apex briefing kathleen conley director, projection forces, program analysis and evaluation 1
TRANSCRIPT
APEX Briefing
Kathleen ConleyDirector, Projection Forces, Program Analysis and Evaluation
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Outline
• Economic Outlook• Transforming • Current Analytic Efforts
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U.S. Defense PrioritiesDefending America Today and Tomorrow
• Deter potential adversaries and defend America and American interests
• Counter asymmetric threats
• Fight and win the global war on terror
• Assure readiness of the Armed Forces
• Mitigate surprise
• Ensure U.S. leadership role in the world
• Transform the Department of Defense– Reshaping military capability for the 21st Century
– Changing culture, business practices, processes and organizations for sustained advantage
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Compelling Need for ChangeThe World Has Changed
• This is a period of significant, discontinuous change with great uncertainty:– Globalization – Accelerating rate of technological change– Information age – Homeland security– Non-State as well as state actors– Asymmetric as well as conventional threats– Unrestricted by conventional rules
• Falling barriers to competitive entry– Access to highly capable, low-cost and rapidly changing technologies– Access to capabilities in key domains – space, sea, cyberspace
• Failure to transform risks losing our competitive advantage
Those who do not see the need to change are often those who need it the most.
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Defense Discretionary
Non-Defense Discretionary
Mandatory
Net Interest
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Per
cen
tage
of
GD
PFederal Spending by Category as a Percentage of GDP
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U.S. Unified Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit Projections 2004-2014
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Calendar Year
Th
en Y
ear
$Bill
ion
s
OMB July 2004
CBO September 2004
CBO January 2005
CBO January 2005 + No Sunset on Tax Cuts + AMT Reform + Discretionary Spending Growth at Rate of Nominal GDP Growth + 6 years of OEF & OIF then phased out
White HouseJanuary 2005
OMB February 2005
Budget Deficit Remains Difficult Challenge
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$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Carter Reagan I Reagan II G. Bush Clinton I Clinton II G. W. Bush I G. W. Bush IIFiscal Year
TY
$B
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
President during Budget Submission
TY
$B
ACTUAL
President's Budget FYDP Projections vs. Actual Defense Budget
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Personnel Costs* vs. DoD Topline
FOUO
FOUO
* Source: OUSD(C) and WHS, excludes costs not on the DoD budget (e.g., VA)** Source: WHS, which categorizes contracts as Procurement, RDT&E, or Services*** Retirement, DHP, Family Housing
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
Th
en Y
ear
$ B
illio
ns
Contracts for Services**
DoD Topline
Military Benefits***
MilPers
CivPay
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Personnel Costs* vs. DoD Topline
FOUO
FOUO
* Source: OUSD(C) and WHS, excludes costs not on the DoD budget (e.g., VA)** Source: WHS, which categorizes contracts as Procurement, RDT&E, or Services*** Retirement, DHP, Family Housing
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
% o
f D
oD
To
plin
e
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000C
on
stant $ B
illion
s (Base F
Y05)
CivPay
MilPers
Military Benefits***
Contracts for Services**
Constant $ Topline(right axis)
67%
10
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Con
stan
t F
Y 2
005
$Bil
lion
s
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
R,D,T&E
Procurement
Operations and Maintenance
Military Personnel
DoD Budget Authority by Appropriations Title
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Transformation Principles
• Culture– Balanced risk taking– Innovation– Superior speed – Joint information, content and
awareness
• Operations– Adaptive– Joint and combined– Tailored to specific need – Use all elements of national
power– Information driven
• Business Practice, Process and Organization– Streamlined– Greater flexibility– Timely, decision-quality
information– Integrating processes– Reduced cycle times
• Systems and Capabilities– Integrated – Networked systems– Faster to the point of need
• Precision effects
Improvement needed in all areas to strengthen joint and integrated performance
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The Overall Framework for Change
Historical World View Future Objectives
Central Planning To Adaptive and Dynamic Planning
Fixed, Predictable Threat To Capabilities Against Shifting Threats
Mature Business and Organization To Mix of New and Mature Organizations
Inputs Based Management –
Focus on Programs
To Output Based Management –
Focus on Results
Appropriated Funds – “Cost is Free” To More Market-like and price based
Segmented Information –
Closed Architecture
To Networked Information –
Open Architectures
Stovepiped and Competitive Organizations – “Zero sum Enterprise”
To Aligned Organizations with common and shared objectives
Historical World View Future Objectives Developing Tools
Central Planning Adaptive and Dynamic Planning
Changes to War Planning and Support Tools
Fixed, Predictable Threat Capabilities Against Shifting Threats
Capabilities Based Planning Joint Operational Concepts
New Modeling Approaches
Mature Business and Organization
Mix of New and Mature Organizations
SJTF, UCP realignment, OSD changes
Inputs Based Management –
Focus on Programs
Output Based Management
Focus on Results
Global Force Management
Balanced Risk Scorecard
Metrics
Appropriated Funds – “Cost is Free”
More Market-like and price based
Offsets Required
Portfolio Thinking
Segmented Information Closed Architecture
Networked Information –
Open Architectures
Horizontal Integration
GIG Standards
BMMP
Stovepiped and Competitive Organizations – “Zero sum Enterprise”
Aligned Organizations with common and shared objectives
Capabilities Equivalencies
Global Force Management
Integrating Processes/JCIDS
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Integrating Processes
Planning, Programming &
Budgeting System
Requirements Acquisition
StrategicPlanning
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What Is the Purpose of PPBE?
