analyst presentation - eqt investor center...
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst Presentation
March 2016
2
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT)
EQT Plaza
625 Liberty Avenue, Suite 1700
Pittsburgh, PA 15222
Pat Kane - Chief Investor Relations Officer
(412) 553-7833
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible
reserves that a company anticipates as of a given date to be economically and legally producible and deliverable by application of development projects to known
accumulations. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as “EUR” (estimated ultimate recovery) and total resource potential, that the SEC's rules strictly
prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. We caution you that the SEC views such estimates as inherently unreliable and these estimates may be
misleading to investors unless the investor is an expert in the natural gas industry. We also note that the SEC strictly prohibits us from aggregating proved,
probable and possible (3P) reserves in filings with the SEC due to the different levels of certainty associated with each reserve category.
Disclosures in this presentation contain certain forward-looking statements. Statements that do not relate strictly to historical or current facts are forward-looking.
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward-looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include the expectations of plans, strategies,
objectives and growth and anticipated financial and operational performance of the Company and its subsidiaries, including guidance regarding the Company’s
strategy to develop its reserves; drilling plans and programs (including the number, type, depth, lateral length and location of wells to be drilled); projected natural
gas prices, liquids price uplift, basis, recoveries and average differential; projected market mix; total resource potential, reserves, EUR, expected rates and
pressures, and expected decline curve; projected Company and third party production sales volume and growth rates (including liquids sales volume and growth
rates); internal rate of return (IRR), compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and expected after-tax returns per well; technology (including drilling and completion
techniques); projected finding and development costs, operating costs, unit costs, well costs, and midstream revenue deductions; projected gathering and
transmission volume and growth rates; the Company’s access to, and timing of, capacity on pipelines; project firm pipeline capacity and sales; infrastructure
programs (including the timing, cost and capacity of expected gathering and transmission expansion projects); the timing, cost, capacity and expected
interconnects with facilities and pipelines of the Ohio Valley Connector and Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) projects; the ultimate terms, partners, and structure of
the MVP joint venture; projected EBITDA; acquisitions, monetization transactions, including midstream asset sales (dropdowns) to EQT Midstream Partners, LP
(EQM) and other asset sales, joint ventures or other transactions involving the Company’s assets; the projected cash flows resulting from the Company’s limited
partner interests in EQT GP Holdings, LP (EQGP); the amount and timing of any repurchases under the Company’s share repurchase authorization; projected
capital expenditures; liquidity and financing requirements, including funding sources and availability; changes in the Company’s or EQM’s credit ratings; projected
operating revenue, cash flows and cash-on-hand; potential future impairments of the Company’s assets; hedging strategy; the effects of government regulation and
litigation; dividend and distribution amounts and rates; and tax position. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results to differ materially from projected results. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual
results. The Company has based these forward-looking statements on current expectations and assumptions about future events. While the Company considers
these expectations and assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks and
uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and beyond the Company’s control. The risks and uncertainties that may affect the operations, performance and
results of the Company’s business and forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those set forth under Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” of the Company’s
Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as filed with the SEC and as updated by any subsequent Form 10-Qs. Any forward-looking statement speaks
only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company does not intend to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of
new information, future events or otherwise.
Information in this presentation regarding EQGP and its subsidiaries, including EQM, is derived from publicly available information published by EQGP and EQM.
EQT Cautionary Statements
3
The Company uses Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA as a financial measure in this presentation. Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA is defined as the Company’s EQT Midstream business segment’s operating income (loss) plus depreciation and amortization expense less gains on dispositions. Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA also excludes the Company’s EQT Midstream business segment’s results associated with the Big Sandy Pipeline and Langley processing facility. Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA is not a financial measure calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA is a non-GAAP supplemental financial measure that Company management and external users of the Company’s financial statements, such as industry analysts, investors, lenders and rating agencies, use to assess: (i) the Company’s performance versus prior periods; (ii) the Company’s operating performance as compared to other companies in its industry; (iii) the ability of the Company’s assets to generate sufficient cash flow to make distributions to its investors; (iv) the Company’s ability to incur and service debt and fund capital expenditures; and (v) the viability of acquisitions and other capital expenditure projects and the returns on investment of various investment opportunities.
The Company believes that the presentation of Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA in this presentation provides useful information in assessing the Company’s financial condition and results of operations. Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to EQT Midstream operating income or any other measure of financial performance or liquidity presented in accordance with GAAP. Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA has important limitations as an analytical tool because it excludes some but not all items that affect operating income. Additionally, because Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA may be defined differently by other companies in the Company’s industry, the Company’s definition of Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA will most likely not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies, thereby diminishing the utility of the measure. Please see the Appendix for a reconciliation of Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA to EQT Midstream operating income, its most directly comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP.
