anne bastian, cts/kth
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Peak Car?. Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH. I ndustrialized countries hit a plateau. International comparison, index of absolute car km per year. Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012. Economic growth explains less. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Peak Car?
Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH
Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012
Industrialized countries hit a plateau
International comparison, index of absolute car km per year
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Billion car km in Sweden per year
SIKA annual report
GDP index, fixed prices
Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,Trafikanalys körsträckor 1999-2012
Economic growth explains less
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
GDP per capita, index
Car km per adult, index
Inverse gas price, index
Inde
x
Money matters a lotTotal Sweden, 2002 index per adult
Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; GDP and adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se, bensin gas prices from spbi.se, all prices are inflation adjusted
Örebro
Halmsta
dM
ora
Vaxholm
Göteborg
Stock
holm
Södertä
lje
Solle
ntuna
Huddinge
Sundbyb
erg
Total Sw
eden0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Car driver km per adult per day
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se
Money matters a lot …given good alternatives
Peak Car in the cities - Why?
Investments and Policy• Mode and destination
alternatives!• Central housing• Parking, Congestion
Economy• Cost of driving• Income distribution,
employment
Peak Car in the cities - Why?
Lifestyles and Technology• Virtual trips and trip planning• Fewer but longer trips, flights• Youth delays licensing• Wealthier and healthier
pensioners
Investments and Policy• Mode and destination
alternatives!• Central housing• Parking, Congestion
Economy• Cost of driving• Income distribution,
employment
Peak Car in the cities - Why?
Investments and Policy• Mode and destination
alternatives!• Central housing• Parking, Congestion
Demography and Urbanization!• Growing cities (especially young, single, immigrant, habits still
forming)• Later family forming and employment, more students• Self selection, e.g. new parents moving to the suburbs
Economy• Cost of driving• Income distribution,
employment
Lifestyles and Technology• Virtual trips and trip planning• Fewer but longer trips, flights• Youth delays licensing• Wealthier and healthier
pensioners
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey
Opposite trends by life cycle group
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey
Opposite trends by life cycle group
More immigration – new habits
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Share of foreign born among 25-54 year olds
citiessuburb to cities densely populated regions
Souce: scb.se
More asylum immigration since 2006
Örebro
Halmsta
dM
ora
Vaxholm
Göteborg
Stock
holm
Södertä
lje
Solle
ntuna
Huddinge
Sundbyb
erg
Total Sweden
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Cars per adult
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Opposing car access trends
Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se
Cars get driven somewhat less(Multimodality, new habits, different owners, alternatives, economy)
Örebro Halmstad Mora Vaxholm Göteborg Stockholm Södertälje Sollentuna Huddinge Sundbyberg Total Sweden
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
km per car per day
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys incl both private and company cars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se
• Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options• Prepare for change in financing / taxes• Potential to steer is greater than assumed• Combine financial incentives with improved alternatives
– Congestion charge, parking space and price– Dense, mixed use, attractive centers. Fewer distant shopping centers– Public transit, walk, cycle alternatives
Conclusions
Peak Car?
Anne Bastian, CTS/[email protected]