ANGOLA FOOD SECURITY UPDATE

January – February 2004

USAID Funded Activity World Food Programme

Fig.1. Basic Map of Huambo

HuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuambo

BailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundo

TchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenje

Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-Tchikala-TcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohangaTcholohanga

CaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaala

UkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkuma

MungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungo

LonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbali

LongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjo

EkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunha

CatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungoCatchihungo

CaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembe

BieBieBieBieBieBieBieBieBie

Kuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza Sul

Lunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda Sul

HuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuamboHuambo

Vila NovaVila NovaVila NovaVila NovaVila NovaVila NovaVila NovaVila NovaVila NovaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunhaEkunha

UkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkumaUkuma

KatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungoKatchiungo

LongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjoLongonjo

BailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundoBailundo

MungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungoMungo

LonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbaliLonduimbali

CaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaalaCaala

ndandandandandandandandanda

CacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCaconda

BimbeBimbeBimbeBimbeBimbeBimbeBimbeBimbeBimbe

HengueHengueHengueHengueHengueHengueHengueHengueHengue

UssoqueUssoqueUssoqueUssoqueUssoqueUssoqueUssoqueUssoqueUssoque

CuimaCuimaCuimaCuimaCuimaCuimaCuimaCuimaCuima

gagagagagagagagaga

elaelaelaelaelabelabelabelaela

PambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangala

TchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenjeTchindjenje

CassongueCassongueCassongueCassongueCassongueCassongueCassongueCassongueCassongue

BalomboBalomboBalomboBalomboBalomboBalomboBalomboBalomboBalombo

ChinguarChinguarChinguarChinguarChinguarChinguarChinguarChinguarChinguar

CatataCatataCatataCatataCatataCatataCatataCatataCatata

ChinhamaChinhamaChinhamaChinhamaChinhamaChinhamaChinhamaChinhamaChinhama

HunguloHunguloHunguloHunguloHunguloHunguloHunguloHunguloHungulo

LungeLungeLungeLungeLungeLungeLungeLungeLunge

LuvembaLuvembaLuvembaLuvembaLuvembaLuvembaLuvembaLuvembaLuvemba

WamaWamaWamaWamaWamaWamaWamaWamaWama

CusseCusseCusseCusseCusseCusseCusseCusseCusse

ChicumaChicumaChicumaChicumaChicumaChicumaChicumaChicumaChicuma

CaCaCaCCCCCC

Capital of municipioTowns

Province borderProvince capitalMunicipio border

KEY

Road Network

Highlights Above normal rainfall and localised flooding hit large areas of Huambo province. This Food Security Update addresses the possible impact of these rains. Although the actual impact of this rainfall on food security remains to be assessed, this Food Security Update analyzes some of the possibilities. More details will be provided following a joint FEWS NET/FAO/WFP mission planned in late-February. The report will be available on March 5. Heavy rains in some areas of Huambo may have caused crop loss or reduced yields, as well as livestock deaths and destruction of houses. These rains and subsequent flooding may have also disrupted transport infrastructure, hampering market activity in the area. Restrictions to cereal and livestock trade are particularly significant to the food security of the province, as are potential delays in the supply of manufactured goods from neighbouring provinces. This would mean higher consumer prices and reduced food access especially for the poorest households. Given that the most vulnerable groups in Huambo, vulnerable returnees and asset-poor residents who rely on markets for 59% of their food for more than three quarters of the year, this is cause for concern. While excess rain may negatively affect food security in the area, it is generally considered that WFP stocks in Huambo are sufficient to meet the needs, at least over the coming months.

Concerns Raised Over Excess Rainfall in

Huambo The provincial Government of Huambo has raised concerns over the current levels of rainfall. Consistent with the SARCOF (Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum) predictions, the second rains in parts of Huambo have been above normal, but their impact on crop production and

overall food security in the province needs to be better assessed. Figure 2 presents the satellite rainfall estimates for the entire 2003 OND (October November December) season, while Figure 3 compares current rainfall volumes (OND 2003) with the long term mean (LTM) in selected municipalities. These estimates are in line with airport station data reported by, the National Meteorological Institute (INAMET).

