APES 9/14-9/15 No Warm-Up!

Log in to a netbookPlease put your age structure diagram for your chosen country by the matching table tent. #2 on worksheet- change Japan to FranceRotate through stations looking at the diagrams and then answer the remaining discussion questions.

Due Dates, etc.FYI- Unit Test will be on 22nd (blue) and 23rd (gold) Ch. 7 Reading Assignment due 21st (gold) and 22nd (blue)Blue days- have at least read the chapter and done

the multiple choice for Friday the 18th

Learning TargetI can describe the 4 stages of Demographic Transition and explain why they correlate to a certain age structure diagram.

7.2 Billion: How did we get here?◦Cool animation of growth world wide http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion

Human Population Growth Human Population Growth HistoricallyHistorically

A. Early Hunter Gatherers1. Nomadic, with a strong sense of the earth2. Practiced intentional birth control

B. Rise of Agriculture1. Necessary for Survival

a. Animals became extinct via predation and altered habitat

b. Humans began to cultivate own food

Human Population Growth Human Population Growth HistoricallyHistorically

C. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities1. Food produced in country, consumed in city

a. Food wastes are no longer returned to soilb. Soil becomes less productive

2. Waste of populations concentrated in cities3. Population control in medieval societies

a. Infanticideb. Plagues

Human Population Growth Human Population Growth HistoricallyHistorically

D. Industrializationa. Children valued as cheap source of income and cheap laborb. Exponential growth of populations

By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Droppeda. Rise in standards of livingb. Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introducedc. Increase in the cost of child rearing

Increasing our Carrying Capacity

•Technology has allowed us to raise Earth’s carrying capacity for our species time and again.

•Tool-making, agriculture, and industrialization each enabled humans to sustain greater populations.

Over 95% of this Over 95% of this increaseincrease

will take place in will take place in “Developing“DevelopingCountries”Countries”

Population Population ProjectionsProjections

Patterns in developed vs. developing countries

Demographic Demographic TransitionTransition

Movement of a nation from high to low pop. growth as it develops economically:◦ Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high◦ Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high;

growth rate rises◦ Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises;

growth rate falls◦ Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to

a negative rate

Demographic Transition: Stages

Pop. Pyramids at Pop. Pyramids at Diff. StagesDiff. Stages

Stage 1Stage 1High birth rates, high (at times erratic) death rates, low growth ratesStage for much of human historyNo current countries

Stage 2Stage 2High birth rates, declining

death rates, rising growth ratesImprovements in sanitation

(water) and medicineIn U.S., Europe during

Industrial RevolutionIn developing countries since the 50s/60sMuch of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

Demographic Trap Population Path of Most Less-Developed Countries “Trapped” in Stage 2

◦ Before 1970, these countries were poised to make transition thanks to economic growth

◦ Since 1970, econ. growth has not kept pace with population

◦ High birth and low death rates result in explosive population growth

◦ Downward spiral in standard of living

Demographic Fatigue

◦Lack of $$$ and ability to deal with natural disasters and disease

◦Possibility that countries suffering from demographic fatigues could slip back into Stage 1 of demographic transition

Stage 3Stage 3Continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates, growth rates decline from high to lower levelsChange in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rateEconomic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)

Stage 4 & Stage 4 & 55

Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates

◦ United States today

Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)◦ several countries of Europe today (Austria)

Effects of Population Effects of Population DeclineDecline

As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline

60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume◦ more medical care◦ Social Security◦ costly public services

Labor shortages require automation & immigration

Demographic Transition ActivityDue next time!Graph + pieces arranged in proper order and glued/taped down.

Exit Task 9/14 & 9/15 On the provided half-sheet:

Name: __________________

1. What demographic

Transition phase is

Canada in?

2. Why does this phase

result in this particular

graph shape? (give at

least two reasons).

Where is the world in the Demographic Transition?

Stage 2! – There are many countries “stuck”

Why does the world need to move forward?

Factors that will influence this process…

Empowerment of women

Family planning programs

Poverty

HIV/AIDS

Human Population Human Population DynamicsDynamics

There are just three sources of change in population size —1.Fertility2.Mortality

"natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births

3.MigrationNet migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

TFR and RFRTFR and RFR Total fertility rate (TFR)

◦ The average number of children born to a woman◦ Average in developed countries = 1.5◦ Average in developing countries = 3.8◦ Worldwide 1990: 3.1 Now: 2.5

Replacement fertility rate (RFR)◦ The # of children a couple must have to replace themselves◦ A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and

child mortality rates◦ Africa RFR = 2.5

Falling growth rates doesn’t mean fewer people!

