anticipatingfuture skills - townsville · photographer: welcome to the fold. net interstate...
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14 November 2018
Anticipating Future Skills -Townsville
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Jobs Queensland
A voice for industry and the regions
- anticipate future skill needs
- dedicated engagement, research and
analytics capability
- workforce development and planning
- a conduit between industry,
Government and training
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Anticipating Future Skills
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Anticipating Future Skills project
• Expert forum held November 2016 to co-design principles for developing a place-based approach to anticipating skills needs.
• Combination of scenario planning and economic modelling to 2022
• Baseline scenario developed utilising Queensland Treasury Budget forecasts
• Three plausible future scenarios to help manage future uncertainty
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Scenario development
• In late 2017, workshops conducted across North, Central and Southern Queensland
• Focus on the impact of various scenarios on regional economy, industries and labour markets
• Feedback also sought via survey
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The Scenarios
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• To increase technological growth such that average labour productivity of all industries in Queensland is 25 base points higher than the baseline each year between 2017-18 and 2021-22.
HE Tech, Underwood. Photographer: Welcome to the Fold.
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Net interstate migration flows between Queensland and other states, 2016-17
Queensland interstate migration by age group – ten years to 2014-15
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0 - 14 15-64 65 +
Source: QGSO
Source: ABS 3412.0 – Migration, Australia
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• An increase in net interstate migration to Queensland of 30,000 beginning in 2018; while international migration remains at 23,000 per annum over the forecast period.
• The composition of interstate migration to reflect the age composition of interstate migrants.
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External Impact
Source: Queensland Treasury, 2017
• That the price of iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal falls 50 per cent from their respective baseline prices between 2017-18 and 2021-22.
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The Modelling
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Townsville SA4 (ASGS Code 318), 2016
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Model outputs
• Industry data – ANZSIC Group (3 digit) 214 Industry Groups
• Occupation data – ANZSCO Unit Group (4 digit) 358 Occupation Unit Groups
• Australian Standard Classification of Education Level of Education (e.g. Bachelor degree) Field of Education (e.g. Food, Hospitality and Personal Services)
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Testing and Validation
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Testing and validation of draft outputs
• Stakeholders were presented with an overview of the draft modelling outputs
• Feedback was incorporated to ensure that results accurately reflect the realities of the current and future workforce
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Key Findings
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Employment to 2022 across all scenarios, Townsville
94,379
101,898
101,835
103,359
101,637
Baseline 2017
Baseline 2022
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
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New jobs in Townsville in 2022, all scenarios
7,519 7,456
8,980
7,258
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
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Impact of scenarios, Townsville and Queensland (change from 2022 baseline)
-0.37
1.25
0.03
-0.26
1.43
-0.06
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
Townsville Queensland
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Jobs growth varies across regions (baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022)
16.2
10.99.7 9.4
8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.35.7
3.6 3.2 2.1
-2.9-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Ipsw
ich
Gol
d C
oast
Mor
eton
Bay
- Nor
th
Mor
eton
Bay
- So
uth
Loga
n- B
eaud
eser
t
Suns
hine
Coa
st
Que
ensla
nd
Tow
nsvi
lle
Cai
rns
Toow
oom
ba
Brisb
ane
Wid
e Ba
y
Darli
ng D
owns
- M
aran
oa
Fitz
roy
Mac
kay
Que
ensla
nd O
utba
ck
(%)
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Jobs growth varies across industries7,519
3,017
830 673 580 579 468 339 322 308 257 214 162 77 75 57 29
-7 -125 -335 -20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
(%)
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Baseline Employment for top 15 industry sub-divisions - 2017 to 2022
Industry Sub-Divisions No. employed 2017
Change by 2022 (%)
• Food and Beverage Services 6,243 0.9• Medical and Other Health Care Services 6,125 16.0• Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (Except Computer System Design and Related
Services) 5,490 13.7
• Public Administration 5,435 6.0• Other Store-Based Retailing 5,346 5.1• Construction Services 4,940 5.5• Preschool and School Education 4,611 8.2• Hospitals 3,895 17.6• Social Assistance Services 3,497 24.4• Food Retailing 3,328 3.4• Road Transport 2,380 10.4• Tertiary Education 2,203 12.1• Repair and Maintenance 2,126 10.1• Food Product Manufacturing 1,999 11.7• Residential Care Services 1,842 27.3
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6,138 6,163
5,109 4,7944,318 4,349
3,721 3,5563,093 2,898
2,743 2,543 2,457 2,420 2,466
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
(%)
Jobs growth varies across occupations (baseline scenario, 2017 – 2022)
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A more educated workforce
26.1
15.714.6
13.4
7.6
-2.4-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
PostgraduateDegree
Graduate Diplomaand Graduate
Certificate
Bachelor DegreeLevel
AdvancedDiploma and
Associate DegreeLevel
Certificate Level No post school
No. Employed 2017 (LHS) No. Employed 2022 (LHS) Growth % (RHS)
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Exploring the Data
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Anticipating Future Skills report
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Industry and regional snapshots
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Jobs Queensland Website
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Data tools: Regions
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Data tools: Industries
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Data tools: Occupations
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Qualifications
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jobsqueensland.qld.gov.au/future-of-work jobsqueensland.qld.gov.au/resources/jobs-queensland-e-communiques
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Future skills.Future workforce.
www.jobsqueensland.qld.gov.au