anti-cavity toothpaste consumer modeling
TRANSCRIPT
ANTI-CAVITY TOOTHPASTE DESIGN
By Michele Johnson, Bonnie Grider
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
• Also known as Dental Caries– Most prevalent and costly
infectious disease in the U.S.– $78 billion spent on dental
services/year in U.S.• Occur when tooth enamel and
the underlying tooth decay• Cause - mainly Streptococcus
mutans• Prevention – Inhibition of S.
mutans along with regular cleaning of teeth
Background on Cavities
• Natural cycle of tooth remineralization/demineralization– Saliva is a buffer and, among many other
compunds, contains fluoride and calcium, which promote remineralization
– Oral bacteria use food carbohydrates to produce polysaccharides, building blocks of plaque– Biofilm formation leads to anaerobic fermentation, acid build-up
– Switches cycle toward demineralization (pH < 5.5)
Mouth Chemistry
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
Novel Active Ingredient Red Wine Pomace Phenolic Extract Grape pomace – waste byproduct of
winemaking, mostly skins and seeds Rich in polyphenols, currently under
research for various health benefits Polyphenols extracted through solvent-solid
leaching, purification, and evaporation Abundance of raw material:
3.239 million tons in California grapes No adverse effects from high dietary intakeCatechin
Extract activity against S. mutans Inhibits virulence factors of S. mutans
Prevents synthesis of extracellular polysaccharides Lowers activity of glucosyltransferases (GTFs),
enzymes which transfer glucose into glucans Lowers bacteria’s ability to produce and
tolerate acids Lowers activity of F-ATPase, which protects S.
mutans against environmental acid stress Shows no antibacterial activity
Would be a precise and selective preventative strategy for dental caries
No risk of disrupting the other oral flora and, even more important, of consumer allergic reactions and bacterial resistance
In Vitro Studies with Extract % GTF B activity shows the activity of the
enzyme to produce glucans in comparison to the control
Cultures of S. mutans exposed to varying concentrations of polyphenolic extract
125 62.5 31.2 15.60
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Amount of Pinot Noir Fruit Pomace Extract v. GTF B activity
Concentration of Extract (micrograms/mL)
% G
TF B
act
ivity
• Thimothe et al., J. Agr. Food Chem. 2007, 55, 10200-10207.
In Vivo Studies with Extract Study on Sprague-Dawley rats using
different polyphenol: apigenin Quantified both GTF B % activity as well
as dental caries
Dental Caries
Control Apigenin % less caries
8.1 4.6 43 %
• Koo H et al. Oral Microbiol Immunol 2002: 17: 337-343.
In Vivo Studies with Extract
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 0.00352168407723961 x² − 1.35216840772396 x + 100R² = 1
GTF B activity v. caries
% activity of GTF B
% le
ss c
arie
s th
an c
ontro
l
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Effectiveness of Pinot Noir FP Polyphenols
Amount PN FP (micrograms/mL)
% le
ss d
enta
l car
ies
CCm
mmC FP
FP
FP
%03.92%*67.10)
67.10(03.92%
%C – percent less dental cariesmFP – mass of Pinot Noir fruit pomace
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
Objective To use red wine pomace extract
to create a toothpaste to prevent cavities by preventing S. mutans virulence Through Consumer Modeling
Consumer Modeling for Product Design Use consumer survey to find a product
formulation with the highest consumer preference
Maximize preference by maximizing preference of each property weight
yi – preference for property i wi - property weight of i S - preference
ii ywS
Consumer Modeling: Survey Ranked importance of key characteristics on 1-
100 scale Effectiveness Sweetness Thickness Foaminess Cooling Effect Creaminess Abrasiveness
Chose preferred variation of each key characteristic
Degree of Sweetness (i.e. like candy, chewing gum, little sweet)
Identified the importance of effectiveness based upon number of cavities that could be prevented
Consumer Modeling: Survey
13%
8%
18%
13%7%
7%
33%
Importance Rankings
Sweetness
Thickness
Cooling Effect
Abrasiveness
Foaminess
Creaminess
Effectiveness
Consumer & Business Modeling Designing the product
Connect consumer preference to consumer related property (effectiveness, toxicity, etc).
