angela druckman | missing the target: to what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in...
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Missing the target? To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in
expected carbon reductions?
Angela Druckman, Mona Chitnis, Steve Sorrell and Tim Jackson
4th International Conference on Carbon AccountingEdinburgh Conference Center
25th November 2011
Progress towards a low carbon society?
• UK Government is relying on households to be key actors in achieving its GHG emissions reduction targets;
• Consumption emissions generally rising;
• Why? Lack of effective policies? ........ or a systemic problem?
Illustration of rebound effects
Lower running
costs
Driver further or more often
Lower petrol bills
Holiday in Spain
Fuel efficient - less energy
More energy
More energy
Direct
Indirect
Embodied energy
Rebound effect studies• To what extent is the rebound effect a problem?
– How can it be minimised?
• Energy v. CO2 v. GHG emissions
• Two studies:– Abatement actions – lead to indirect rebound
effect only;– Energy efficiency actions – lead to direct and
indirect rebound effects.
Abatement actions study
• Household: reduce thermostat by 1oC;
• Food: reduce food waste;
• Transport: replace car journeys <2miles by walking/cycling.
Abatement action study
Action£
Expenditure avoided
Re-use £
Re-spend
Bank/Invest
Expected GHG reduction
ΔH
GHGs due to re-use
ΔGRebound =
ΔGΔH
If ΔG > ΔH; Rebound > 100%; Backfire
Re-use of avoided expenditure• ‘Behaviour as usual’
– according to income elasticities;
• ‘Least worst’ rebound– in least GHG intensive
category;• Worst case rebound
– in most GHG intensive category;
• Effect of changing savings?
Underlying models• SELMA
Surrey Environmental Lifestyle Mapping Framework
– GHG intensities of UK household consumption and savings (1992-2004);
– Quasi-Multi-Regional Environmentally-Extended Input-Output model.
• ELESAEconometric Lifestyle Environmental Scenario Analysis model
– Income elasticities;– Exogenous Non-Economic Factors (ExNEF) (total non-price and non-
income effects).
Limitations
• Assume no economy-wide price effects.
• UK average household;
• 16 expenditure categories.
£££
UK estimated average household expenditures and GHGs in 2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000Ex
pend
iture
and
savi
ngs
(£)
Estimated average annual UK household expenditure and savings
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
GHG
emiss
ions
(tC
O2e
)
Estimated average annual UK household GHG emissions
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012GH
G in
tens
ity (t
CO2e
/£)
GHG intensities
Results of study
Rebound effect for different actions: ‘Behaviour as usual’
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Household thermostat
Food Travel All actions
GHG
emiss
ions
(tCO
2e)
Expected GHG reductions (ΔH) (tCO2e)
GHGs due to use of avoided expenditure (ΔG) (tCO2e)
7%
51%
25%
34%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Behaviour as usual
Worst case Least worst case
100% investment
GHG
emiss
ions
(tC
O2e
) Expected GHG reduction (ΔH ) (tCO2e)
GHGs due to use of avoided expenditure (ΔG) (tCO2e)
Rebound34%
Rebound515%
Rebound12%
Rebound26%
All 3 actions with varying assumptions concerning re-spend
Green investment
Energy efficiency study• Additional parameters
– Embodied energy – Capital expenditure
• Subsidized/unsubsidized• From loan or savings
Collaboration with Steven Firth,
Loughborough University
Energy Efficiency Study Results
Source: Chitnis, Sorrell, Firth, Druckman and Jackson (forthcoming)
Measure
Rebound * Minimum Maximum1 Cavity wall insulation 3 92 Loft insulation professional to 270 mm -21 263 Condensing boiler 7 74 Tank insulation 6 85 CFL 9 126 LED -14 87 1,2,3,4, 5 in combination 3 108 1,2,3,4, 6 in combination 1 109 Solar thermal -302 2810 Diesel efficient car 40 40
* Assumes behaviour as usual
.... Our next study:• Variation of rebound across income groups
Policy implications• Rebound is not negligible.
Policy-makers need to take it into account.
• Shift patterns of expenditure to lower GHG intensive goods and services;
• Encourage ‘green’ investment’.
References• Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson (2011). "Missing carbon
reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households " Energy Policy 39: 3572–3581.
• Sorrell, S. (2007). The rebound effect: an assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency. London, UK, UKERC.
........ watch this space ……
Missing the target? To what extent does the rebound effect cause a shortfall in
expected carbon reductions?
Angela Druckman, Mona Chitnis, Steve Sorrell and Tim Jackson
Contact: [email protected]
5th International Conference on Carbon AccountingEdinburgh Conference Center
25th November 2011