• Provide Civilian Control and Strategic Direction – Centralizes decisionmaking in the Office of the Secretary of Defense– Manages allocation of resources to meet the Secretary’s goals
• Create a joint (DoD-wide) program– Integrates individual components’ inputs into a single defense program– Ensures stakeholders have a voice; builds consensus
• Provide financial “checks and balances”– Promotes efficient and effective allocation of funds– Ensures the cost of defense programs are realistic / affordable
• Provide basis for justifying programs and budgets to the White House and Congress
PPBE is the principal tool used by the Secretary and the Deputy Secretary in managing the Department of Defense
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The PPBS: Six Principles
• Decisions should be based on explicit criteria of national interest, not on compromises among institutional forces.
• Requirements and costs must be considered simultaneously.
• Major decisions should be made by choices among explicit, balanced, feasible alternatives.
• The Secretary should have an active analytic staff to provide him with relevant data and unbiased perspectives.
• Open and explicit analysis, available to all parties, must form the basis for major decisions.
• A multiyear force and financial plan is required to project the consequences of present decisions into the future.
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5 Principles of PA&E
• PA&E will provide independent and objective analysis.
• PA&E’s analyses and advice will be fact based.• PA&E is committed to open thinking.• PA&E is people-centered. We treat people fairly
and respectfully.• PA&E operates in an environment of trust and
confidence.
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Analytic Agenda
• Department-wide agreement to make major, joint analysis efforts more effective, efficient, relevant
• Building blocks include:– National Security Strategy and other strategic and planning guidance– Scenarios and Data (Defense Planning Scenarios and Multi-Service
Force Deployment)– Studies and Wargames (e.g., OA-03, OA-04, OA-05, and MCS)– Results in a package comprising a scenario, concept of operations,
and integrated data used by DoD Components as a foundation for strategic analysis (called an analytical baseline)
• Highly collaborative and transparent: OSD, JS, Agencies, Services, and CoComs participate
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PA&E Proposals for Ongoing Analysis*
• Joint Air Dominance• Ground Forces Capabilities• Future Combat System and Army Modularity • Medical Readiness Review and Health Care Benefit Costs• Compensation Review• Supply Chain Management• Manpower Submission Process• Space Industrial Base• Future Strategic Forces• Airborne/Area Moving Target Indication/Indicator (AMTI) and Ground Moving Target Indication/Indicator
(GMTI) Tradeoffs• Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Communications• Persistent ISR• Net Centric Ops• MILSATCOM Capabilities• Mobility Capabilities Study• Aerial Refueling• Tactical Airlift and & Aerial Refueling
*Subject to guidance from IPT heads
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Biggest Challenges
• Facts and Transparency• Linking Strategy, Plans, Resources and Execution• Raising decision level to capability and portfolio• Balancing Risk• Developing, Aligning and Motivating Talent
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PA&E Organizational ChartDIRECTOR
PROGRAM ANALYSIS & EVALUATION
Brad BerksonPRINCIPAL DEPUTY DIRECTOR
VADM Stanley R. Szemborski, USN
Resource Management & Operations Division
Janet S. Felts, Director
DEPUTY DIRECTOR(STRATEGIC AND SPACE PROGRAMS)
Michael L. Ioffredo
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Programs Division
Matthew Schaffer , Director
C4 and Information Programs Division
Scott A. Comes, Director
Strategic Defensive and Space Programs Division
Dennis K. Evans, Director
DEPUTY DIRECTOR(THEATER ASSESSMENTS AND PLANNING)
Eric J. Coulter
Study and Analytical Support Division
James N. Bexfield, Director
Joint Data Support Office
James G. Stevens, Director
Joint Warfare Systems Office
Simulation Analysis Center
Al Sweetser, Director
Projection Forces Division
Kathleen M. Conley, Director
Regional Assessment and Modeling Division
Timothy E. Bright, Director
DEPUTY DIRECTOR(GENERAL PURPOSE PROGRAMS)
James L. Johnson
Force Planning Division
Joseph R. Nogueira, Director
Land Forces Division
Mark F. Cancian, Director
Naval Forces Division
Charles P. Werchado, Director
Tactical Air Forces Division
James L. Johnson (Acting)
DEPUTY DIRECTOR(RESOURCE ANALYSIS)
Richard P. Burke
Economic and Manpower Analysis Division
Jerome E. Pannullo, Director
Force and Infrastructure Cost Analysis Division
Krystyna M. Kolesar, Director
Operations Analysis and Procurement Planning Division
Steven R. Miller, Director
Programming and Fiscal Economics Division
Teresa W. Gerton, Director
Weapon Systems Cost Analysis Division
Steven R. Miller (Acting)