Correlate the consumer related property with known engineering/scientific properties (viscosity, PH, etc)
Correlate engineering/scientific properties with proportion of ingredients.
Maximize consumer preference by varying the composition.
Optimize the economics by targeting different consumer satisfaction levels.
Effectiveness: Active Ingredient Average American has 1 cavity every 4
years Or 11.6 cavities, total
Have surveyors rank “happiness” for: A. Never having another cavity B. Having a cavity (on average) once every
20 years C. Having a cavity (on average) once every
10 years D. Having a cavity (on average) once every
6 years
Average A B C DCavities/year 0.25 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.167% less cavities --- 100 80 60 33.3
Effectiveness of Active Ingredient
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Effectiveness of Pinot Noir FP Polyphenols
Amount PN FP (micrograms/mL)
% le
ss d
enta
l car
ies
Cavities/year
% less cavities
m PNFP (microgram
s/mL)
Average 0.25 ---
A 0 90 472
B 0.05 80 71
C 0.1 60 20
D 0.167 33.3 6.0
Effectiveness
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%f(x) = 3.12303192522078E-06 x³ − 0.000366566247577958 x² + 0.0185449142921249 x − 0.00278824318372271R² = 0.990121377272634
Effectiveness: Consumer Preference
% less cavities
Cons
umer
Pre
fere
nce
Sweetness Related Ingredients: Sorbitol, Sodium
Saccharine, Xylitol Sweetness α Equivalent Sucrose
Ingredient Equivalent Sweetness (ingredient/sucrose)
Sodium Saccharine 350Xylitol 1Sorbitol 0.6
SweetnessConsumer Option Equivalent
ProductEquivalent wt %
Sucrose1: Low Sweetness Mint 10
2: Medium Sweetness Gum 55
3: High Sweetness Candy 100
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Sweetness: Consumer Preference
equivalent wt % sucrose
Con
sum
er P
refe
renc
e
Cooling Effect The cooling effect in the mouth during is due
to menthol in mint oils used as flavoring as well as lower temperature due to negative heat of solution.
Cooling effect caused by both menthol and cold is mediated by Ca+ ion channels
The greater the Ca+ current, the greater the sensation
Cooling Effect
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600 Menthol Concentration v. Ca+ Current
Concentration of Menthol (micromolar)
Curr
ent
of C
a+ io
ns (
nA)
David D. McKemy et al., NATURE, Volume 416, March 2002
Cooling Effect
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200
200400600800
10001200
Effect of cold temperature difference on Ca2+ ion
current
Temperature Decrease (deg C)
Curr
ent
(nA)
0 5 10 15 20 250
100
200
300
400
500
600
Menthol Concentration v. Equivalent Temperature
Decrease
Equivalent Temperature Decrease (deg. C)Men
thol
Con
cent
ratio
n (m
icro
mo-
lar)
David D. McKemy et al., NATURE, Volume 416, March 2002
Cooling Effect
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Cooling Effect: Consumer Preference
Simulated Cooling Effect (deg C)
Con
sum
er P
refe
renc
e
Consumer Option
Equivalent Product
Simulated Cooling Effect
(deg C)1: Little Cooling Winterfresh® Gum 3.762
2: Medium Cooling Extra® Polar Ice Gum 7.767
3: Very Cooling Altoids® Mint 11.772
Thickness Consumer assessment of thickness is the consumer
assessment of “viscous” (assessments of “viscous”) α to force applied A is constant and
But
Then assessments of “viscous” α
Thickness α F α (Viscosity)1/2
dydvAF
dv vdy h
2/12/1
v
F = force upon substanceµ = viscosity of substanceν = velocity of substanceh = layer height
1/ 2h
Thickness Dispersion: solids (abrasives) in liquid
continuous phase (mainly water) Empirical formula from E. Barnea and J.
