andy stirling - nexus methods (rgs 2016)

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Andy StirlingSPRU & STEPS Centre

University of Sussex

Chair’s plenary lecture for Royal Geographical Society / Institute for British Geographers conference on ‘Nexus Thinking’

Ondaatje Theatre, Imperial College, LondonTuesday 30th August 2016

23rd June 2016

Meeting ‘Nexus’ Challenges:

from policy connections to political transformations

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What is ‘the Nexus’?

food

water

energy


food

water

energy

Substantive imperatives for ‘joined up policy…?

… or instrumental

pressure for policy justification?


climatedevelopment

food

environmentsecurity

globalisation

energy

population

migrationurbanisation

water

water

climatedevelopment

food

environmentsecurity

globalisation

energy

population

migrationurbanisation

1: ‘NEXUS THINKING’

SPANS ACROSS

DIFFERENT SILOS


Phenonema Under Scrutiny

• social and material world

•“systems” and “contexts”

• “scales” and “levels”

• “actors” and “networks”

• “values” and “interests”

• “frames” and “narratives”

• “causes” and “effects”

• processes and relations

• “knowledges”,“incertitudes”

• “positives” and “negatives”

• “structures” and “agents”

• “actions” and “reactions”

• “imaginations” and “visions”

• “metrics” and ”indices”

cost-benefit analysis

risk assessment

decision analysis

multiattribute utility theory

technology assessment

life cycle analysis

optimisation modelling

Bayesian networks

extended accounting

data mining

delphi methods

Quantitative Culture Qualitative Culture

No shortage of candidate ‘Nexus methods’

scenario workshops

focus groups

participatory appraisal

stakeholder deliberation

ethnomethodology

collaborative design

capabilities assessment

strategic appraisal

action research

cooperative research

study groups

Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…

A Key Common Problem: Concealed Ambiguity

0.001 0.1 10 1000externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

wind

solar

biomass



0.001 0.1 10 1000

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

21

wind

solar

biomass

n =

‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

minimum maximum25% 75%

low RISK high



coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

36

20

wind 18

solar 11

biomass 22

31

21

16

n =

…‘sound science’, ‘evidence based’ Nexus analyses justify many policies



Equally true of qualitative research, but this is better appreciated

All Quantification is Qualitatively Framed

Equally true of qualitative research, but this is better appreciated


Framing Applies in Every Setting and Level

TRANSCENDS

‘PLACE’, ‘SPACE’ & ‘SCALE’

under-determined realities

Framing ‘the Nexus’

Insights well known in geography:

-relational ontologies

-constructivist epistemologies

-nonrepresentational theories

…

But conventionally recognised only

in s eparated academic s ilos , often

mos tly concerned with critique …

… and more preoccupied with

‘how to know?’ than ‘what to do?’

‘system’‘focus’

under-determined realities picture of problem/solution


‘scope’




‘scope’


‘cause’

‘effect’



environment‘scope’


subjective framing

‘effect’


‘cause’view 1

picture of problem/solution


environment

‘system’

under-determined realities diverse picturesplural frames

‘effect’

‘cause’

‘scope’

‘focus’

view 2

view 1

cont

endin

g

know

ledge

s

and

value

s


plural frames

‘system’

‘cause’

‘effect’

under-determined realities diverse pictures

‘scope’

‘focus’

view 3

view 1

view 2

cont

endin

g

know

ledge

s

and

value

s


view 4

plural frames

‘system’

‘cause’

‘effect’


‘scope’

‘focus’

cont

endin

g

know

ledge

s

and

value

s

view 1

view 2

view 3


view 4

plural frames

‘system’

‘cause’

‘effect’


‘scope’

‘focus’

view 1

view 2

view 3


different notions of ‘what to do?’


ENTANGLES

‘OBJECTS’ & ‘SUBJECTS’

view 4

plural frames

‘system’

‘cause’

‘effect’


‘scope’

‘focus’

cont

endin

g

know

ledge

s

and

value

s


incu

mben

ts

view 2

view 3

view 1

“THE NEXUS”

“THE NEXUS SOLUTION”

incu

mben

ts

power in knowledge

‘system’

‘cause’

‘effect’


academic

government

local people

diverse pictures

‘scope’

‘focus’

cont

endin

g

know

ledge

s

and

value

s

“THE NEXUS”



HIGHLIGHTS

POWER AND POLITICS

IN KNOWLEDGE

“THE NEXUS”

“THE NEXUS SOLUTION”

fundamental natural laws

biophysical environments

societies & economies

cultures &

institutions

Science (of all kinds!) is a key means by

which to remind “the real world”

of politics about the

“real real world” of everything else

The Political Conditioning of Nexus Thinking

KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES

fundamental nature



cultures & instituions

But knowledge is produced by people,

with cultures, pursuing practices

in institutions

… in political ways

so knowledge is jointly shaped to

reflect both social and natural orders


KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES

fundamental nature



INSTITUTIONS

This leads to a paradox

What is inside…

… is also outside


KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES



INSTITUTIONS

This leads to a paradox

What is inside…

… is also outside

… as in a Klein Bottle, knowledge is on the

inside and the outside of human action

KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES


KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES

fundamental nature

knowledge practices


INSTITUTIONS

KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES



UNDERSCORES

CO-CONSTITUTING OF

KNOWLEDGE AND ACTION

Constituting knowledges and actions are founded in equal social relations

Strongly resisted by elite science and incumbent governance institutions

Sustainability As Political Action

Driven by decades of collective struggle by grassroots social movements

Understandings of new hopeful visions of alternative directions for progress

social equality

human wellbeing

ecological integrity

Sustainability (& Nexus) as Political not Technical

Meeting the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

Brundtland (1987) codified challenge for elite institutions of global governance

Provide normative guides for accountability in driving directions of social progress

