Concept of SDG7 Roadmap andIntroduction to

Anis ZamanESCAP

Drivers of Energy Transition

2030 Agenda

SDGs (on Energy SDG7)

Universal access to affordable, reliable and

modern energy

Substantially increase the share of renewable

energy (in TFEC)

Double the rate of EE improvement

NDCs

Emission reduction commitment under the

Paris Agreement

Interlinkages between SDG7 and other SDGs• Energy is the key

enabler for most SDGs

• Interlinkages will influence both energy demand and supply at national levels

More information: From goals to joules: A quantitative approach of interlinkages between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629618308107

Energy Transition Pathways for the 2030 Agenda in Asia and the Pacific

72.0 67.69

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Historical Global outlook Current policy scenario

The big task ahead – transitioning to 2030

• Ministerial declaration from the second Asian Pacific Energy Forum (APEF) held in April 2018

“support members and associate members in the

implementation of the present Declaration by… assisting

countries, upon request, in developing national road maps

for the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal

7 and in mainstreaming the global targets related to

energy into national policies, plans and strategies.”

SDG7

7.1 ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services

7.2 increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

7.3 double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency

Proportion of population with access to electricity

Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology

Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption

Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP

GOAL TARGETS INDICATORS

SDG definition of clean cooking fuel: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-01-02.pdfSDG definition of renewable energy: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-02-01.pdfSDG definition of energy intensity: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-07-03-01.pdf

SDG7 needs an integrated approach

Access to electricity

Access to clean

cooking fuel

Renewable energy

Energy efficiency

Sustained economic growth

Popl growth and urbanization

Energy security

Resources availability

Least-cost option

Co

nst

rain

ts, d

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National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP)

An integrated tool to assist policymakers make informed policy decisions that would help achieve

SDG7 targets and NDC.

An integrated tool to assist policymakers make informed policy decisions that would help achieve

SDG7 targets and NDC.

SDG-responsive energy planning

2030 Now

TFEC under BAU

+ Additional electricity

+ Additional clean cooking fuel

- Energy efficiency improvement

Updated TFEC

Fossil fuel

Renewables

Fossil fuel

Renewables

Updated RE share

RE share

Op

tim

isat

ion

fo

r N

DC

Technologies

Investment

Business models Po

licy

anal

ysis

Technology deployment

Fiscal policies

Financing mechanisms

Now 2030Conventional planningSDG planning

Economic performances of technical options

e.g. NPV, IRR, etc.

STEP 1

Energy, emissions and investment

modelling

OSeMOSYS/LEAP

Interlinkages framework

Linking energy (SDG7) and other SDGs

Renewable energy resources data

STEP 3

Policy analysis

MCDA

OUTPUT

Policy recommendations

Enabling policy measures for each

SDG7 target

OnSSET

Spatial analysis

Historical energy data

Macroeconomic data e.g. GDP growth

rate

Demographic data

Use

r in

terf

ace

Technical options

Using the output from modelling, possible technical options to achieve the SDG7

targets (in agreement with the NDC target),

will be identified.

STEP 2

Economic analysis of technical options

Performance indicators

Macro and micro economic

parameters

Evaluation criteria

Database of policies and best

practices

NEXSTEP methodology

NE

XS

TE

P o

utp

ut

Energy Access

Types and mix of technologies

Appropriate business models (Best practices for the technology/service deployment)

Changes in emissions (align with NDC target)

Renewable energy

Appropriate share of renewable energy

Technology prioritization (techno-economic analysis)

Investment size per technologies(economic analysis)

Enabling policy measures(Policy analysis – ex-post)

Energy efficiency

Energy and cost reduction

Geographic relevance(spatial analysis)

National Roadmap To achieve SDG7 targets together with NDC target for the energy sector

NEXSTEP output - Examples

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

TFEC

(M

toe

)

