anne richards - prudential plc/media/files/p/... · 2016 - 2020. estimated share of cumulative net...
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M&GAnne Richards
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M&G’s key capabilities
Rising to cyclical challenges
Adapting to structural change
The future
Agenda
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M&G’s key investment capabilitiesM&G Group assets under management by asset class (%), 30 September 2016
Note: Asset class breakdown excludes assets from Prudential Investment Managers South Africa business. Cash not shown. Data as at 30 September 2016Source: M&G management information
Equities
Real Estate
Multi-asset
Alternatives
One of Europe’s leading bond managers with one of the largest credit analyst teams in UK / Europe
Unconstrained, conviction investing
Managing assets in the UK, continental Europe, Asia and North America
Top-down ‘macro’ approach, with a strong valuation framework
Full range of investment disciplines including real estate finance, direct lending and infrastructure equity investment
Fixed Income
Corporate bonds
Government bonds Asset backed securities
High yield Leveraged finance
Other private debt
19.1%
43.5%
6.4%0.7%
1.0%2.4%
10.0%
8.0%
2.5% 6.4%
Total AUM: £266bn
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M&G’s investment expertise: supporting the needs of a diverse range of clients
21.3%
12.8%
43.5%
7.3%
12.3%
2.7%
30.8%
49.4%
1.5% 2.9%
5.0%
9.7%
0.6%
5.3%
40.7%
9.0%3.8%
8.5%
11.3%
2.9%
0.8%
17.7%
Internal AUM: £130bn Retail AUM: £62bn Institutional AUM: £74bn
M&G Group assets under management by client type and asset class (%), 30 September 2016
Corporate bonds
Government bonds Asset backed securities
High yield Leveraged finance
Other private debt
Alternatives
Equities
Real estate
Multi-asset
Note: Asset class splits exclude assets from Prudential Investment Managers South Africa business. Data as at 30 September 2016Source: M&G management information
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M&G’s key capabilities
Rising to cyclical challenges
Adapting to structural change
The future
Agenda
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The OEIC range is the major part of retail assets
21.3%
12.8%
43.5%
7.3%
12.3%
2.7%
30.8%
49.4%
1.5% 2.9%
5.0%
9.7%
0.6%
5.3%
40.7%
9.0%3.8%
8.5%
11.3%
2.9%
0.8%
17.7%
Internal AUM: £130bn Retail AUM: £62bn Institutional AUM: £74bn
Corporate bonds
Government bonds Asset backed securities
High yield Leveraged finance
Other private debt
Alternatives
Equities
Real estate
Multi-asset
M&G Group assets under management by client type and asset class (%), 30 September 2016
Note: Asset class splits exclude assets from Prudential Investment Managers South Africa business. Data as at 30 September 2016Source: M&G management information
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A year ago only 36% of our open ended retail funds had above median performance over one year…
42%31% 27%
16%
22%
26% 32%
26%
24%32% 25%
28%
12% 11% 16%
30%
1 year - Sep 2015 3 year - Sep 2015 5 years - Sep 2015 Since fund managertenure - Sep 2015
M&G retail investment performance weighted by number of funds (%), 30 September 2015
Top quartile
Upper quartile
Lower quartile
Bottom quartile
50%
Note: Quartile ranking based on ranking of the funds within their respective IA or Morningstar sectorsSource: M&G management information; Morningstar, Inc. combined UK and Pan-European peer groups as at September 2015. Figures in GBP, bid to bid, net income reinvested.
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…that has improved to 53% at the end of September 2016
42%
27% 31% 35%27% 26%
16% 19%
22%
20%
26%31%
32% 38%
26% 18%
24%
22%
32%21%
25% 20%
28%
24%
12%
31%
11% 13% 16% 16%
30%39%
1 year - Sep 2015 1 year - Sep 2016 3 year - Sep 2015 3 year - Sep 2016 5 years - Sep 2015 5 years - Sep 2016 Since fund managertenure - Sep 2015
Since fund managertenure - Sep 2016
Retail investment performance weighted by number of funds (%), 30 September 2015 and 30 September 2016
Top quartile
Upper quartile
Lower quartile
Bottom quartile
Shorter-term UK OEIC fund investment performance is improvingNote: Quartile ranking based on ranking of the funds within their respective IA or Morningstar sectorsSource: M&G management information; Morningstar, Inc. combined UK and Pan-European peer groups as at October 2016. Figures in GBP, bid to bid, net income reinvested.
