anticipating extreme hydrologic events
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AMS Corporate Forum Session 6: Weather, Climate and Water Resources 22-23 March 2007, Washington DC. Anticipating Extreme Hydrologic Events. …how real-time data empowers communities and individuals to survive and recover from disasters. Kevin G. Stewart, P.E. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Anticipating Extreme Anticipating Extreme Hydrologic EventsHydrologic Events
……how real-time data empowers how real-time data empowers communities and individuals to communities and individuals to
survive and recover from disasterssurvive and recover from disasters
AMS Corporate ForumAMS Corporate ForumSession 6: Weather, Climate and Water ResourcesSession 6: Weather, Climate and Water Resources
22-23 March 2007, Washington DC22-23 March 2007, Washington DC
Kevin G. Stewart, P.E.Kevin G. Stewart, P.E.President, National Hydrologic Warning CouncilPresident, National Hydrologic Warning CouncilManager, Information Services and Flood Warning ProgramManager, Information Services and Flood Warning ProgramUrban Drainage and Flood Control DistrictUrban Drainage and Flood Control DistrictDenver, ColoradoDenver, Colorado
Katrina
Tsunami
Central Valley Levees
Extreme Hydrologic EventsExtreme Hydrologic Events
Big Thompson
Dam Failure
Opportunities to Opportunities to address needsaddress needs
Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge
Katrina caused Katrina caused many communities many communities to ask what their to ask what their “worst case” natural “worst case” natural disaster might look disaster might look like and how they like and how they could best prepare could best prepare for such an event.for such an event.
Boulder Boulder ColoradoColorado
Local Local InvestmentInvestment
Flood Prediction Center
PrivateMeteorologist
Automated weatherstation
ALERT Rain Gage
Satellite-linkedUSGS stream
gage
ALERTrain/stream gage
Real-Time Hydrologic DataReal-Time Hydrologic Data
Not too interesting for Not too interesting for most people…most people…
……until people like you make until people like you make products like these…products like these…
……and these.and these.
Empowered to develop plans Empowered to develop plans to warn proactively…to warn proactively…
The drainage basinThe drainage basin descriptions, facilities, hydrology, flood history, descriptions, facilities, hydrology, flood history,
problem areas, problem areas, flood routing/timingflood routing/timing
Decision aidsDecision aids ALERT system, flash flood guidance, ALERT system, flash flood guidance,
inundation areasinundation areas CommunicationsCommunications Meteorological supportMeteorological support
National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service Private MeteorologistPrivate Meteorologist
Flood threat recognition and warning Flood threat recognition and warning processprocess
Procedures and general responsibilitiesProcedures and general responsibilities Public disseminationPublic dissemination Media contactsMedia contacts Annual revisions and practicesAnnual revisions and practices
……and practice those plans.and practice those plans.
Empowered to IntegrateEmpowered to Integrate
Real-time synchronization of surface rainfall measurements, radar imagery and storm track forecasting model
Opportunities to EducateOpportunities to Educate
Opportunities to ShareOpportunities to Share
National Hydrologic Warning CouncilNational Hydrologic Warning CouncilJune 11-14, 2007June 11-14, 2007
nhwc.udfcd.org
Opportunities to help a Opportunities to help a neighborneighbor
Empowered to improve Empowered to improve communicationscommunications
Empower people to protect Empower people to protect themselvesthemselves
When if comes to determining When if comes to determining wise use of limited resources…wise use of limited resources…
……do not underestimate the do not underestimate the value of the mundane.value of the mundane.
AMS Statement onAMS Statement onClimate ChangeClimate Change
Final remarksDespite the uncertainties noted above, there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. Focusing on the next 30 years, convergence among emission scenarios and model results suggest strongly that increasing air temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift snowmelt timing, reduce crop production and rangeland fertility, and cause continued melting of the ice caps
and sea level rise. Important goals for future work include the need to Important goals for future work include the need to understand the relation of climate at the state and regional level understand the relation of climate at the state and regional level to the patterns of global climate andto the patterns of global climate and to reverse the decline in to reverse the decline in observational networksobservational networks that are so critical to accurate climate that are so critical to accurate climate monitoring and prediction.monitoring and prediction.
Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of the impacts of climate change. Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Some continued climate change is inevitable, and the policy debate should also consider the best ways to adapt to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.