anchoring biases, group think and other nuisances

https://www.flickr.com/photos/bachand/1086041678/

Anchoring biases, group think and other nuisances… John Clapham

Agile methods encourage creativity through collaboration - but those ideas, and our responses to others, are filtered through our own perceptions. Most worrisome are the kind of perceptions that we've unknowingly built up and curated over many years, until we are barely aware of them.Working in groups can improve things, and we've learnt to value the wisdom of crowds. But groupthink creeps in with alarming ease, depriving the team of diversity and breadth of experience.

John Clapham@JohnC_Bristol

Cotelic

www.cotelic.uk

Anchoring biases, group think and other nuisances, practical methods to outsmart your team


Cotelic

www.cotelic.uk

Anchoring biases, group think and other nuisances, practical methods to outsmart your team

(and possibly yourself)

- Independent Agile Coach

- Coach, Trainer, Consultant

- Agile Polygot

- DevOps Pundit

- UX Enthusiast

- Reformed Conference Addict

- Lego Fanatic

- Bristol Dweller

? Got bias?

Blind Spot Bias“The tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people...”

Blind Spot Bias“The tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people, or to be able to identify more cognitive biases in others than in oneself.”

? How many phone numbers?

The Asch Conformity Experiment

https://explorable.com/asch-experiment

https://www.flickr.com/photos/93243105@N03/8477734222/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/nixit/401710352

Raise awareness of biasesUnderstand how biases

occurSee how biases affect our

workTechniques to reduce bias

influence×Cause doubt in your every

decision×Distrust conference

speakers×Never make another

purchase

Expected Outcomes…

? Why have biases?

The need for speed…

Too much data…

https://www.flickr.com/photos/natspressoffice/13085089605/

The search for meaning

https://www.flickr.com/photos/bachand/1086041678/

Storage is expensive

? What do you see?

? Look again ?

? What do you see?

Our biases are like the first thing we spot in the picture, it takes conscious effort to interpret the image differently.

Bias Spottinghttps://www.flickr.com/photos/andrewgustar/12655752573

Illusion of Control“The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events”

Next in line effect“That a person in a group has diminished recall for the words of others who spoke immediately before or after this person”

1. Set the stage2. Gather data3. Generate Insights4. Decide what to do5. Closing

The Perfect Retrospective…

1. Influence2. Gather data3. Generate Insights4. Decide what to do5. Closing


1. Influence2. Gather opinions and judgements3. Generate Insights4. Decide what to do5. Closing


1. Influence2. Gather opinions and judgements3. Generate assumptions4. Decide what to do5. Closing


1. Influence2. Gather opinions and judgements3. Generate assumptions4. Decide what to do5. Continue as you were

https://gerardchiva.com/2015/12/08/breaking-free-from-bias/


I believe in agileprinciples…

I believe in agileprinciples… I believe people

need close supervision



Cognitive Dissonance“As a causer of bias.”



What can I do?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/peapodlabs/6963930514/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/fotosdepepe/2924364175/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmennerich/3837506724/https://www.flickr.com/photos/oatsy40/14291889080/


Buridan’s Ass

Humour Effect“That humorous items are more easily remembered than non-humorous ones.”

Ikea Effect“The tendency for people to place a disproportionately high value on objects that they partially assembled themselves, regardless of the quality of the end result.”

Pro-innovation Bias“The tendency to have an excessive optimism towards an invention or innovation's usefulness throughout society, while often failing to identify its limitations and weaknesses.”

Decoy Effect“Preferences for either option A or B changes in favour of option B when option C is presented”

Social Comparison Bias“The tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don't compete with one's own particular strengths.”

Homosocial Reproduction“The tendency of people to select incumbents who are socially similar to themselves.”

“Minorities often rely more on education and experience, to ‘break into’ higher levels of power, often having to ‘out-credential’ counterparts”

Elliott, James R. and Ryan A. Smith. Race, Gender, and Workplace Power. American Sociological Review, Vol. 69, No. 3. (Jun., 2004)

Experimentation Bias“The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations…”

Experimentation Bias“The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations…and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.”