50%
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Pace of outflows from retail funds is slowing as investment performance improves
346
573
(361)
(1,136)(938)
(1,902)
(1,168)
(1,566)
(1,205)(1,076)
(1,209) (1,216)
(1,692)(1,531)
(885)
(605)
(260)
(1,149)
(429)(245)
(399)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
M&G Group retail net sales (£m), January 2015 – September 2015
Brexit effect
Fund outflows are stabilising
2016
Note: Data as at 30 September 2016Source: M&G management information
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M&G Optimal Income Fund has led the recoveryin performance
Sector1 year 3 years 5 years Fund manager
tenure*Return %
p.a. Quartile Return % p.a. Quartile Return %
p.a. Quartile Return % p.a. Quartile
M&G Optimal Income Euro A-H (1.62) 4 3.36 2 5.8 1 7.12 1Morningstar EUR Cautious Allocation global sector average (0.04) 2.88 3.19 2.66
M&G Optimal Income Euro A-H 5.68 1 3.45 2 6.39 1 7.08 1Morningstar EUR Cautious Allocation global sector average 3.4 2.81 3.78 2.61
M&G Optimal Income Fund investment performance, 31 December 2015
The Fund has been positioned short duration, long investment grade and shorthigh yield credit The Fund has an excellent long-term performance track record with returns
exceeding 7% p.a. since inception
and 30 September 2016
*Fund manager tenure is 20 April 2007 for M&G Optimal Income Euro A-H share class. Note: Data as at 31 December 2015 and 30 September 2016. Source: M&G management information; Morningstar inc
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Market environment has been testing for M&G’sequities style for some time
An unusually long period of underperformance by Value
Global value vs. quality stocks vs. 10 year US bond yields (%), 2002 – October 2016
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US 10y yields (LHS) MSCI World Index - value vs quality (RHS)
Note: Data as at 11 October 2016Source: Barclays Research, MSCI, Datastream
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M&G’s institutional client baseStrong performance across a range of metrics
A number of funds outperform against benchmark(%), five years to September 2016
100% 100%
Real Estate Fixed Income
M&G institutional pipeline (%), 30 September 2016
32%
9%
13%
46%
Real estate
Infrastructure
Real estate mortgages /debt
Other debt / privatefinance lending
~£4bn investment pipeline across a diverse range of strategies
£14bn
£74bn
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q3 2016
M&G institutional AUM (£bn), 2003 – Q3 2016
+14% CAGR
M&G institutional client base by geography (%), 30 September 2016
84%
4% 10%
1% 1%UK
US
Europe
Asia
RoW
Includes £3.5bn from third-party European insurance companies
Note: Data as at 30 September 2016. From 2012 onwards, Prudential Investment Managers South Africa assets under management are recorded on a proportional basis reflecting M&G’s revised shareholding. Source: M&G management information
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M&G’s key capabilities
Rising to cyclical challenges
Adapting to structural change
The future
Agenda
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Changing demand leads to strong growth prospects for alternatives, solutions and passives
Alternatives
Active specialties
Solutions
Active core
Passives3.7% 4.0%8% 10%11.0% 10.8%
58% 49% 39% 39%
6%8%
12% 13%
20%21% 23% 22%
7% 11% 11% 12%
2003 2008 2014 2015
Global AUM split by product (%), 2003 – 2015
$34T $43T $71T $71T
ETFs ETFs
Passives ex. ETFs Passives ex. ETFs42%
(24)%
51%
7%
23%
2016 - 2020
Estimated share of cumulative net flows
2016 – 2020
100%
Source: BCG Global Asset Management Market Sizing Database 2016; BCG Global Asset Management Benchmarking Database 2016; BCG analysis
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Global asset management industry faces margin pressure with an increased focus on costs
33.6
27.926.8
29.0 29.1 28.8 28.928.1 27.7
20.3
18.0 18.6 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.2 17.5 17.3
40
36
31
35 3536
3738
37
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net revenues and costs / AUM (bps) and operating margins / net revenues (%), 2007 – 2015
(2.0)%
(2.4)%
CAGR
Bps %Net revenues (bps) Costs (bps) Operating margins (%)
Note: “Net revenues” represent management fees net of distribution costsSource: BCG Global Asset Management Benchmarking Database 2016
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More complex distribution landscape
Expert institutions with embedded investors
vResearchPortfolio management
Mutual fundsSegregated mandatesPensions fundsSovereign wealth fundsManaged accounts etc.
