andy keating's 2015 annual market report
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CONTACT US FOR A CUSTOMIZED ANALYSIS ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST! [ 1 ]
THE MARKETPLACE ANNUAL REPORTPERFORMANCE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN SELECT CITIES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES
Q4 2015 MARKET REPORT
ANDY [email protected]
206.841.8084
Recently we’ve seen a global stock market correction and our first interest rate increase in 8 years. Locally we’ve seen double-digit drops in housing inventory and double-digit increases in sales. Fortunately, our short-term forecast indicates that it is still a great time to be BOTH a seller and buyer. For sellers, available homes on the market remain scarce. A “normal” Puget Sound market has 3-4 months housing supply. Currently King County has a 1 month inventory supply, Snohomish has 1.7, and double-digit price appreciation in many areas. With nearly 70% of housing produced projected as apartment building over the next few years, if you’re thinking of selling your residence, 2016 may be the best time in the foreseeable future - simply because of supply and demand. For buyers, mortgage rates were finally raised in December, but continue to hover near record lows of under 4%. We suggest buying ASAP because over the next few years, current rates could increase up to 50%, and housing inventory will continue to stay scarce. In addition, the federal government recently introduced new mandatory closing disclosure requirements (TRID) that will delay all financed closings by at least 1-2 weeks.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana
Since January 2013 (when our market began to recover), we’ve seen a consistent trend when the calendar turns over to the new year: prices increase steadily through spring, level off during summer, and fall as the holidays approach. 2016 will most likely be different. Why? 1) It’s an election year without an incumbent presidential candidate. In 2000 and 2008, housing markets decreased and / or were flat. Unpredictability causes fear.2) We are seeing a housing market similar to that of the 2006/07 election period that preceded the housing market crash in 2008. Build-able land is scarce, and builders and buyers are overpaying with multiple offers over asking price. We are experiencing a large amount of new construction starts.3) Economic advisers are warning us that current trends are not sustainable, and we should heed the advice. When interest rates go up, affordability goes down. Where does that leave home prices? In the short-term, demand from foreign investors paying cash may continue to push pricing up. Those who rely on buyer financing will either rent, or adjust their real estate goals and buy “less” home than planned. In summary, we are expecting a housing shortage in 2016 and 2017. Contact your MSIR real estate professional to determine your optimal real estate goals and future, or for a customized, in-depth analysis on your area of interest. This is a call to action — the time to act is NOW!
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ELECTION YEAR, 2016WILL WE EXPERIENCE A REPEAT OF 2000 AND 2008?
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THE MARKET TRENDSAVERAGES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTES
CONTENTSQ4 2015 MARKET REPORT
4 Woodinville Report
5 Redmond Report
6 Sammamish Report
7 Bellevue Report
8 Bothell Report
9 Kirkland Report
10 Duvall Report
11 Carnation Report
12 Snoqualmie Report
13 North Bend Report
14 Issaquah Report
15 Fall City Report
16 Kenmore Report
17 Lake Forest Park
18 Mercer Island Report
19 Seattle Report
20 Maple Valley Report
21 Kent Report
22 Renton Report
23 Snohomish Report
This report focuses on single family homes in the cities where we conduct most business. While we’re a global brokerage, we mainly work on the Eastside of the Puget Sound region, Olympia to Bellingham. Our numbers only reflect the averages of the communities featured in this report but the trends still accurately reflect county-wide trends.
TOTAL $ VOLUME AND # OF SALESThe Total Dollar Volume increased an average of 22% in 2015 over 2014, from $16.7 billion to $19.6 billion. The Number of Sales increased 13%, from 33,918 in 2014 to 36,958 in 2015. These are the metrics we use to analzye the long-term trends in each market segment because they best summarize the general market activity over long periods of time.
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTThe Price Per Square Foot ($/SqFt) increased 4% from 2014 to 2015, from $204 to $218. This metric helps identify trends in market segments when large numbers of transactions are considered together over a period of time, and also is useful when comparing two properties on an apples-to-apples basis. In this case, it helps us understand that properties in this region are increasing in value on a square-foot-basis, rather than growing in size.
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKETThe Average Days on Market (DOM) decreased 11% from 2014 to 2015, from 67 to 59 days. DOM is a good measure of Liquidity in a real estate market. Liquidity determines how quickly an asset can be sold and usually increases in parallel with price transparency and fungible assets. In liquid markets, fewer days are needed to sell a property. In the Greater Seattle Region, homes are selling in the blink of an eye, making it a highly liquid market. Seattle boasts the second lowest DOM in the U.S.
CURRENT INVENTORY IN UNITSWith a surge of buyers and little increase in residential development, there is a shortage of inventory. The inventory of our market segments decreased 24%, from 4,710 units to 3,082 units. With decreased inventory and increased demand, it doesn’t look like the scramble for homes will let up in the near future.
