APHIS Swine Disease Surveillance,

Monitoring, and Modeling

Kamina Johnson and Matthew BrananU.S. Department of Agriculture

Animal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceVeterinary Services

May 15, 2019

2

APHIS Surveillance

and Monitoring of Swine Diseases

Active/Routine Surveillance

Observational and Passive Surveillance

Surveillance to Support Trade

National Animal Health

Reporting System

(NAHRS)

National Wildlife Disease Program (NWDP)

National Animal Health

Monitoring System

(NAHMS)

Information sources

On-farm surveillance

Diagnostic laboratory

submissions

Slaughter surveillance

On-farm investigations

(esp. FAD)

Certificates of Veterinary Inspection

Border Inspections

3

Diseases of concern

Pro

gra

m/S

urv

eill

an

ce

Dis

ea

se

s •Pseudorabies (PRV)

•Swine brucellosis (SB)

• Influenza A in Swine (IAV-S)

•Classical Swine Fever (CSF)

•Seneca Valley Virus

• (Formerly) Swine Enteric Coronavirus Diseases

•Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV)

•Porcine Deltacoronavirus(PDCoV)

Hig

h-p

rofile

Fo

reig

n A

nim

al

Dis

ea

se

s •Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD)

•African Swine Fever (ASF)

•Classical Swine Fever (CSF)

Oth

er

Rep

ort

ab

le D

ise

ase

s •Swine vesicular disease

•Vesicular stomatitis (VS)

•Rinderpest

•Nipah virus encephalitis

•Antrhax

•Echinococcosis/hydatidosis

•Rabies

•New World screwworm

•Old World screwworm

•Trichinellosis

•Japanese encephalitis

•Porcine Cysticercosis

•Transmissible gastroenteritis

•Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Syndrome (PRRS)

•Tularemia

•Melioidosis

4

National Animal Health Reporting System

(NAHRS)Reporting system for reportable diseases for the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and National List of Reportable Animal Diseases (NLRAD)

Confidential, monthly, State-based reporting for livestock, avian, lagomorph, and aquatic species diseases

Helps to support national level animal health surveillance and trade, especially internationally

5

National Wildlife Disease Program

(NWDP)

Identify damage and risk

Track, monitor, and test

Educate on biosecurity and damage prevention

6

NAHMS Swine

Studies

Periodic, every 5-10 years

Scientifically and statistically

sound

Nationally representative

Collaborative

Questionnaire-and Biologics-

based

Voluntary and non-regulatory

program

7

National Animal Health Monitoring

System (NAHMS)

NAHMS Swine

Studies

Management practices

Production practices

Movement and marketing

Epidemiological factors

Disease presence

Biological samples for diseases of

interest

8

National Animal Health Monitoring

System (NAHMS)

• Classical swine fever (CSF)

• African swine fever (ASF)

• Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)

• Pseudorabies (PRV)

• Swine Brucellosis (SB)

• Influenza A in Swine (IAV-S)

Swine Disease Surveillance

Oral Fluids

Testing

• Biosecure

• Aggregate

• Cost-effective

Potential cost savings using OF samples instead of

individual animal samples in an outbreak setting

$230,940

$111,900

$36,000 $15,750 $0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Control Area Surveillance Zone

Individual Sample Cost

OF Cost

$194,940

$96,150

Swine Disease

Epidemiologic

Modeling

Economic Impact Modeling

13

30

40

50

60

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Breakeven Price Swine ($/cwt)

ISU Base_Type1 Base_Type2

Base_Type3 Base_Type4 Base_Type5

Swine Dysentery• NAHMS Swine 1995,

2000, 2006, 2012 Studies– Prevalence reduction

to 4.3%

– Morbidity rate 5.5%

– Mortality rate 1.8%

• Literature search– Morbidity = 9 days

extra on feed

– Treatment costs $0.81 to $5.05

• Small market impacts in economic model

• Budget cost savings $7.80 per hog, higher returns of 10.6%

Questions?