Inside biaseshttps://www.flickr.com/photos/killbox/6191330780

SlowFast

https://www.flickr.com/photos/bradjward/8599541488/

Acts quicklyLoves StoriesImpulsiveEffortlessDoesn’t do mathsEmotionalError proneCreative

Acts slowlyLoves factsReflectiveTiringDoes mathsAnalyticalReliable (ish)Logical

Work as a teamBack each other up

Strengths in different contextsProtect each other

? With me?

“Mind-wandering may enhance creativity by increasing the likelihood of non-conscious associative processing.”

- Jonathan Smallwood

Aleifs:• Affective• Associative• Automatic• Arrational

https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/getting-into-the-mobile-app-user-s-mind-user-research-for-mobile-applications

Aliefs are problematic for user research, reported behaviour does not match actual behavior.

Working with biaseshttps://www.flickr.com/photos/29750062@N06/3904317061/

Monitor, Sense, Respond

Why? Why? Why?, Why?, Why?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/raffaxxi/9316050986/

The Six Thinking Hats

“May well be the most important change in human thinking for the last 2300 years.”

I expect you’ve heard of it?

Bizarreness Effect“Bizarre material is better remembered than common material.”

Parallel Thinking“Parallel thinking: each thinker puts forward his or her thoughts in parallel with the thoughts of others.“

Why ‘put on’ a hat?- Maximise sensitivity - allows us to think of one

thing at a time.- Practice unfamiliar modes of thinking.- Ritual engages specific thinking modes.

“Stop being such a pessimist”vs

“Black hat thinking is later”



“Stop being yourself!”



Stop being yourself!

“We’ll have timefor those thoughts

later”

Blue Hat- Thinking about thinking- Lays out purpose, facilitates- Sets strategy

White Hat- Facts and figures- Neutral, objective- It is not your opinion

Green Hat- The creative hat- New Ideas and alternative concepts- Identify a void, the need for an idea.

Yellow Hat- Positive and constructive- Generative, it’s about possibilities- Concrete proposals

Red Hat- Emotions and feelings- Intuition, perception- Don’t need to justify, it’s your own emotions.

Black Hat- Cautious, careful- Critical thinking- Points must stand up, it’s not emotional.

CoachingConversations…

Reflectionshttps://www.flickr.com/photos/wing-mui/17236656

Cognitive biases help and hinder us, it’s important to know if they are working for, or against us.

The need for speed

The search for meaning

Data inundation

Storage is expensive

?Categories: https://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18

An understanding of biases in ourselves and others improves collaboration and quality of decisions.

We think in dual modes, which complement each other, neither is better than the other.

Agile methods, conducted correctly, often aim to reduce or surface biases.

The Six Thinking Hats system comprises:

Thinking maps Parallel Thinking Novel Coordination

The Six Thinking Hats method helps groups reach quality decisions, faster.

Elements may be used in routine discussion and coaching conversations.

“We don’t see things as they are, we see them as we are.”

- Anaïs Nin


Cotelic

www.cotelic.co.uk

Thanks!

Selected References

Unintentional Bias is Forensic Investigationhttp://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PB-0015#fullreport

Aleif & Belief (Gendler)http://www.pgrim.org/philosophersannual/pa28articles/gendleraliefbelief.pdf

Psychotic-like cognitive biases in borderline personality disorder.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21411041

Bias Categorisationshttps://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18

Buridan’s Asshttp://spirospero.net/Essay8.html

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PB-0015#fullreport

http://www.pgrim.org/philosophersannual/pa28articles/gendleraliefbelief.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21411041

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21411041

https://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18

http://spirospero.net/Essay8.html

http://spirospero.net/Essay8.html

anchoring biases, group think and other nuisances

Leadership & Management