Special Focus on Huambo

FEWS NET (a USAID funded project) and WFP jointly produce on a monthly basis the Angola Food Security Update in collaboration with partners, including The Consortium for Development Relief in Angola (CDRA) and the National Food Security Directorate (GSA). For more information, contact Paulo Filipe, FEWS NET Country Representative by e-mail at pfilipe@fews.net or by telephone (244) 2 443 926 / (244) 91 512 244. For more information, please visit the FEWS NET Website: www.fews.net/angola.

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Figure 3. Comparison of current rainfall with long term mean

Tchindgenje

0

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Oct I Oct III Nov II Dec I Dec III

Dekad

[mm

]

LTM

OND 2003

Caala

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Oct I Oct III Nov II Dec I Dec III

Dekad

[mm

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LTM

OND 2003

Ukuma

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Oct I Oct III Nov II Dec I Dec III

Dekad

[mm

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LTM

OND 2003

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Early predictions for the Planalto area, including Huambo Province, indicated normal to 30 percent above normal rainfall occurring in most of the maize

growing areas. The season started effectively in the third dekad of October in most municipalities. Mid-November was characterized by wet weather conditions in the central, western and southern part of Huambo while isolated rainfall was observed in northern and eastern areas. Heavy but poorly distributed rains were observed during the months of November and December that might have caused damage to maize planted in the low-lying land. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that in November, rainfall has been significantly above average in six municipalities – Mungo, Bailundo, Katchiungo, Tchicala-Tcholoanga, Ukuma, and Tchingenje. Overall volumes recorded in subsequent periods (dekads) were close to normal. Overall, the impact of poor rainfall in terms of creating excessive soil moisture detrimental for plant growth distribution will have to be assessed in the field. A rapid field assessment, conducted early in February by the Food Security Unit (GSA), reported a normal start of the rainy season. According to their report, rains were persistently high from November onwards. The report estimated potential maize and beans loss should current rainfall levels persist for the next 30 days. A joint FEWS-NET/FAO/WFP follow up mission is planned for late February to assess the situation further.

Markets and Food Prices

Excess rainfall begins to have an impact on market activity

Despite the structural constraints affecting the efficient functioning of markets, market activity has been restored in some parts of the province. In an attempt to improve the general understanding of the evolution of market activities, the provincial VA group identified three regions showing different levels of market development (see Figure 4).

Figure 2. Satellite rainfall estimates October (mm)

November (mm)

December (mm)

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

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Figure 4. Classification of market development areas

CaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembeCaluquembe

BieBieBieBieBieBieBieBieBie

Kuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza SulKuanza Sul

Lunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulLunda SulCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCacondaCaconda

PambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangalaPambangala

Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Primary Market Development AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment Area

Second Major Second Major Second Major Second Major Second Major Second Major Second Major Second Major Second Major Market Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development AreaMarket Development Area

Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Slow Market Development AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment AreaDevelopment Area

Source: VA January 04 - Huambo

Figure 5. Average monthly cost of the food basket

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10.00

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30.00

40.00

50.00

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

[USD

/Mon

th]

Maize GrainMaize Flour

Source: WFP/VAM Database

Major cereal and livestock market growth areas were identified around Caala, Longonjo, Ukuma, Ekunha, and Ngove. These areas normally account for about half of the annual maize production of the province and 1/3 of the total beef sold in the main market in Huambo. Other areas of market growth include the Alto Hama in Londuimbali, and Bailundo. These areas produce a large share of the cereals produced in the province. Furthermore, the market in Alto Hama is growing rapidly because it is located along a major trading route with the west coast and functions as a transhipment point between markets in costal towns and those in the interior of the province. Key informants report that the reestablishment of cereals and livestock markets in Bailundo has been catalyzed by increased local demand for non-food items such as clothing, radios and other manufactured goods. The Northeast and Eastern parts of the province, which have been more severely affected by the impact of the war, show much slower development of market activity. This may be also associated with slow recovery of cereal production in these areas. Cereal markets in Tchicala Tcholoanga and Catchiungo will grow in the coming years if road transportation to Chinguar in the neighbouring province improves. This route used to be an

important trade route with Bie and Kuando Kubango and Namibia, which supplied a substantial portion of the manufactured good to markets in Huambo. Although it is too early to estimate the overall impact of excess rains on the province the already degraded infrastructure including roads, bridges and the railway may have been affected, and it will disrupt markets and fuel supply further increasing prices, which are already unseasonably high. Heavy rains are influencing current price levels