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WOODINVILLE 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 524 579 11%
Total Dollar Volume $317,332,000 $382,480,000 21%
Average Sale Price $605,600 $660,600 9%
Average Days on Market 46 44 -4%
Sold / List Price % 99% 99.5% 0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot $223 $240 8%
Months of Inventory 2.2 1.5 -32%
Current Inventory in Units 75 48 -36%
WOODINVILLE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME Sold for $1,149,000
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10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF WOODINVILLE HOMES
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REDMOND 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,115 1,175 5%
Total Dollar Volume $747,800,000 $828,458,000 11%
Average Sale Price $670,700 $705,100 5%
Average Days on Market 45 35 -22%
Sold / List Price % 99.7% 100.5% 0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot $255 $273 6.8%
Months of Inventory 2 1.3 -35%
Current Inventory in Units 108 60 -44%
REDMOND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
ENGLISH HILL ESTATE Sold for $910,000
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10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF REDMOND HOMES
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SAMMAMISH 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 978 1,014 4%
Total Dollar Volume $744,440,000 $819,524,000 10%
Average Sale Price $761,200 $808,200 6%
Average Days on Market 42 40 -5%
Sold / List Price % 99.6% 99.9% 0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $253 $264 5%
Months of Inventory 1.8 1.3 -28%
Current Inventory in Units 91 48 -47%
SAMMAMISH REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TIMELESS ELEGANCE ON 4 ACRES Sold for $1,385,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SAMMAMISH HOMES
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BELLEVUE 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,404 1,453 4%
Total Dollar Volume $1,249,050,000 $1,440,659,000 15%
Average Sale Price $889,600 $991,500 12%
Average Days on Market 34 28 -18%
Sold / List Price % 99.9% 100.1% 0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot $313 $355 14%
Months of Inventory 1.5 1.2 -20%
Current Inventory in Units 104 93 -11%
BELLEVUE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CUSTOM CONTEMPORARY Sold for $1,150,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BELLEVUE HOMES
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BOTHELL 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,504 1,721 14%
Total Dollar Volume $692,297,000 $838,230,000 21%
Average Sale Price $460,300 $487,100 6%
Average Days on Market 43 46 7%
Sold / List Price % 99.8% 100.3% 0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot $195 $209 7%
Months of Inventory 2.3 1.6 -30%
Current Inventory in Units 256 137 -47%
BOTHELL REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE CUSTOM HOME Sold for $810,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BOTHELL HOMES
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KIRKLAND 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,120 1,160 4%
Total Dollar Volume $787,089,000 $872,615,000 11%
Average Sale Price $702,800 $752,300 7%
Average Days on Market 44 33 -25%
Sold / List Price % 98.8% 99.9% 1.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $294 $319 9%
Months of Inventory 2 1.5 -25%
Current Inventory in Units 95 87 -8.4%
KIRKLAND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPECTACULAR WATERFRONT HOME Sold for $2,030,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KIRKLAND HOMES
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DUVALL 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 184 235 28%
Total Dollar Volume $77,255,000 $109,856,000 42%
Average Sale Price $419,900 $467,500 11%
Average Days on Market 38 42 11%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 99.6% 0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $188 $203 8%
Months of Inventory 2.1 1.6 -24%
Current Inventory in Units 29 26 -10%
DUVALL REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING PRIVATE HOME Sold for $775,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF DUVALL HOMES
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CARNATION 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 127 121 -5%
Total Dollar Volume $62,373,000 $62,870,000 0.80%
Average Sale Price $491,100 $519,600 5.8%
Average Days on Market 94 80 -15%
Sold / List Price % 99.1% 98.1% -1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $204 $212 4%
Months of Inventory 3.1 2.6 -16%
Current Inventory in Units 25 22 -12%
CARNATION REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
RESERVE AT LAKE JOY ESTATE Sold for $799,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF CARNATION HOMES
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SNOQUALMIE 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 407 433 6%
Total Dollar Volume $216,160,000 $237,310,000 10%
Average Sale Price $531,100 $548,100 3%
Average Days on Market 55 34 -38%
Sold / List Price % 99.4% 100.4% 1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $201 $212 6%
Months of Inventory 1.9 0.7 -63%
Current Inventory in Units 50 4 -92%
SNOQUALMIE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE WOODED GETAWAY Sold for $579,500
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOQUALMIE HOMES
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NORTH BEND 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 293 292 -0.3%
Total Dollar Volume $123,634,000 $141,937,000 15%
Average Sale Price $422,000 $486,100 15%
Average Days on Market 65 55 -15%
Sold / List Price % 98.6% 99.5% 10%
Average Price Per Square Foot $194 $219 13%
Months of Inventory 2.7 2 -26%
Current Inventory in Units 44 40 -9%
NORTH BEND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
MOUNT SI VIEW HOME Sold for $584,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF NORTH BEND HOMES