The Company is unable to provide a reconciliation of projected EBITDA to projected operating income, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the unknown effect, timing and potential significance of certain income statement items.
Non-GAAP Measures
4
Extensive reserves of natural gas*
10.0 Tcfe proved; >16 years R/P
6.3 Tcfe proved developed
78 Tcfe total resource potential
Proven ability to profitably develop our reserves
Six consecutive years of >25% production growth
18% production sales volume growth in 2016
Industry leading cost structure
Extensive and growing midstream business
EQT owns 90% interest in EQT GP Holdings, LP (NYSE: EQGP)
EQGP owns:
28% limited partner interest; 1.8% general partner interest and all incentive
distribution rights of EQT Midstream Partners, LP
Strong liquidity position**
$1.6 billion cash (excluding EQM)
$1.5 billion undrawn, unsecured revolver
Key Investment Highlights
*As of 12/31/2015
**As of 02/29/2016
5
2015 Operating Income of $563.1 million
Leading Appalachian E&P Company
3.4 MM acres
9,100 pipeline miles
10.0 Tcfe proved reserves
As of 12/31/2015
6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Marcellus
Other
Marcellus Shale drilling driving growth
Production By Play
Pro
du
cti
on
MM
cf/
d
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Huron reserves included in “Other”
7
Proved Reserves
78 Tcfe Total Resource Potential
Tcfe
As of 12/31/2015
3.0 2.84.0
4.8
6.3
2.4 3.2
4.4
5.93.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Proved Developed Proved Undeveloped
8
Core
Development
Area
Marcellus Play
600,000 EQT acres
• 86% NRI / 80% HBP
7.8 Tcfe proved reserves
31 Tcfe total resource
potential
72 wells in 2016
9
Marcellus Core Development Area
Core
Development
Area
Near term development strategically focused on core
260,000 EQT acres
~2,840 locations
• 573 wells online*
72 wells in 2016:
• 51 PA wells
• 21 WV wells
• 7,000’ laterals
• $6.3 MM / well
• 14.5 Bcfe EUR / well
• 2,065 Mcfe EUR / ft. of lateral
• 118 acre spacing
*As of 12/31/2015
10
Core Marcellus IRR
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
$2.00 $2.50 $3.00
Wellhead After OpEx After Tax
PRICE ATAX IRR
$2.00 11%
$2.50 33%
$3.00 67%
Realized Price
11
BIG 190 (2015)
Wetzel County, WV
6,300’ lateral
Utica Play
400,000 EQT acres
~3,000 locations
2 wells online*
2 wells in progress
5-10 wells in 2016
13,000’ to 13,500’ deep
5,200’ laterals
25 Tcfe total resource
potential
$12.5 – $14.0 MM / well**
*As of 12/31/2015
**Target cost
2016 Utica Development
3 wells: Greene County, PA
2 wells: Wetzel County, WV
Scotts Run 591340
Greene County, PA
3,221’ treated interval
24 hr. IP: 72.9 MMcf
22.6 MMcf / 1000’
8,641 psi flowing casing pressure
0.95 pore pressure gradient
Pettit 593066 (2015)
Greene County, PA
5,222’ treated interval
Shipman 593894 (2016)
Greene County, PA
7,000’ lateral
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0 365 730 1095
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0 365 730 1095
Scotts Run Utica Well Update Cumulative Production, Pressure and Rate vs. Time
2.6 Bcf / 1,000’ recovered
by day 282
Flowing pressure meets
line pressure (500 psi) at
day 282 (mid-April)
EUR: 5.9 Bcf / 1,000’
EUR: 5.1 Bcf / 1,000’
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rod
ucti
on
(M
Mcf /
1,0
00’ Late
ral)
Casin
g F
low
Pre
ssu
re
(psig
)
25 psi/day
pressure
decline
30 MMcf/d
Years on Production
EUR: 5.9 Bcf / 1,000’
EUR: 5.1 Bcf / 1,000’
Daily
Flo
w R
ate
(M
Mcf/d
)
- 1 2 3
Years on Production
- 1 2 3
mid-July
2015
13
Scott’s Run – Utica Type Curves - 5,400’ lateral
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Da
ily P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Mc
f/d
)
Time in Months (First 100 Months Represented)
Utica 5.9 MMcf/ft
Utica 5.1 MMcf/ft
14
Transmission & Storage*
3.6 Bcf/d current capacity
47 Bcf gas storage capacity
Gathering*
2 Bcf/d capacity
Formed MLP in 2012 (NYSE: EQM)
EQT Corporation Midstream Overview – Consolidated
*As of 12/31/2015