Although food prices normally rise during this time of the year, the sharp shifts observed in November and December cannot be explained by the depletion of domestic stock levels alone. Heavy rains are affecting the supply of food in almost areas of the province. In June and August 2003, for the first time in four years, the average price level (indexed by the food basket) dropped below USD 20 in the period following the main harvest (see Figure 5). The decline in prices was clearly a result of not only increased food production from the 2002-03 harvest but also better supply of food to the main markets. Unlike the previous four years, current price levels remained low until about the last week of October. A sudden rise in the price of all major food commodities was observed coincidently in the months that rainfall was reported highest – November/December 2003 and January 2004.

In the first week of December 2003, increases in the price of vegetable oil and salt, which are supplied from outside the province, accounted to 30 percent of the increase in the cost of the food basket. Whether the sharp increase in food prices are passed

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Figure 6. Current priorities and vulnerability in Huambo

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Immediate AssistanceWarningWatchConcerns Remain

on to vulnerable consumers remains uncertain. However, it should be noted that vulnerable returnees and the asset-poor residents who account for 35 percent of the total population of the province, depend on markets. More than 59 percent of their food is purchased in markets and 42 percent of their income from sale of farm labour. As a result, the most vulnerable families may be doubly affected by loss of labour opportunities on farms suffering from crop loss, further reducing their food access.

WFP Current Stock Position

The level of WFP total food stocks in Huambo as of February 15 stands at 1,562 MT. Maize and pulses stocks are reported at 916 MT and 152 MT respectively. At current distribution rates (486,947 beneficiaries per month) these stocks should meet the

food needs of vulnerable people for more than two months, assuming no further increase in the caseload in the coming month.

Current Priorities and Vulnerability in Huambo

This section provides brief indications of the food security conditions in different municipalities. Populations assessed have been classified in one of four categories based on the food security status and urgency of attention required by decision makers. People who are currently food insecure require immediate and urgent assistance. People with high vulnerability are expected to require assistance before the end of or during the lean season. The situation of those with moderate and low vulnerability will need close surveillance.

IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE The most recent vulnerability assessment report concluded that although food security has improved in large areas of the province, more than 100,000 people need immediate assistance. Some 86 percent of these people are returnees who have resettled primarily in areas around Hengue Luvemba, Bimbe, and Cambuengo in Bailundo and Mungo municipalities. The WFP stock situation as of February 15 indicates that there are sufficient resources to meet the needs of the currently food insecure population.

WARNING Some action is required as the food security situation

deteriorates Whether the potentially vulnerable returnees in Mungo, Bailundo, and Tchicala Tcholoanga received enough seeds to enable them to participate in the current crop season is not known with certainty. Nonetheless, close attention to the following is required: Excess rainfall in late November hit primarily Mungo and Bailundo municipalities – both receiving 60 percent above normal rainfall. Therefore, assessment of crop performance in those areas is a priority for the February Joint Assessment Mission. In addition, Mungo has been classified as a slowly developing market area making it difficult for returnees to access their food through markets and trade. Should the food security situation deteriorate further, more than 250,000 more people will need immediate food assistance. Areas most likely to require some assistance include Cathiungo, Samboto, Cuima Chilata, Tchinjenje, Tchicala Tcholoanga and the peripheries of Huambo.

WATCH Close Monitoring Required Although food insecurity is widespread in the province, the food security situation of an additional 300,000 the returnees and asset-poor resident farmers in Caala and Ukuma will deteriorate if their crops were lost due to heavy rains.