Mizrahi:
Works best for fluids with low Reynolds numbers (our case)
solidsfractionvolumephaseliquidinioffractionc
iliquidofosityvisc
cosityviscfluid
osityviscmixture
i
i
iif
m
fm
135exp*
ThicknessQuality Equivalent
FoodViscosity “Thickness”
Little Thickness Honey 3,000 cp 54.8Moderately Thick
Tomato Paste 150,000 cp 387.3
Very thick Peanut Butter 250,000 cp 500
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0% Thickness: Consumer Preference
"Thickness"
Cons
umer
Pre
fere
nce
Abrasion Abrasion α Relative Dentin Abrasion
(RDA) Used in dental care to quantify abrasion of toothpaste Set relative to a standard abrasive, usually calcium
carbonate Usual toothpaste values should be between 60 and 150
0 5 10 15 20 25 300
20
40
60
80
100
120Abrasion with Concentration of Silica
weight % silica in toothpaste
RDA
Abrasive RDAmultiplier compared to silica
Silica 53 1
Dicalcium Phosphate 81 0.65
Calcium Carbonate 100 0.53
AbrasionConsumer Option Equivalent Dentifrice RDA value
1: Little Abrasion Rembradt® Classic Sensitive (least gritty) 70
2: Medium Abrasion Aquafresh® Extra Fresh 100
3: Very Abrasive Crest® Pro-Health (gritty feeling) 125
60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.000.000%
10.000%20.000%30.000%40.000%50.000%60.000%70.000%80.000%90.000%
100.000%
Abrasion: Consumer Preference
RDA
Cons
umer
Pre
fere
nce
Foaminess
Consumer Option Foam Height (mm)Concentration SLS
(M)Weight % SLS
Solution
1: Little Foaminess 93.1 0.007 0.50
2: Medium Foaminess 93.9 0.011 0.78
3: Very Foamy 94.8 0.027 2.00
Foaminess Difficult to predict, based on many
factors Mainly amount surfactant
92.5 93 93.5 94 94.5 950.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Foaminess: Consumer Preference
Idealized Foam Height for Experiment (mm)
Con
sum
er P
refe
renc
e
Creaminess Creaminess in toothpaste is related to
the smoothness (abrasion) and the thickness
Determined by surveying consumers and having them arbitrarily assign a value for “thickness”, “smoothness”, and “creaminess” to a standard and the experimental semisolids and liquids
COF = coefficient of friction µ = viscosity of mixture
84.054.0 smoothnessthicknessnesscreami
COF
smoothness 1 2/1}{ thickness
Kokini, JL, and E L Cussler, Journal of Food Science, 48 (1983), 1221-1225.
Creaminess
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%0.250.260.270.280.290.3
0.310.320.330.340.35
Coefficient of Friction for Toothpaste
Trend-lineData
Percentage Solids in Toothpaste
Coeffi
cien
t of
Fric
tion
(dim
ensi
onle
ss)
28.0*0.08676 0.239 COFCOF = coefficient of friction of toothpasteΦ = percentage solids in toothpaste Lewis, R and R S Dwyer-Joyce.