Emphasising consistentlythroughout, importance of:“effective citizen participation” and “greater democracy”

environmental integrity

social equality

human wellbeing

SUSTAINABLILITY

Even the most specific environmental issues, all initially vigorously resisted

pesticides…pesticides… asbestos…pesticides… asbestos… radiation…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead… carcinogens…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead… carcinogens… CFCs…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead… carcinogens… CFCs… EDCs…


And innovations now mainstream were initially excluded and suppressed

organic farming…organic farming… wind turbines…organic farming… wind turbines… super-efficiency…organic farming… wind turbines… super-efficiency… closed cycle production…

Constituting problems & solutions both of Sustainabilty & the Nexusdepend on asserting alternative knowledges and visions


2015: Sustainability as Care: “leave no one behind”

SDGs offer political ratchets and pivots for collective action & democratic challenge

2015: Sustainability as Care: “leave no one behind”

In this key normative tradition where it emerged, ‘nexus thinking’ can help illuminate, enable and render accountable, a complexity and multiplicity of contexts, perspectives and possibilities

In this key normative tradition where it emerged, ‘nexus thinking’ can help illuminate, enable and render accountable, a complexity and multiplicity of contexts, perspectives and possibilities

ocean “eco cities”

carbon capture

reorganised services

offshore windnuclear power marine energy

bioenergy

grassroots renewables

centralised solar

eg: alternative infrastructures for ‘the’ zero carbon transition …

in branching social and technological innovation pathways

… choice is about democratic politics, not managerial control

Sustainability and Nexus Thinking

But Nexus Rhetorics also bring Another Challenge

If seen as technical and singular, rather than political and plural…Nexus thinking can become about control (rather than care); narrowing understandings, closing down choices, justifying power

Simplified instrumental assessment…

eg: -singular ‘bottom line’-‘simple solutions’-‘sound science’-evidence based policy

Subverting appreciations for complexity, uncertainty, context-sensitivity, multiple framings and diverse options

If seen as technical and singular, rather than political and plural…Nexus thinking can become about control (rather than care); narrowing understandings, closing down choices, justifying power

eg: -securitisation-nuclear power-big pharma-IP intense GM

Incumbent institutions & technologies…



If seen as technical and singular, rather than political and plural…it can become about control (rather than care); narrowing understandings, closing down choices, justifying incumbent power

Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visionsto means: detailed regulation of modalities

Singular top down visionsfor ‘the transition’ - models

- missions- handbooks- manuals- “road maps”





Anthropocene planetary management “control variables

of the Earth”

“non-negotiable”

“absolutely no uncertainty” … “no compromise”

humanity as a “control force”





Climate geoengineeringmaintaining “optimal Holocene conditions”



From Rhetorics to Practice

Affirm key insights and qualities of ‘Nexus thinking’ discussed here…

1 ‘nexus thinking’ spans across different academic and policy silos

2 ‘nexus thinking’ is framed in ways that transcend place, space and scale

3 ‘nexus thinking’ means recognizing subjects are entangled in objects

4 ‘nexus thinking’ highlights politics and power in knowledge

5 ‘nexus thinking’ enacts co-constituting of knowledge and action

… ways of knowing are kinds of doing

INPUTS

(aspects taken into account within practice of research or appraisal)

problems, options, pros / cons, issues, uncertainties, perspectives

INPUTS

(things that are taken into account)

Pro

blems, options, pros / cons, issues, uncertainties, perspectives

narrow

broad

closing down opening up

expert / analytic

participatory / deliberative

OUTPUTS

(aspects that are conveyed outwards into wider discourse)

’Plural conditional’ conclusions…

… if X then A … if Y then B …


A multiplicity of practical ‘nexus methods’ can help resist closure … helping enable collective action in long tradition of sustainability

narrow

broad


expert / analytic


decision analysis

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

sustainability

safety

impacts



narrow

broad


expert / analytic


citizen’s juries

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS



narrow

broad


expert / analytic


citizen’s juries


q-method

scientometric mapping

open space

multicriteria mapping

extended foresightcitizen’s juries

decision analysis

stakeholder negotiation

participatory sensitivity analysis


risk assessment

interactive modelling

structured interviews

participant observation

multi-site ethnographic-

methods

citizen’s juries

consensus conference

open hearings

concurrent evidence

critical narratives

intervention futures

PIPA

plural photovoice

system histories

innovation histories

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS



spot-the-narrative

narrow

broad


expert / analytic


citizen’s juries

decision analysis

participatory rural appraisal


q-method

sensitivity analysis

deliberative mapping

scientometric mapping

open space


risk assessment

interactive modelling

structured interviews

narrative-based participant observation

multi-site ethnographic-

methods

citizen’s juries

consensus conference

open hearings

dissenting opinions

multi-criteria mapping

extended foresight



risk assessment

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

The Dance with Power

Familiar political pressures act very strongly on Nexus methods to: justify decisions, command authority, foster trust, secure acceptance, manage blame

expert / analytic


narrow

broad



q-method open space

multicriteria mapping

participatory sensitivity

analysis

intervention futures PIPA

plural photovoice

system histories

innovation histories

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

Nexus thinking: from connecting to transforming…

Rigour means actively balancing incumbent pressures for justification… the most important practical Nexus capability is enabling democratic struggle

andy stirling - nexus methods (rgs 2016)

Environment