Multi-asset solutions Platform wrap
Savings and investments market
End customers
Intermediated / institutional customers
Institutions incl DB pension investors and
wealth managers
Direct brokers Online financial marketplacesWealth managers
IFAs
HNW investor wealth
services
Mass market low-cost self investor
Mass market advised investor
Mass affluent advised investor / DC pension
investors
Mass market self-directed investor
Robo-advice investment models
Online self service Robo holistic finance
Reporting automationEnhanced content
Online access to research Platform robo advice
Source: M&G management information
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Wave of regulatory development
Shadow banking - ETFs
UCITS V
FAMR
ICSD
Shadow banking –money market funds
PRIIPs
Shareholder rights
UCITS VI
AML (4th directive)
Benchmarks
Corporate governance
CSDR
Data protection
EMIR
Dodd-Frank
MiFID 2 / MiFIR
Sanctions
SLL
Shadow banking –securities financing
Asset management market study
CCP R&R
IORP II
Senior Managers Regime
Shadow banking –securitisation
FTT
Shadow banking –liquidity / leverage
GATCA
VAT review
Source: M&G management information
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Developing new capabilities led by investor needs
Private debt Absolute return solutions Distressed debt Commercial real
estate debtLong lease real
estate
Infrastructure equity
Infrastructure debt Direct lending Private equity
Source: M&G management information
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Strategy launched in October 2012
Current AUM of £1,950m
Consists of two co-mingled funds and three single investor funds
Targets:– UK RPI +2.5% p.a. on a five year rolling average
– Duration of 15 – 20 years
Invests in a range of assets with contractual links to UK inflation
Returns generated by credit risk and illiquidity premia
Risk mitigated by seniority, security and bespoke covenants
Clients predominantly UK pension funds seeking to match liabilities
M&G Inflation Opportunities Funds: overviewAlternative investments case study
Proven track record with all funds ahead of target returnsSource: M&G management information
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M&G Inflation Opportunities Funds: portfolio overviewAlternative investments case study
M&G Inflation Opportunities Fund portfolio breakdown (%), 31 October 2016
Cash0.5%
Index-linked gilts
23.7%
Ground rents11.8%
Income strips15.8%
Infrastructure ex. solar power
1.5%
Local authorities
2.9%
Long lease property
28.2%
Private rental sector0.1%
Public corporates
2.6%
Private corporates
3.3% Social housing
5.9%
Solar power3.8%
Student accommodation for the Royal College of Music
Lightsource solar
Drax power station
Sainsbury’s superstore -Dulwich
Islington and Shoreditch housing association
Note: Data as at 31 October 2016Source: M&G management information
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3.8%
12.4%
15.9%16.4%
12.8%11.7%
10.9%
1.4%
2.8%
4.0%4.8%
4.0% 4.3% 4.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
3 months 6 months YTD 1 year 2 years 3 years Since inception
M&G Inflation Opportunities Fund performance (%), 31 October 2016
M&G Inflation Opportunities Fund Estimated RPI +2.5%
M&G Inflation Opportunities Funds: performance updateAlternative investments case study
Note: Data as at 31 October 2016. Inception date is 1 October 2012. Fund returns are quoted net of fees and benchmark returns are gross of feesSource: M&G management information
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M&G Inflation Opportunities Funds: NAV growthAlternative investments case study
£1.9bn
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb-
13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep-
13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug
-15
Sep-
15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec
-15
Jan-
16
Feb-
16
Mar
-16
Apr
-16
May
-16
Jun-
16
Jul-1
6
Aug
-16
M&G Inflation Opportunities strategy NAV growth (£bn), December 2012 – August 2016
+95% CAGR
Note: Data as at 30 September 2016Source: M&G management information
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Development, integration and implementation of a new business operating model Creation of a Luxembourg ‘super’
management company structure Establishment of a European ex. UK
MiFID firm
Aladdin system implementation Website rebuild project to improve the
functionality and user experience of M&G’s websites Investment in marketing automation
software enabling data-driven marketing plans and customer analytics
Simplification and scalability are key to meeting industry-wide margin pressure
Data and digital Fund structures
Source: M&G management information
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More emphasis on sub-advisory opportunities
Joint-product development opportunities
Digital distribution
Strategic partnerships
Brexit
Adapting distribution to meet increasingly complex customer channels
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The regulatory tide shows no sign of turning
Shadow banking - ETFs
UCITS V
FAMR
ICSD
Shadow banking –money market funds
PRIIPs
Shareholder rights
UCITS VI
AML (4th directive)
Benchmarks
Corporate governance
CSDR
Data protection
EMIR
Dodd-Frank
MiFID 2 / MiFIR
Sanctions
SLL
Shadow banking –securities financing
Asset management market study
CCP R&R
IORP II
Senior Managers Regime
Shadow banking –securitisation
FTT
Shadow banking –liquidity / leverage
GATCA
VAT review
Engage constructively with regulators and policymakers
Regulatory trend is towards increased complexity and greater administrative burden
Moves towards harmonisation and increased transparency canbe helpful
Source: M&G management information
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M&G’s key capabilities
Rising to cyclical challenges
Adapting to structural change
The future
Agenda
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Asset management is a growth industry
37.3
59.463.9
71.4
101.7
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
2004 2007 2012 2015 2020 estimate
Global AUM (USD trillion), 2004 – 2020
+42%
Source: PwC analysis 2014; BCG Global Asset Management Market Sizing Database 2016
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Right capabilities to meet customer demand
Investment performance that offers value for money and meetscustomer expectations
Distribution aligned to an evolving customer base
Careful management of costs
Investment in simplification and scalability
For M&G to succeed requires…
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M&G has a competitive cost / income ratio by industry standards
M&G Group cost / income ratio vs. industry peers (%), 2015
52%57% 57%
61% 62% 63% 64% 67%73%
Amundi M&G BlackRock Man Group FranklinTempleton
Schroders Henderson Aviva Investors JPMorgan AssetManagement
Peer group Average: 62%
Source: M&G management information; company annual reports
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Investing for growth will see the M&G cost / income ratio rise…
M&G Group cost / income ratio (%), 2008 – 2015
61%
65%
63%
61%
59%58%
59%
57%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
…but it will remain below the peer group average over the medium-termSource: M&G management information
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M&G has a tradition of developing creative investment ideas which meet client needs, and a proven ability to convert these ideas into assets
under management
The future