Proc. IMechE Vol. 220 Part J: J. Engineering Tribology. 2006
CreaminessConsumer Option Equivalent Food Creaminess Value
1: Little Creaminess Birdseye Cool Whip® 1.66
2: Medium Creaminess Ice Cream 1.83
3: Very Creamy Cream Cheese 2.15
1.25 1.45 1.65 1.85 2.05 2.25 2.450.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Consumer Preference: Creaminess
Subjective Creaminess
Cons
umer
Pre
fere
nce
Optimal Product
Ingredient Purpose Weight Percent Weight (g) Cost
Deionized Water Dilution Purposes 51.9050 114.19 $0.114Glycerin Humectant 6.4303 14.15 $0.124
Hydrated Silica Thickener 1.1751 2.59 $0.120Peppermint Oil Flavor 0.5737 1.26 $0.088
Silica Abrasive 23.8037 52.37 $0.094Sodium Benzoate Preservative 0.0200 0.04 $0.001
Sodium Lauryl Sulfate (30%)
Emulsifier/ Whipping Aid/ Surfactant 0.8944 1.97 $0.005
Sodium Saccharin (10%) Sweetening 1.4030 3.09 $0.150
Sorbitol (70%) Sweetening / Humectant 11.6561 25.64 $0.550Titanium Dioxide Opacity 0.0500 0.11 $0.001
Trisodium Phosphate pH adjuster 0.0500 0.11 $0.000Polyphenolic extract prevent cavities 0.0386 0.08 $0.890
Xylitol Sweetening/Saliva inducing 1.0000 2.20 $0.025Other Flavor Flavor 1.0000 2.20 $0.154
Total Raw Materials Cost
$2.317
Consumer Satisfaction
Property Corresponding Characteristic
Consumer Satisfaction Weight Total
Sweetness % sucrose 55.0 % 1.000 0.134 0.134
Thickness (viscosity)^0.5 287.5 (cp^0.5) 0.878 0.081 0.071
Cooling Effect deg C 11.8 degrees C 1.000 0.178 0.178
Abrasion RDA 110.4 0.966 0.126 0.122
Foaminess Foam Height 94.1 mm 1.000 0.075 0.075
Creaminess Consumer value 2.42 1.000 0.074 0.074
Effectiveness % less cavities 90.1 % 0.977 0.333 0.325
97.81%
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
ADA Seal of Approval The ADA Seal of Acceptance is a registered
certification mark. Products Considered for Approval Evaluation
Submitted upon request of manufacturer or distributor.
ADA Criteria Safety Composition, Nature, and Function Labeling (Name) Package Inserts (preferably biodegradable and
recyclable) Advertising Standards
Toothpaste Manufacturing ProcessThe following steps are the mixing procedure according to the Personal Care
formulation section of the Rheology Modifiers Handbook (Braun and Rosen 2000):1. Slowly add the deionized water and the sorbitol aqueous solution (70%) until
uniform. 2. Mix this solution with the xanthan gum. Mix until the gum is completely
dissolved in the solution.3. Add the calcium carbonate and hydrated silica to the solution until it is uniform. 4. Add the flavoring, xylitol to the mixture until it is uniform and follow by the
addition of the active ingredient, polyphenolic extract. Mix until it is uniform. 5. Add the sweetener, sodium saccharin (10%) aqueous solution until it is uniform
in the mixture.6. Add the preservative, sodium benzoate and the pH adjuster, trisodium
phosphate until it is uniform.7. Add the titanium dioxide until it is uniform in the mixture and then add sodium
lauryl sulfate (30%) aqueous solution to the mixture until it is completely incorporated into the toothpaste mixture.
Contra Rotating Mixer Contra Rotating Mixer
Ideal for viscous product Stainless Steel material Two Different Shafts
Solid shaft paddle blades rotate clockwise
Hollow shaft with anchor scrapper blades rotate counter-clockwise
Homogenous mixing achieved from contra rotary motion of two different blades and high speed homogenizer
Jacked mixer for heating during mixing
Mixing products under vacuum
In built homogenizer allows for emulsification
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
Economics: Investment Extraction Process – $10.1 Million
Equipment Piping, Installation, etc. Indirect Costs
Toothpaste Manufacturing – No investment cost Utilize an existing process line at the
existing toothpaste production facility.
