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Angus Council

Housing Need & Demand Assessment

Stakeholder Consultation23rd February 2010

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Aims of Session• To present outcomes of the Housing

Need & Demand Assessment the requirement for affordable housing the requirement for market housing

• To test findings against stakeholder knowledge and experience

• To examine options to meet housing need

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Agenda

10.15 – 10.30 Introduction/Welcome10.30 – 11.00 HNADA Study Findings11.00 – 11.15 Coffee 11.15 – 12.00 Focus Groups: Key Strategic

Policy Interventions & Meeting Housing Need and Demand

12.00 – 12.15 Focus Group Feedback12.15 – 12.45 Next Steps12.45 Close of Session

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HNADA Objectives

1. To provide an assessment of future housing needs & demands for defined housing market areas.

2. To provide reliable information to support the LHS and Development Planning framework

3. To provide an assessment of type, size and tenure imbalances across the defined geographical area

4. To propose housing supply targets

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Housing Market Areas

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Housing Market Areas

HMA Settlements

North Angus Montrose, Brechin, Edzell, Ferryden and Hillside

South Angus Monifieth, Carnoustie, Newtyle, Monikie, Wellbank, Tealing, Birkhill/Muirhead, Liff and Auchterhouse.

East Angus Arbroath, Friockheim, Carmyllie and Inverkeilor

West Angus Forfar, Kirriemuir, Kingennie and Letham

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Assessing the Requirement for

Affordable Housing

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Plus

Current NeedX (a quota)

Newly Arising Need

Minus

Equals

Supply ofAffordable

Housing

Net Shortfall/Surplus

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Current Need: Unsuitable Housing• Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175• Concealed Households: 219• Overcrowding: 779• Special Needs: 3,194• Poor Condition: 428• Harassment: 127

Current Need = 4,922

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Total Current Need – Eliminate:• ‘In situ solutions’:

Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680 Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514

• Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242Then eliminate• % can meet need in private housing market

52% households can meet market entry price

Net Current Need = 2,206

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Newly Arising Need• New household formation: 752

Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%)

• Existing households falling into need: 724 Change in household circumstances including

annual flow of homeless households

Newly Arising Estimate = 1,235

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Affordable Housing Supply• Affordable housing relets: 1,075• Committed new affordable supply: 50 • Turnover net of units taken out of

management: 0 demolitions

• Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Interim Calculation Estimate• Current need = 4,922

Net current need = 2,206 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)

• Annual newly arising need = 1,235• Annual total need = 1,456• Annual affordable supply = 1,125• Estimated shortfall = -331• 10 year Est. shortfall = -3,310

Affordable Housing Need Calculation

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Interim Calculation Estimate• Current need = 4,922

Net current need = 2,206 Net annual current need = 221 (10 years)

• Annual newly arising need = 1,103• Annual total need = 1,324• Annual affordable supply = 1,125• Estimated shortfall = -199• 10 year Est. shortfall = -1,990

Affordable Housing Need Low Formation Scenario

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Depending on the rate of household formation the annual shortfall in Angus ranges from 199 to 331

This results in a year 10 shortfall of between 1,990 and 3,310

Key Message

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Disaggregated Calculation for

Affordable Housing

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Projecting Future Need

Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis:– assumes the current profile of housing supply can

meet the type of need identified– assumes need is met over 5 year period

Disaggregated Analysis:− determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’− detailed match of households to homes by size,

area, property type and tenure− assesses if annual need is met by supply and

extent to which backlog can be reduced− identifies length of time to address backlog− provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/

surplus to inform strategic planning

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Matched to

Residual Supply

Residual Backlog

Annual Newly Arising Need

Area

Size

Type

Annual Supply

Area

Size

Type

Backlog Housing Need

Area

Size

Type

Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated

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Model Overview

•Disaggregated Methodology•Model Assumptions

BacklogNewly Arising NeedSupply

•Model Outputs•Key Questions

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Base Assumptions• The model is based on the 3

components of the aggregated HNADA calculation Backlog figure Newly arising need figure Supply figure

• 10 year projections model• Data input by HMA, Size, Type

• 4 Housing Market Areas North HMA (Brechin & Montrose), East HMA (Arbroath), South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws), West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)