Total Final Energy Consumption by sector

Industry Transport Residential Commercial Other Non Energy Utilization

NEXSTEP output - Examples

Coal, 55.00%

Gas, 15.00%

Oil, 2.00% Solar PV, 5.00%Wind, 3.00%

Hydro, 11.00%

Biofuels & Waste, 2.00%

Geothermal, 7.00%

Other,

9.00%

SHARE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL/SOURCE

0.000

100.000

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800.000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Elec

tric

ity

gen

erat

ion

(G

Wh

)

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL/SOURCE

Coal Gas Oil Solar PV Wind Hydropower Biofuels & Waste Geothermal

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

2016 2020 2025 2030

Emis

sio

ns

(MtC

O2

-e)

and

inve

stm

ent

($ b

illio

n)

ELECTRICITY GENERATION, EMISSIONS AND INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT

Emissions Investment Demand

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030U

SD B

ILLI

ON

FF SUBSIDY AND CARBON TAX TO REDUCE THE RE INVESTMENT GAP

FF subsidy liberalized Carbon tax Investment gap

Abso

rption c

hille

r

VSD

WH

R

Boiler

eff

icie

ncy

12

9

8

11

Build

ing c

ode

EE lig

hting

EP

C

MP

ES f

or

app

liance

s

10

9

4

7

Fu

el eff

sta

nd

ard

s

MR

T

EV

s and

Hyb

rids

7

7

6

ENERGY EFFICIECY IMPROVEMENT -

example520

MtOe430

Mtoe

40 Mtoe30 Mtoe 20 Mtoe

INDUSTRY RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT

Savings from FF subsidy reform Revenue from carbon price Investment gap

-

50

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10.00 15.00 20.00 25.70

USD

bill

ion

Example of investment analysis

Carbon price

Auto generated roadmap

1. Current energy situation1. Total final energy consumption

1. TFEC by sources2. TFEC by sectors3. Electricity

2. Total primary energy supply

2. SDG 7 status and BAU Scenario1. Access to electricity2. Access to clean cooking fuel3. Renewable energy4. Energy efficiency5. Emissions6. The gaps

3. SDG scenario1. Access to electricity2. Access to clean cooking fuel3. Energy efficiency4. Emissions5. Renewable energy

4. Pathways to 20301. Technical options2. Economic analysis3. Policy analysis

5. Policy recommendations

Development of NEXSTEP

• Methodology development• Developed through a learning process

• Peer reviewed by a panel of external experts in the subject matter

• Development of different components is underway

• Expecting a beta version by the end of 2019

• National consultations• Working with 3 pilot countries (Bangladesh, Georgia and Indonesia) to learn

about differences in national contexts

• Member States will be invited to use NEXSTEP from 2021.• ESCAP will provide training on the use of NEXSTEP for energy planning

NEXSTEP testing – Indonesia

• SDG7.1-access to electricity• Universal access will be achieved by 2020 (national plan)

• 23.3 TWh additional electricity by 2020 with an estimated investment of $ 2.3 billion

• SDG7.1-access to clean cooking fuel• 60.6 % in 2018, estimated to be 77% by 2030 (under BAU)

• Zero kerosene by 2020, 10 million household connect to natural gas by 2025

• 112 Mtoe natural gas is required (assuming natural gas supply through pipeline) by 2030

These results are for illustration only – they have been found during testing of the methodology and are likely to vary once further analysis is performed with the final version of NEXSTEP.

NEXSTEP testing – Indonesia

• Suggestions for improvement (some are specific to Indonesia)• The biomass estimation process has a very low confidence level

• Partial inclusion need to be allowed• Access to clean cooking fuel

• Natural gas should be preferred than LPG• Use of electricity should be explored

• Renewable energy• Reduction of oil should be largely compensated by biofuel.

• Energy efficiency• Difficult to halve the EI, option to choose a percent would be good

It’s not a traditional energy modelling software.

It’s an integrated system planning approach to achieve SDG7 and NDC

Thank you