anti-terrorist force protection: harbor tactical 3d simulations for risk, consequence assessment don...
TRANSCRIPT
Anti-Terrorist Force Protection:Harbor Tactical 3D Simulations
for Risk, Consequence Assessment
Don Brutzman
International Maritime Protection Symposium13 December 2005
Outline
MotivationBusiness model, access considerationsAgent-based tactics modelingApplicationsCluster computations to support analystX3D Graphics modelingRecommendations
Motivation
Defend against small-boat attack• Evolution of studies on USS COLE attack
Assess risk, vulnerabilities, consequences, alternatives
Analysis to support 3 classes of customers• Harbor defense funding priorities• Harbor operations, actual & projected• Ships entering port, joining defenders
AT/FP technical approach
Model tactical layout of harbor, facilities • Agent-based situated tactics for each player• 3D visualization
Open standards and open source• NPS agent toolkit: discrete-event Simkit/Viskit• Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics• Distributed Interactive Simulation Protocol
Scalable, repeatable methodology• Suitable for data-driven production, repetition
Business model
Too many proprietary toolsets• High cost, not sustainable, not interoperable• Over time, essential data lost to further use
Daylight encourages good behavior• Business-friendly open-source licensing• Repeatable capabilities extendable over
Web
Nothing succeeds like success • Use proven best practices, everyone wins
Consortia partnerships essential
Stable, evolving Web-based standards • Also need best practices• Capable partners, industry and individual
Web3D Consortium• Real-time 3D communications using X3D• http://www.web3D.org
World Wide Consortium for the Grid (W2COG)• http://www.w2cog.org
Access considerations
Hardest technical challenges are science and interoperation, not classification rules• F=MA, E=IR, et cetera, writ large & connected
XML used for all data• Validatable, with self-describing metadata
Build unclassified versions, preferably using public well-documented resources
Modify data (not code) for classified use
Key Technologies
Extensible Markup Language (XML)• Validatable data, binary compression• Web Services for message exchange
Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics• ISO-approved interactive visualization
Our approach• Demonstrate military value of new technology• Collaborate, implement, evaluate, report, repeat
XML in 10 Points http://www.w3.org/XML/1999/XML-in-10-points
XML is for structuring dataXML looks a bit like HTMLXML is text, but isn't meant
to be readXML is verbose by designXML is a family of
technologies
XML is new, but not that new
XML leads HTML to XHTMLXML is modularXML is basis for RDF and
the Semantic WebXML is license-free,
platform-independent and well-supported350+ member companies & institutions
in World Wide Web Consortium (W3C)already understand the business case
Extensible Markup Language
Potential problem: XML size, bandwidth
Replacing data “stovepipes” with XML might be difficult since most tactical streams are highly compressed• Tactical showstopper for GIG architectures
Common problem in many domainsCandidate binary-XML solutions exist
• NPS XSBC, Sun’s Fast Infoset, others• Continuing W3C working group effort provides metrics,
use cases and process, working to produce: • Efficient XML Interchange (EXI) standard effort
underway, where “efficient” = smaller + faster • http://www.w3.org/XML/Binary
XML encoding for validation benefitsXML schema holds adequate informationTokenization of elements, attributesStrong data typing of value payloadsLosslessMore efficient than compressed numeric text
XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)
XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)
Conclusion: XSBC size, speed already better than gzip!
4.2 MB 42.9 MB 85.6 MB 29.8 MB 3.5 MB
smallest size, parsing speedup 4-7x !!