Total Capital InvestmentComponent Basis for Estimate CostDirect Costs
Total Equipment Cost (TEC) $3,257,180
Installation 47 % (TEC) $1,530,874
Instrumentation and Controls 8 % (TEC) $260,574
Piping Stainless Steel Network $185,146
Electrical 11 % (TEC) $358,290
Buildings 7 % (TEC) $228,003
Total Direct Cost $5,820,066
Indirect Costs
Construction 41 % (TEC) $1,335,444
Legal expenses 4 % (TEC) $130,287
Contractor's fee 10 % (TEC) $325,718
Contingency $1,000,000
Total Indirect Cost $2,791,449
Fixed Capital Investment direct cost + indirect cost $8,611,515
Working Capital 15% TCI $1,519,679
Total Capital Investment (TCI) $10,131,194
P-1 / HG-101Homogenization
P-2Truck (Bulk)
P-3 / FDR-101Freeze Drying
P-4 / MX-101Mixing
P-6 / EV-101Evaporation
P-7 / C-101PBA Chromatography
P-8 / EV-102Evaporation
S-101
S-102
S-103
S-106
S-107
P-11 / DC-101Centrifugation
S-104
S-105
S-110
S-111
S-114
S-115
S-116S-117
S-118
S-119
S-121
S-122
S-108
Extraction Process Modeled after extraction used in
research paper Could be optimized for bulk extraction
Delivery Truck
Freeze Dryer
PBA Chromatography Column
Evaporators
Homogenizer
Decanter Centrifuge
Extraction Equipment Cost
Equipment Name Cost Water deionizer Skid Mounted $55,804Homogenizer $19,000Freeze Dryer $2,361,000Mixer $105,000Evaporator (2) $186,000Centrifuge $236,000PBA Chromatography Column $293,000
Pumps (2) $1,376TOTALS $3,257,180
Extraction Piping NetworkStream Name Length (ft) ID (ft) Q, ft^3/hr Total Cost
S-101 14.46 2.50 28.40 $ 12,035.53 S-102 0.09 0.25 0.017 $ 11,352.30 S-103 0.94 0.33 0.246 $ 11,378.69 S-104 0.94 0.33 0.245 $ 11,378.67 S-105 0.95 0.33 0.249 $ 11,378.72 S-106 0.77 0.33 0.202 $ 11,378.12 S-107 3.08 0.75 1.814 $ 11,503.44 S-108 0.123 0.17 0.016 $ 11,328.91 S-110 0.876 0.33 0.229 $ 11,378.46 S-111 14.46 2.50 28.40 $ 754.05
S-114 3.11 0.75 1.83 $ 11,503.54 S-115 0.24 0.25 0.048 $ 11,352.83 S-116 3.05 0.75 1.80 $ 11,503.35 S-117 4.58 1.00 3.60 $ 11,579.02 S-118 4.58 1.00 3.60 $ 11,579.02 S-119 14.39 2.50 28.25 $ 12,035.27 S-121 6.26 1.50 7.38 $ 11,725.74
Piping Network Summary Network Cost --$185,000 Pipe Composition– Stainless Steel Number of Streams –17 streams Piping Length –72.92 feet Maximum Flow rate – 28.4 ft3/hr (3.54
gpm)
Economics: Total Annual Product Cost
Total Annual Product Cost Rate Cost per unit Cost per YearRaw Materials
Active & Inactive Ingredients 7.44.E+06 kg/ yr $ 10.55 USD / kg $78,449,110
Packaging 147% of Tubes/yr $65,733,784
Operating Labor 3 operators at $27/hr $603,126
Operating Supervision 15% of Operating Labor $90,469
Utilities Electricity, Water, Steam $128,674
Maintenance & Repairs 10% Equipment Cost $325,718
Operating Supplies 15% Maintenance & Repairs $48,858
Laboratory Charges 10% of Operating Labor $60,313
Depreciation Straight Line Depreciation (10 yrs) $1,013,119
Taxes 2% FCI $172,230
Insurance 1% FCI $86,115
Total Annual Product Cost $146,711,516
Total Annual Product Cost per tube $4.34
Total Annual Product Cost per kilogram $19.72
Cost of Raw MaterialsIngredient Characteristic/ Function $/kg $/m3Calcium Carbonate2 Abrasive 98.20$ Calcium Phosphate2 Abrasive 62.20$ FD&C blue #1 (7) coloring 114.08$ Glycerin (99%)6 Humectant 6,285.71$ Glycerin** Humectant 8.79$ Hydrated Silica4 Abrasive 46.53$ Menthol, crystals5 cooling/ flavor 113.19$ Peppermint Oil2 Flavor 70.00$ Sodium Bicarbonate Abrasive 1.87$ Sodium flouride5 remineralization 26.26$ Sodium Hexametaphosphate3 Abrasive 3.63$
Sodium Lauryl Sulfate (30%)3Emulsifier/ Whipping Aid/ Surfactant 2,380.95$
Sodium Lauryl Sulfate Powder5
Emulsifier/ Whipping Aid/ Surfactant 42.81$
Sorbitol1 Sweetening / Humectant 7.90$ Titanium Dioxide1 Opacity 9.80$ Trisodium Phosphate3 pH adjuster; chelating agent 3.02$ Water, Deionized (from municipal) Dilution Purposes 0.40$
Xanthan gum1Thickener/ Flow Modifier (Resistor) 31.80$
Utility Usage
UtilitiesParameter amount $/unit Cost, USD
Electricity (kWh) 2,587,990 $0.05 $116,460
Steam, saturated (kg) 65,195,710 $0.0044 $11,387
Water Cooling (kg) 1,239,335 $0.000396 $491
Water Process (.114 kg/ tube) 849,483 $0.000396 $337
Total $128,674
Toothpaste Market 93% of consumers use toothpaste (Simmons Market
Research)
Retail toothpaste sales (2000) $1,846 million and growing approximately 3.5%. (Packaged Facts2000)
Estimated retail toothpaste sales for 2008 --$2,430 million.