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ISSAQUAH 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 805 768 -5%
Total Dollar Volume $498,885,000 $518,926,000 4%
Average Sale Price $619,700 $675,700 9%
Average Days on Market 31 33 7%
Sold / List Price % 100% 100.3% 0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $245 $267 9%
Months of Inventory 1.6 1.3 -19%
Current Inventory in Units 80 49 -39%
ISSAQUAH REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT VIEW HOME Sold for $450,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF ISSAQUAH HOMES
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FALL CITY 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 68 72 6%
Total Dollar Volume $41,717,000 $45,621,000 9%
Average Sale Price $613,500 $633,600 3%
Average Days on Market 104 74 -29%
Sold / List Price % 97.3% 96.2% -1.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $220 $242 10%
Months of Inventory 4.1 2.9 -29%
Current Inventory in Units 20 10 -50%
FALL CITY REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRADITIONAL HOME ON ACREAGE Sold for $774,850
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF FALL CITY HOMES
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KENMORE 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 285 402 41%
Total Dollar Volume $135,549,000 $221,557,000 64%
Average Sale Price $475,600 $551,100 16%
Average Days on Market 41 41 0%
Sold / List Price % 99.5% 99.9% 0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $206 $225 9%
Months of Inventory 2.4 1.8 -25%
Current Inventory in Units 55 32 -42%
KENMORE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT HOME IN QUIET LOCATION Sold for $389,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENMORE HOMES
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LAKE FOREST PARK 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 188 210 12%
Total Dollar Volume $101,736,000 $130,402,000 28%
Average Sale Price $541,100 $621,000 15%
Average Days on Market 43 32 -26%
Sold / List Price % 99% 99.1% 0.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot $218 $248 14%
Months of Inventory 2.1 1.2 -43%
Current Inventory in Units 25 12 -52%
LAKE FOREST PARK REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPACIOUS HOME ON LARGE LOT Listed for $1.3 million
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF LAKE FOREST PARK HOMES
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MERCER ISLAND 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 338 328 -3%
Total Dollar Volume $472,287,000 $498,650,000 6%
Average Sale Price $1,397,300 $1,520,300 9%
Average Days on Market 67 46 -31%
Sold / List Price % 97.3% 98% 0.7%
Average Price Per Square Foot $414 $448 8%
Months of Inventory 2.6 1.8 -31%
Current Inventory in Units 41 26 -37%
MERCER ISLAND REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRANQUIL CONTEMPORARY HOME Sold for $975,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MERCER ISLAND HOMES
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SEATTLE 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 7,887 8,162 4%
Total Dollar Volume $4,455,072,000 $5,109,680,000 15%
Average Sale Price $564,900 $626,000 11%
Average Days on Market 34 25 -27%
Sold / List Price % 100.6% 102.6% 2%
Average Price Per Square Foot $278 $310 12%
Months of Inventory 1.4 0.9 -36%
Current Inventory in Units 627 361 -42%
SEATTLE REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SEATTLE LUXURY PENTHOUSE Listed for $1,200,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SEATTLE HOMES
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MAPLE VALLEY 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 690 718 4%
Total Dollar Volume $252,386,000 $278,609,000 10%
Average Sale Price $365,800 $388,000 6%
Average Days on Market 41 37 -10%
Sold / List Price % 99.2% 99.5% 0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $161 $177 10%
Months of Inventory 1.9 1.3 -32%
Current Inventory in Units 84 48 -43%
MAPLE VALLEY REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EXTRAORDINARY HOME ON PRIVATE LOT Sold for $500,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MAPLE VALLEY HOMES
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KENT 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,166 1,397 20%
Total Dollar Volume $346,139,000 $458,515,000 33%
Average Sale Price $296,900 $328,200 11%
Average Days on Market 56 48 -14%
Sold / List Price % 99.3% 100% 0.7%
Average Price Per Square Foot $143 $156 9%
Months of Inventory 2.7 1.6 -41%
Current Inventory in Units 238 115 -52%
KENT REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRANQUIL CONTEMPORARY HOME Sold for $459,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENT HOMES
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RENTON 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 1,629 1,891 16%
Total Dollar Volume $642,213,000 $780,158,000 22%
Average Sale Price $394,200 $412,600 5%
Average Days on Market 47 41 -13%
Sold / List Price % 99.6% 99.9% 0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot $179 $189 6%
Months of Inventory 2.2 1.5 -32%
Current Inventory in Units 246 155 -37%
RENTON REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME ON ACREAGE Listed for $1,090,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF RENTON HOMES
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SNOHOMISH 2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales 904 1,011 12%
Total Dollar Volume $366,286,000 $451,938,000 23%
Average Sale Price $405,200 $447,000 10%
Average Days on Market 64 49 -23%
Sold / List Price % 99.8% 99.2% 0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot $171 $185 8%
Months of Inventory 2.9 2.5 -14%
Current Inventory in Units 180 165 -8%
SNOHOMISH REPORTSINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BEAUTIFUL TRADITIONAL HOME Sold for $910,000
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOHOMISH HOMES
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