analyzing the usdcad forex pair
TRANSCRIPT
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USDCAD FOREX UPDATE http://www.netpicks.com/forex-update-usdcad/
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I mentioned quite a bit of information about the Forex pair USDCAD recently
and I want to return to what I had talked about and update where we are
now on the trading chart.
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The USD has been quite strong against the CAD and has presented some
magnificent long trade position profits. There has been some profit taking
opportunities as well as ways to get involved in the move.
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This chart is from the previous recap and is simply where we left off and shows a scale out on momentum as
well as a zone that may provide resistance.
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I am going to quote from the original walk through and compare what has
occurred.
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"Is it possible that price will just ram through the resistance?
It certainly is but so is price stalling for time and then slamming back down.
Often times, being stuck in a range not only holds up capital but can also exhaust mental capital as well."
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What happened is almost exactly what I had written earlier and in the end,
another entry into the trend presented itself.
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CURRENT CHART
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Breaking down this chart.
1. Is the low of the resistance zone that set up back in 2009
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2. This is the high of the resistance zone and it's in between these two
areas that you can map out a plan for your next trade.
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3. This candles becomes a minor swing point and becomes the low prior
to the move up into #2.
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4. I've mentioned these before and these upthrusts can be classified as
failure tests of highs and present some shorting opportunities.
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5. After price slams back down, this spring breaks the previous low and is
immediately bought up and broke resistance. Buying opportunity in a range in the context of an uptrend.
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I mentioned as well that there was an opportunity to trade lower on the
chart where the bull flag is sitting. The problem was there was not a ton of room to the top of that swing and it
was skipped.
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BULL FLAG
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"This also can be a buying opportunity in a retracement except price structure
in terms of what was potential resistance, is just above. It works, but in my books it was a low probability
trade."
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Looking again at number 5, there is plenty of room for the trade to run if you are tuned into that spring that
occurred that offered a trading entry.
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SPRING INTO UPTREND
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As those that shorted on the up thrust at #4 bail out, price is able to rocket upwards and shatter a high that held
since 2009.
It looks pretty simple, doesn't it?
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Make it tempting to have traders short after a long run up. Trap them and force them to exit. Use their exits to help propel price through a long held resistance level.
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What Does The Future Hold?
Anything can happen but it doesn't
hurt to have some ideas of what may occur and plan your next course of
action.
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1. Price may retrace to test the high of the former resistance zone. 2. Price may fail back inside the zone although this does not negate the breakout. 3. Price may continue up into the next roadblock set back in 2004
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This chart is from 2004 and shows the next chunk of price structure that we
will have to work through to push higher.
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THE PRESENT MEETS THE PAST
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Red line is where current price currently sits. Blue dotted is the former resistance zone.
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Red circle is a short term range that broke down and price has returned. Yellow highlight is a pivot that was a retrace to the open of the momentum red.
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We are not in a clear cut area if we just focus on the technical aspects of this
chart. For me, sitting on USDCAD longs, I will watch how price reacts to this area and would love to see it play
out
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as the arrows show. Breaking above this area, the next area that I'd be
interested in seeing is between 1.36-1.38.
Will it play out that way I have laid it out? Maybe not but the key is being
prepared and not just reacting to what price does.
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This type of Forex update or for any other market is something that I think will benefit most traders. Keeping a journal of your trades and ideas and then referring back to them is a great way to see how you have improved in
your trade analysis.
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It also ensures that you are aware of the possibilities that may occur and
are ready to take advantage of whatever comes your way. Being
prepared is the hallmark of a professional. Be one.
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