Toothpaste Sales 29% whitening 22% regular 15.5% baking soda and peroxide formulas 13.5% multi-benefit 13% tartar control 7% specialty
Target Market Population
South/Southwest Total Population 92 million
Demand Assumption 60% of population buys toothpaste 13.5% use multi-benefit toothpaste 7.45 million affected people Entire target market buys 6
tubes/year
Economics Summary
Annual Raw Material Cost $78 millionAnnual Product Cost $147 millionAnnual Product Cost per tube
$4.34
Annual Production Rate 33.8 million tubes/ yr
Product Selling Price per tube
$8.00
Annual Income $270 millionGross Profit $124 millionIncome Taxes (34%) $42 millionNet Profit $82 millionTotal Capital Investment $10 millionReturn on Investment 800%
Competitor Pricing
Brand price $/oz SatisfactionClay Bright natural toothpaste $6.99 $2.18 92.1%Dr. Collins Restore Remineralizing $7.49 $1.87 88.6%Crest Whitening Exp. Anti-cavity $2.99 $0.50 84.2%Elgydium Anti-cavity $6.95 $1.99 84.1%Kiss My Face Anti-cavity Toothpaste $5.99 $1.76 82.0%AVERAGE $6.86 $1.95 86.2%OUR PRODUCT $8.00 $1.39 97.8%
Consumer Utility Maximization Ф(d1) = p1d1 – (α/β)ρ [(Y-p1d1)/p2]1- ρ d1 ρ =0
Y= $357 million/ yr (total sales / yr) ρ =0.75 p2= $7 α –consumer awareness =1 β –consumer preference of product 2 over product 1 p1; d1– new product price; demand
Utilized Excel Solver to find demand for β range Net Present Worth determined from Cash Flow and Total
Capital Investment. Interest rate = 10%
Beta Values
Beta Curves
$-$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65
$5 $7 $9 $11 $13 $15 $17 $19 $21Price
NPW
mill
ions
0.6 0.65
0.7 0.71
0.72 0.73
0.74 0.75
0.76 0.77
0.78 0.79
0.8 0.85
Pricing Model New product demand value
Decreases with increasing product price Decreases as Beta increases
The larger the Beta the worse new product compares
Equals existing demand when Prices are equal α/β = 1
New product demand value has direct relationship with sales.
Anti-Cavity ToothpasteWhat’s the problem? •Background on Cavities
What’s the solution? •Novel Active Ingredient Overview
How do we achieve? •Consumer Modeling
How do we proceed?
•ADA Approval, Final Product Composition & Manufacturing Process
Why should we proceed?
•Economics •Competition•Risk Analysis
Conclusions Tooth cavities are caused by S. mutans and are a
serious public health issue. Polyphenolic grape pomace extract will inhibit the
virulence factors of S. mutans and consequently decrease the risk of tooth cavities when placed in a toothpaste with 98% consumer preference.
Only the extraction process requires an investment, which totals $10 million and will yield an estimated return on investment of 800% when product is sold at $8/tube.
The product with the highest consumer preference is also the most profitable.
Thank you!
References U.S. National Library of Medicine. (2007). MedlinePlus Medical Encyclopedia: Dental cavities. [Online]
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