anatomy of a trade. pitch of the week amd volatility – calendar spread
TRANSCRIPT
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Anatomy of a Trade
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Pitch of the WeekAMD Volatility – Calendar Spread
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What is a trade4 Key Steps
Sourcing / Research Expression Hedging Monitoring /
Exit
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Sourcing
• Equity / Credit– Screening Situation
tracking
• Options– Keep track of flow– Watch the VIX
• Commodities– Follow news– Watch Spreads
Find situations where you can buy or sell into an irrational market
Idea sourcing is part of life, you observe something, and you try to
strategize an entry
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SourcingWhere to look
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Research
• History• Channel checks• Data• Minimize the input of opinions• Identify the key drivers to every trade
– E.g. What are the drivers for gold-silver spread?
90% of your time and 110% of your effort
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Research
• Common, but poor research usually entails:– Forming an opinion before gathering
sufficient facts– Marrying the idea– Forcing an opinion– Unsound understanding of various
leverage• E.g. Call options on Ford
What not to do
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Expression
• Key rule: Don’t have a view just to have a view
• If you have done your research, dare to be different
• What is the cheapest way to get exposure to your opinion?– How many ways can you go long a country?– What about a company?– What if you know for a fact this winter will be
extremely cold?
Making the Trade
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Hedges
• A fence or boundary formed by closely growing bushes or shrubs.– A hedge is an investment position intended to
offset potential losses/gains that may be incurred by a companion investment.
– Isolate your thesis/expression– Eliminate noises
• E.g. Long Brent / Short Crude?
Limit Risk or Blow up your trade?
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Timing Matters
• The spread matters, liquidity depends on time of the day.– Use limit orders.
• Finding good hedges is as hard as finding good trades itself.– I don’t want Beta, do I short S&P or do I short
ETF?
• Positioning matter.– e.g. different specs of future represents different
leverages.
Unless you are as good as Thomas.
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Exiting
• Don’t get greedy. – Take profit when your target is hit and
understand anything beyond this point is irrelevant to you.
• Don’t be scared.– Don’t exit early.
• Don’t be stubborn.– Get out when you are bleeding and admit that you
are wrong.
• Don’t be indecisive. – Double Down!!! Keeps going down? Triple Down.
Take profit / Stop loss.