“new 1981–2010 climatological normals for croatia and...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
“New 1981–2010 climatological normals
for Croatia and comparison to previous
1961–1990 and 1971–2000 normals”
Irena Nimac
Melita Perčec Tadić Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
Department for Climatological Research and Applied Climatology
![Page 2: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Climatological Normal (CLINO) - “Average value of climatological data computed for relatively long
period, at least 30 years” (WMO, 1988.)
- Two main purposes:
1. reference to which we can compare recent or current observations → standard period (1961–1990)
2. estimate of conditions that are most likely to be experienced at given location → more recent 30-year period (1981–2010)
- Requirements: homogeneity and completeness of data
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
![Page 3: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Area of interest
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
• Main climate modifiers: - Adriatic and Mediteranean Sea - Orography of Dinarids - Panonian Plain • 3 MAIN CLIMATIC REGIONS:
1. Continental 2. Mountain 3. Maritime
![Page 4: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data and methods
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
- Daily data from 20 meteorological stations (DHMZ) - Changes in temperature and precipitation CLINO at annual and seasonal scale for periods: → 1961—1990 (6190) → 1971—2000 (7100) → 1981—2010 (8110) - Statistical significance: → two sample Student’s t-test for differences of mean (temperature) → nonparametric Wilcoxon rank-sum test (precipitation) - Changes in mean maximum and minimum temperature, temperature and precipitation indices
- Köppen-Geiger climate classes: ClimClass library
![Page 5: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Temperature CLINO – T8110
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
![Page 6: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Annual T-CLINO changes
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
![Page 7: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Annual T-CLINO changes
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
[°C] 7100-6190 8110-7100 8110-6190
Δt_ANN 0.2 0.4 0.6
![Page 8: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
[°C] Δt_DJF Δt_MAM Δt_JJA Δt_SON 7100-6190 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.1 8110-7100 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 8110-6190 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3
Seasonal T-CLINO changes
![Page 9: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
[°C] Δt_DJF Δt_MAM Δt_JJA Δt_SON 7100-6190 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.1 8110-7100 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 8110-6190 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3
Seasonal T-CLINO changes
![Page 10: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Mean max and min temperature
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
[°C] tmax tmin 7100-6190 0.3 0.2 8110-7100 0.4 0.4 8110-6190 0.7 0.6
![Page 11: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Warm temp. indices
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
Cold temp. indices [number of
days] tmin < 0°C tmax < 0°C tmin ≤ -10°C 7100-6190 -1.2 -1.9 -1.3 8110-7100 -1.9 0.0 0.3 8110-6190 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0
[number of days] tmax ≥ 25°C tmax ≥ 30°C tmin ≥ 20°C
7100-6190 3.6 2.8 1.8 8110-7100 6.4 5.9 3.5 8110-6190 10.0 8.7 5.2
![Page 12: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Precipitation CLINO – R8110
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
![Page 13: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Annual R-CLINO changes
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
![Page 14: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Annual R-CLINO changes
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
[%] 7100-6190 8110-7100 8110-6190 ΔR_ANN -2.1 -0.2 -2.2
![Page 15: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
Seasonal R-CLINO changes
[%] ΔR_DJF ΔR_MAM ΔR_JJA ΔR_SON 7100-6190 -6.2 -4.8 -5.2 6.0 8110-7100 3.1 -1.7 -3.3 0.6 8110-6190 -3.2 -6.4 -8.2 6.7
![Page 16: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
Seasonal R-CLINO changes
[%] ΔR_DJF ΔR_MAM ΔR_JJA ΔR_SON 7100-6190 -6.2 -4.8 -5.2 6.0 8110-7100 3.1 -1.7 -3.3 0.6 8110-6190 -3.2 -6.4 -8.2 6.7
![Page 17: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
Seasonal R-CLINO changes
[%] ΔR_DJF ΔR_MAM ΔR_JJA ΔR_SON 7100-6190 -6.2 -4.8 -5.2 6.0 8110-7100 3.1 -1.7 -3.3 0.6 8110-6190 -3.2 -6.4 -8.2 6.7
![Page 18: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Lower prec. treeshold
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
[number of days] Rd ≥ 10 mm Rd ≥ 20 mm Rd ≥ 50 mm
7100-6190 -1.0 -0.4 0.1 8110-7100 -0.1 0.5 0.0 8110-6190 -1.1 0.1 0.1
Higher prec. treeshold
[number of days] Rd ≥ 0.1 mm Rd ≥ 1 mm Rd ≥ 5 mm
7100-6190 -3.3 -3.0 -2.0 8110-7100 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 8110-6190 -5.0 -4.3 -2.6
![Page 19: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Köppen-Geiger climate classification
• Vegetation-based system that combines average annual and monthly temperatures and their seasonality
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
1st 2nd 3rd
A (tropical) f, m, w
B (arid) W, S h, k
C (temperate) s, w, f a, b, c
D (snow-forest) s, w, f a, b, c, d
E (polar) T, F
KG classes for Croatia: 1. Continental – Cfb (fully humid (f) warm
temperate (C) climate with warm summer (b))
2. Mountain – Dfc (fully humid (f) snow-forest (D) climate with cold summer (c))
3. Coastal – Csa and Cfa (warm temperate (C) climate with hot summer (a) and dry summer (s) or fully humid (f) precipitation regime)
![Page 20: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Changes in Köppen-Geiger classes
Geostatistics and Machine Learning Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
Till the end of 2000:
• Dubrovnik, Cfa → Csa
from fully humid (f) to dry summer (s) precipitation regime
• Osijek, Cfbx → Cfb
lost its slightly wettest beginning of the summer (x) compared
to the summer’s end
Till the end of 2010:
• Mali Lošinj and Zadar, Cfa → Csa
from fully humid (f) to dry summer (s) precipitation regime
• Puntijarka (not shown), Dfb → Cfb
from snow-forest (D) to warm-temperate (C) climate
![Page 21: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Conclusion → significant increase in mean temperature at all stations (the largest in summer), as well as increase
in mean maximum and minimum temperature and corresponding increase/decrease in warm/cold temperature indices
→ dual nature of precipitation response: increase in eastern part (the largest in autumn) and decrease along the coast (the largest in summer)
– for number of days with stronger precipitation (10, 20 and 50 mm) relative increase in eastern part (convective precipitation) and decrease along the coast (long-term precipitation)
→ changes in KG classes mainly due to changes in precipitation regime
– most eastern station losing more humid beginning of the summer compared to the end
– at most southern station and stations of middle Adriatic warm temperate climate with hot summers changed from fully humid to summer dry precipitation regime
→ future work: KG classes for Croatia from gridded monthly temperature and precipitation fields
Geostatistics and Machine Learning
Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.
![Page 22: “New 1981–2010 climatological normals for Croatia and ...geomla.grf.bg.ac.rs/site_media/static/presentations/day_2/5/GeoMLA2016... · Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042223/5eca6aa9bb58ce548949ef93/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
THANK YOU!
This work has been supported in part by Croatian Science Foundation under the project 2831 (CARE).
Geostatistics and Machine Learning
Conference, Belgrade, 23.06.-24.06.2016.