originals typical
compression
Extensible Modeling & Simulation Framework
XMSF is Web services for all manner of M&SA composable set of standards, profiles, and
recommended practices for web-based M&SFoundational precepts: Internet network
technologies, Extensible Markup Language (XML)-based languages, and service-oriented architectures for simple messaging
Enable a new generation of distributed M&S applications to emerge, develop, interoperate with tactical systems
Many easily repeatable exemplars using Web Services
http://www.MovesInstitute.org/xmsf
Simkit, Viskit, Diskit
Discrete Event Simulation (DES)Methodology, Open-Source
Implementation
Viskit tool for Simkit
Visual tool for building, analyzing Simkit modelsWell-understood methodology for Discrete Event Simulation (DES)
Professional qualityUnlocks years of NPS student-research effort
• with reduced programming
Digitizing NPS courses for continued analyst use
Simkit technical approach
Well-tested Java class libraries• DES event queue runs quickly or in real time• Event graphs define classes of interest• Assembly instantiates entities, collects
statistics
Visual model• Logical, inspectable definition of relationships• Saved as validated XML• Autogenerates Java source code• Analysts get quality code (without being gurus)
Attacker event graph 1
Attacker event graph 2
Visual model saved as XML
XML model version converted to Java source, when needed by client or cluster
Code generation from XML and corresponding Java compilation are immediate
Viskit tactical scenarios
Diverse real-world locations and military players
Friendly, neutral and attacker entities2D tactical layout with 3D visualization
• Networked DIS for X3D playback
Multiple scenarios under development• Indian Island refueling pier – “hello world”• ABOT oil terminal, Bremerton waterfront
Warfighter understandability is essential
Defender event graph
Neutral shipping event graph
Assembly connects event graphs
Tactical supercomputing and linux cluster support for analysts
TrendsCommodity processorsInexpensive networkingFree, off-the-shelf, open-source softwareCheap storageInternet web standards
Leading toCluster SupercomputersInexpensive, deployableScalable computing resource (just add PC boxes)Shared via web standards orstandalone
Tactical supercomputing
Tactical supercomputing
Linux clusters can create new resources• 5 off-the-shelf new PC boxes + disk storage• $10K = 10 processors = 10 Gigaflop • Refrigerator-rack footprint easily fits shipboard • Industry can provide even higher capabilities
Exploring intermediate-level resources for previously supercomputer-level problems• Consistent access via grid/web services
Applied: Viskit Design of Experiments
Cluster statisics via web page
So what is a cluster good for?
First test and view basic tactical scenarios, then
Conduct massive replications for statistics• Analyst Design of Experiments (DOE) panel• Latin Hypercube scheme varies design points• Simulation “experiments” are repeatable due to
pseudo-random number generator distributions
But wait, there’s more…• Replay “outliers” to assess vulnerability, learn
exactly why certain hostile scenarios succeeded
X3D Graphics modeling
ISO-standard 3D graphics interchange for the Web
Emerging Application Suite
SavageStudio authoring for creating scenarios• Builds both X3D scenes and Viskit assemblies
Viskit discrete-event simulation tool• Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS)
protocol for real-time operation• Cluster control
X3D visualization of scenario progress• using open-source Xj3D browser
Analytic assessment report generator
ABOT oil terminal
Scenario snapshots
Bremerton harbor
Scenario snapshots
Analytic assessment report generator
Automatically integrate analytic products created during problem setup, exploration
Prompt for analyst comments at appropriate locations in the report
Success criteria: thorough, easyFirst study proposed: Pearl Harbor, 1Q 2006
• Thesis product, LT Pat Sullivan USN• Work in progress
Related Work
Autonomous Undermanned Vehicle Workbench
AUV Workbench
Underwater, air, surface unmanned vehiclesBuild scientific tactical decision aid (TDA) that
includes full-fidelity physics of motion, collision, sensing• Rehearsal: mission planning• Reality: real-time tasking and monitoring• Replay: playback telemetry
Multiple sponsors & partnersOpen source, open standards, new techology
• Extensible 3D Graphics (X3D) for large worlds• XML, binary compression for GIG Web Services
REMUS mission search,
from above
REMUS mission search, from
behind
Conclusions and Recommendations
Conclusions, Recommendations
Tool development is now mature enough to pursue combined modeling effort• Singapore: harbor, island, lines of approach• Straits of Malacca
Open standards, open source for interoperability• Access + sharing issues appear sensitive,
solvable
Collaborative efforts welcome
Don Brutzman
[email protected] http://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzman
Code USW/Br, Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey California 93943-5000 USA
1.831.656.2149 voice1.831.656.7599 fax
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