• Affordability Outcomes applied by HMA

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Disaggregated Outcomes Key Outcomes

• Year 1: 2,407 households have unmet need• Year 5: 3,111 households have unmet need• Year 10: 4,132 households have unmet

need

Headlines at Year 5• Shortfall of affordable housing highest in

South (-1,742) & West (-1,043) HMA’s• Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4

bedroom properties: (-1,174) (38%)• 74% of shortfall is in General Needs housing• 26% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type

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Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size

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Low Formation Scenario Disaggregated

Outcomes Key Outcomes

• Year 1: 2,175 households have unmet need• Year 5: 2,413 households have unmet need• Year 10: 2,854 households have unmet

need

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Taking account of size, type and area mismatches and depending on the rate of household formation the year 10 shortfall in Angus ranges from 2,854 to 4,132

Key Message

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Assessing the Requirement for Market Housing

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Market Housing Requirement Methodology

Annual Inward Migration

Market Entry Level

Current Need for Market Housing

Mid-Market Properties

Upper End of Market

Newly Arising Need for Market Housing

Annual Internal Demand

Market Supply

Affordability Analysis

Total Need & Demand for Market Housing

Market Entry Level

Mid-Market Properties

Upper End of Market

Match Need & Demand to Supply

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Market Housing Requirement

Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2• Relates to properties below £129,950 • Total Shortfall Year 1: -977• Shortfall over 10 Years: -8,276

East North South West

Year 1 -196 -285 -253 -244

Year 5 -943 -1,378 -1,234 -1,186

Year 10 -1,585 -2,385 -2,218 -2,087

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

Quartile 1& 2 : Cumulative Need by LA Area, Yr 1,5,10

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Market Housing Requirement

Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4• Relates to properties £193,750 and above • Total Surplus Year 1: +154• Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,030

East North South West

Year 1 64 107 -66 49

Year 5 356 578 -302 281

Year 10 1,012 1,526 -356 848

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000Quartile 3-4 : Cumulative Need by LA Area: Yr 1,5,10

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Market Housing – Reduced Demand

Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2• Relates to properties below £129,950 • Total Shortfall Year 1: -831• Shortfall over 10 Years: -6,812

East North South West

Year 1 -156 -246 -221 -208

Year 5 -744 -1,187 -1,073 -1,006

Year 10 -1,188 -2,003 -1,896 -1,726

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

Quartile 1& 2 : Cumulative Need by LA Area, Yr 1,5,10

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Market Housing - Reduced Demand

Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4• Relates to properties £193,750 and above • Total Surplus Year 1: +206• Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,554

East North South West

Year 1 77 117 -49 61

Year 5 423 627 -214 339

Year 10 1,147 1,623 -179 963

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Quartile 3&4 : Cumulative Need by LA Area, Yr 1,5,10

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Total need = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-8,276) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,030) = -5,246

Key Message

Total need (Reduced Demand) = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-6,812) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,554) = -3,258

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Key Message

The Total Requirement for Market housing within Angus over the next 10 years will range from -3,258 to -5,246

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HNADA Recommendations

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Recommendations• The number of households in need does

NOT equal number of units to be delivered• Need could be met through range of

interventions programmed though LHS: developing partnerships with the private

rented sector; tackling private sector disrepair; using assistive technology to promote

independence in older people; tackling and preventing homelessness; making better use of the current affordable

and private stock; developing flexible tenure options; and increasing housing supply.

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Tackling Homelessness

2012 Target

Local Need

Providing Housing Support

Assessment

Local Need

Fuel Poverty Strategy

Climate Change

Challenge

Local Actions

Private SectorHousing

Enforcement

SOA

Local Duty

Meeting Housing Need & Demand

Housing Supply Target

Housing MarketArea Evidence

Local Delivery

Role of PRS in Meeting Need

Achieving Sustainable Communities

SHIP

Local Housing Strategy

Investment DirectionDevelopment Plan Link

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Recommendations

• AC should prepare an action plan quantify potential impact of each

intervention set targets for projected impact on overall

level of unmet need

• Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting

• This process should consider land capacity development industry capacity availability of development funding corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement