analytics in practice sunz 2012
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Analytics in practice Driving your business and saving you money
Todd Nicholson
February 2012
Three examples of analytics in
practice
Domestic Tourism Segmentation
(Ministry of Tourism)
Serious Injury Model
(ACC)
Claim Duration Model
(ACC)
Example 1: Domestic Tourism
Segmentation Want to understand targetable groups within the NZ
tourism market
Want to profile each segment so we know:
- who they are
- what they want
- how to reach them
Want to ensure each segment can be targeted
Key learning: Always keep your
target audience in mind
Key learning: Always keep your
target audience in mind Ensured all segments were marketable by segmenting on:
- interests
- age
- ideal holiday type
- inhibitors of travel
This gets us away from segmenting on holiday frequency and directs us towards holiday type.
Key learning: Prettiness matters
Key learning: Prettiness matters
Key learning: Prettiness matters
Example 2: ACC serious Injury
Model ACC has just over 5000 seriously injured clients. For these
clients ACC provides:
- Carers to help with day-to-day living
- Weekly compensation and medical expenses
- Capital items
The outstanding claims liability is currently $9.3 billion.
However, increasing consistency is one of the ways growth in expenses has been successfully dampened.
Analytical models can give you
transparency and consistency
Nu
mb
er
of
care
ho
urs
per
week
Functional Independence Measure
Key Learning: Milk your results
Key Learning: Milk your results
When dealing with people there will
always be variation. So lets measure it!
Nu
mb
er
of
care
ho
urs
pe
r w
eek
Functional Independence Measure
National serious injury
service - Evidence based needs assessment
- $820 million reduction in outstanding claims liability (due to the hard work of the serious injury team – this is simply a tool they’ve commissioned to help them).
- Minimal bad publicity or media comment involving clients with a disability
- No change in the usual, small number of legal challenges to decisions
- An increase in the number of clients achieving their self directed outcomes
Example 3: Claim duration
analysis (ACC) • ACC has over 50,000 weekly compensation claims every
year
• They cost almost $1 billion a year
Aim of the analysis: to accurately predict claims duration
based on past experience
Ultimate Goal: to make better decisions about services
required and achieve shorter claim durations
International tools – Medical
Disability Advisor (MDA)
Risk Factor - Age
Key learning: Know the power of
your data!
Key learning: Know the power of
your data!
• ACC’s data is not perfect. For example, losing your job is a key risk factor but isn’t recorded in ACC data.
• But it is still the best dataset available anywhere in the world for modelling injury recovery
– Longevity
– Universal coverage
– No coming or going
Know the power of your data!
There is nothing magic in our analysis. Its just
• Survival analysis
• Logistic regression
• Generalized Linear Modelling (GLM)
• Text mining (yes, even free text data can be a
gold mine)
The real difficulty is dealing with such a large
amount of data
Milk your results (again!)
Two parts of the analysis have been
implemented for frontline day-to-day use
• They allow branches to accurately identify
which claims will require weekly
compensation
• Staff can take a more proactive approach
• Staff can ensure high risk clients receive
the correct services right from the start
Milk your results
• Predict which claims are likely to last for a
long time and WHY
• Draws case managers’ attention to
potential risks
• Allows accurate allocation of resources –
identifying clients who need no services is
as important as those who need a lot.
Milk your results
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Pro
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Weekly compensation days
High Risk Claim
Low Risk Claim
So remember
• Always keep your audience at the front of
your mind
• Prettiness is important
• Milk your results
• Models can give you consistency and
transparency
• Don’t underestimate the power of your
data