Falling rates of growth do not mean a decreasing population, but only that rates of increase are slowing

http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/between-1960-and-2012-world-average-fertility-rate-halved-25-births-woman

Female Education and TFR

•Female literacy, school enrollment, and access to family planning are correlated with total fertility rate.

In 2007, 54% of married women worldwide used contraception; ◦ China = 86%; the U.S. = 68%; 20

African nations < 10%

•

What Is Family Planning?

Measures enabling parents to control number of children.Goals of Family Planning- healthy children that parents can care for; parents can have # children they desire.

Blue = family planning accessibleRed = family planning not accessible

The Int’l Conference on Pop. and Development

In 1994 Cairo, Egypt, 179 nations called on all governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 yearsOffer better education and health care and alleviate

poverty, disease, and sexism Controversy in the U.S.• Currently, GOP House of Reps. is working on legislation to limit Planned Parenthood•Employers affiliated with religious orgs. have asked for exceptions to Affordable Care Act’s coverage of contraception (“Obamacare”)

Influencing Population Influencing Population SizeSize

Most countries restrict immigration◦ Canada, Australia, U.S. - most immigration

Involuntary immigration results from◦ armed conflict◦ environmental degradation◦ natural disaster --> environmental refugees

Migration from rural to urban areas

B. China’s Program1. Nation With Best Known Population Control Program2. Reasons Chinese Government Initiated Population Control

Measuresa. Freshwater and food at a premium for nation’s populationb. Country experiencing population momentum

3. Government Perks / Coercive Measures for Citizen Compliancea. Free education and health careb. Increased personal and family incomesc. Increased legal marrying age for womend. Contraceptives, abortions, and sterilizations free of chargee. Preferential housing and retirement income

Rewards and Penalties to reduce births

What might work:◦ encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children◦ reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families◦ don’t penalize for already existing larger family◦ increase poor family’s economic status

Case Studies - India Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 3.4 but population grow is still exponential -1.9%

Disappointing results due to:◦ poor planning◦ bureaucratic inefficiency◦ low status of women◦ extreme poverty◦ lack of administrative & financial support

Case Studies - China Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates

Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict:◦ postpone childbearing ◦ only one child/family -->benefits◦ effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would have mean disaster

Cutting Global Population Growth U. N.Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994

◦ 8 goals to be met by 2015 (p. 276)◦ are these goals wishful thinking?

Replacement level fertility can be met in 15-30 years as shown by Japan, Thailand…

Invest in family planning, reduce poverty, and elevate status of women

Population and the environment

Population growth can lead to environmental degradation.

Overpopulation in Africa’s Sahel region has led to overgrazing of semi-arid lands. (China obviously also an ex.)

Affluence and the environment

Poverty can lead to environmental degradation…

BUT

wealth and resource consumption can produce even more severe and far-reaching environmental impacts.

The wealth gap•Residents of developed nations have larger houses, more possessions, and more money than residents of developing nations.

•The richest 20% of the world’s people consumes 86% of its resources, and has > 80 times the income of the poorest 20%.

Food and Hunger 840 million people are hungry

799 million of those are in developing countries

The other 40 million are in developed countries

½ of the US population relies on food stamps

Food and Hunger 1.2 billion are overweight

30% of the U.S. population is obese

Why does this dichotomy exist?

POVERTY

Poverty in Developing Nations

Trade imbalances exist between developed nations and developing nations.

U.S. has outsourced production to these poverty-stricken nations.

Many will work under terrible conditions and long hours because it is a better alternative to continued poverty.

Ecological Footprints Environmental Impact Equation (Paul Ehrlich Formula)

I = P x A x T

I= Total Impact P= Population size A= Affluence T= Level of technology

Population growth affects the environment The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S◦ Our total impact (I) on the environment results from the

interaction of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T), with an added sensitivity (S) factor

◦ Population = individuals need space and resources◦ Affluence = greater per capita resource use◦ Technology = increased exploitation of resources◦ Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure◦ Further model refinements include education, laws, ethics

Humanity uses 1/3 of all the Earth’s net primary production