anthony downs ch. 8 the statics and dynamics of party ideology
TRANSCRIPT
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Anthony Downs Ch. 8
The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology
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Learning Objectives
• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
• Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.
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Party Movement
• When do parties change ideologies
• When do the diverge?
• When do they resemble each other
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Where To Build a Bar in Central Texas?
Here… in Bastrop
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Or Here?
6th Street
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Why Do you See These two across the Street From Each Other?
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Why Does This, Appear next to This?
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Why Do We Have?
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THESE STRATEGIES APPLY TO POLITICS
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Lets Apply this to Ideology
• Here is a distribution with 0 representing policy liberalism, and 100 representing policy conservativism
• A and B represent political parties
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Where Parties Should Go in A Normal Distribution
They Move To the Center
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Why go to the Center
• You Cant leapfrog the other party
• More voters
• At what point do you stop moving to the Center?
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When do you stop?
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The Problem of Being Too Moderate
• A Third Party could grab your flank
• Too many of your people stay home
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STAYING PUT
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What About A Bimodal Distribution?
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Party Polarization
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The Tea Party
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One Hump is often Bigger 2010
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In 2008 it was the other way
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MULTI PARTY SYSTEMS
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Polygamy
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A polymodal System
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A Polymodal System
• In PR systems, 1 party for Each hump
• How might this differ in a Single Member District System?
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In Germany
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Party Movement in Multiparty Systems
• Stay Put!• Distinguish yourself from your enemies
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How our Parties Deal with the Humps
• Social and Economic Conservatives (within the GOP)
• The Many Humps within the Democratic Party
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HOW MANY PARTIESNew and Old
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How Many Parties in Majority Elections
• Duverger’s Law
– Mechanical Effect
– Psychological Effect
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How Many in a Two Round System
• If No candidate gets 50%+1, we have a runoff
• This system encourages multiple candidates/parties as well as coalitions
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What about in Texas?
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The Kinds of Candidates
• Those who are there to win– Perry– KBH
• Those that are there to influence– Medina– The rest
• This system encourages populist and extremist candidates
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Voting in the First Round
• Try to get your preferred candidate into second place or Get them 50%
• Do not worry about switching candidates
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The Second Round
• Round 1 winners must compromise to get the supporters of the losing candidates in round two
• This favors candidates who are situated at the political middle
• This hurts intransigent candidates
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Rational Voting in this system
• Round 1 with your heart
• Round 2 with your head
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How many parties in a PR system
• As many parties as humps exist
• Depends on the threshold
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NEW PARTIES
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Getting New Parties
• Existing parties cant jump over each other
• New Parties come from– Between the gap– On the fringe
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What New parties Want to Do
Win elections Threaten Existing Parties
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How can Third Parties Win?
A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!
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Splitting the Vote
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Ambiguity
• You can try to accomplish everything• It increases your appeal• It makes it harder for the voter to be rational!
Why?