analytics: a model for prediction
DESCRIPTION
Presenters: Whitney Cunningham Jo Pang Robert Talbott Alex Dunagan. Analytics: a Model for prediction. St. Louis City Homicides. Overview. Qualitative Analysis Initial Quantitative Analysis Our Model Results Challenges Conclusion. Qualitative Data. Quantitative Data. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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ANALYTICS: A MODEL FOR
PREDICTIONPresenters:
Whitney CunninghamJo Pang
Robert TalbottAlex Dunagan
St. Louis City Homicides
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OVERVIEW Qualitative Analysis Initial Quantitative Analysis Our Model Results Challenges Conclusion
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QUALITATIVE DATA
Interview with Residents
Cop Part 1
Cop Part 2
Cop Part 3
Cop Part 4
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QUANTITATIVE DATA Explored topics presented in our
qualitative analysis Uniform Crime Report: 1979-2007
AgeRaceWeapon UsedYearMonthsRelation between Offender and Victim
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UCR: HOMICIDES BY AGE IN ST. LOUIS
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UCR: HOMICIDES BY RACE IN ST. LOUIS
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UCR: HOMICIDES BY WEAPON IN ST. LOUIS
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UCR: HOMICIDES BY TIME IN ST. LOUIS
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UCR: HOMICIDES BY RELATIONSHIP IN ST. LOUIS
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CHALLENGES Not divided by neighborhood
Neighborhoods do not all report this data
Missing data in database
No data from 2007-2010
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THE MODEL
Our model will be linked here.
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THE MODELDate Estimated Total
HomicidesActual Total Homicides
Correlation between Estimated and Actual
March, 2010 36 28 0.865
April, 2010 49 42 0.881
May, 2010 68 52 .882
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MARCH 2011
#1: Wells/Goodfellow
#2: Dutchtown
#2: Kingsway West
4
2
2
2
#2: Mark Twain
#2: Mark Twain/I-70 Industrial
2
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THE RESULTS
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4
2#3: Dutchtown
#1: Wells/Goodfellow
3#2: O’Fallon
#3: Kingsway West
2
#3: Mark Twain
2
APRIL 2011
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THE RESULTS
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3 #2: Jeff Vandelou 3
#2: Fairground
MAY 2011
#1: Wells/Goodfellow 4
4
#1: O’Fallon
3#2: Dutchtown
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THE RESULTS
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CHALLENGES TO OUR MODEL
• Demographics
• Categorization
• Time Resources
• Material Validity
• Data Time Frames
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CONCLUSION: OUR PROCESS
Qualitative analysis to
better understand the
situation
Demographic analysis to find
significant trends
Historical analysis for
more accurate prediction
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CONCLUSION: OUR RECOMMENDATION
Long-term NeedsContinuously analyze demographics and their impact on crime, based on each
neighborhood
Intermediate Focus
Ensure that data taken by FBI on homicides are complete and neighborhoods are listed.
Devote preventative resources to crime-susceptible areas
Immediate Resources
Push most resources on neighborhoods with most past homicides, by month
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QUESTIONS?
Please feel free to comment or on question anything.