**Excludes Big Sandy and Langley in 2011; see Non-GAAP Reconciliation in the appendix
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
EQT Midstream
EQT Midstream Partners, LP
Production Sales Volume (Bcfe)
EQT Corporation Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA**
EQT Production sales drive EQT
Midstream EBITDA growth
15
EQT Corporation Midstream Midstream Assets
Allegheny Valley
Connector
200-mile FERC pipeline
450 MMcf/d capacity
~$40 MM projected annual
EBITDA
Marcellus Gathering
Applegate
Longhorn
Terra
Tioga
Huron Gathering
Tioga
65 MMcf/d
Terra
80 MMcf/d
Longhorn
130 MMcf/d
Applegate
150 MMcf/d
Allegheny
Valley
Connector
16
EQT owns 90% LP interest of EQGP
EQGP owns in EQM*
28% limited partner interest
1.8% general partner interest
incentive distribution rights
EQT GP Holdings, LP (NYSE: EQGP)
*As of 12/31/2015
EQGP Price
per Unit
Value of EQGP Units
held by EQT ($MM)
Value per
EQT share
$22 $5,274 $35
$24 $5,753 $38
$26 $6,233 $41
$28 $6,712 $44
17
Transmission & Storage
3.1 Bcf/d current capacity
700 mile FERC-regulated
interstate pipeline
32 Bcf of gas storage capacity
Marcellus Gathering System
Jupiter Gathering System
PA dry gas
Northern West Virginia Gathering
System
Wet and dry gas
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE: EQM)
18
Ohio Valley Connector
37-mile FERC regulated pipeline to connect transmission in West Virginia to Clarington, OH
Year-end 2016 in-service
~1 Bcf/d capacity
650 BBtu/d contracted under firm 20-year term
Mountain Valley Pipeline
300-mile FERC-regulated pipeline to growing demand center in southeast US
Q4 2018 in-service
JV with NextEra Energy, ConEd, WGL Midstream, Vega Energy Partners, and RGC Resources
2 Bcf/d capacity commitments
20-year term
EQT Midstream Partners, LP Growth Projects
19
Safety – Our first priority
All accidents are preventable
Company goal = zero incidents
Committed to:
The environment
Our employees and contractors
The communities where we drill and work
EQT Foundation charitable giving of >$4 million / year
More than $20 million / year in state and local taxes
Corporate Citizenship
20
Extensive reserves of natural gas
Proven ability to profitably develop our reserves
Six consecutive years of >25% production growth
18% production sales volume growth in 2016
Extensive and growing midstream business
Strong liquidity position
Committed to maximize shareholder value by:
Accelerating the monetization of our vast reserves
Operating in a safe and environmentally responsible manner
Investment Summary
21
Appendix
22
Liquids Volume Growth and Marcellus Impact
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Mb
bls
Includes natural gas liquids and oil
Liquids Volume Growth
Pricing is as of 02/03/2016 and is the one-year forward
NYMEX and Mount Belvieu for Propane $0.36, Iso-Butane
$0.50, Normal Butane $0.49, and Pentanes $0.69.
Marcellus Liquids Price Impact
(1200 Btu Gas)
$2.38 $2.38
$0.48$0.10$0.22
$2.85$2.70
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
Not Processed Processed$
/Mc
f
NGLs (1.6 Gal/Mcf)
Btu Premium
NYMEX
23
Midstream Production
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
$B
$1.3
$1.6
$1.9 $1.8
Capital Investment Summary
Excludes acquisitions and EQT Midstream Partners, LP
$1.0
24
Type Curves - 5,400’ lateral Core Marcellus vs Scott’s Run – Utica
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Da
ily P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Mc
f/d
)
Time in Months (First 100 Months Represented)
Utica 5.9 MMcf/ft
Utica 5.1 MMcf/ft
Core Marcellus 2.1 MMcf/ft
25
Marcellus Play Core Type Curve - 5,400’ lateral
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Da
ily P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Mc
f/d
)
Time in Months(First 100 Months Represented)
26
Marcellus Capacity
Market Mix EQT Capacity & Firm Sales
2016E 2017E
TETCO M2 20-22% 12-14%
TETCO M3 35-37% 31-33%
TCO 8-10% 6-8%
Midwest 19-21% 30-32%
NYMEX 13-15% 15-17%
27
324 172 71
$3.59 $3.41
$3.16
$2.49
$2.79 $2.91
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2016 2017 2018
$ / M
cf
Bcf
Hedged Volume Average Hedge Price NYMEX Price
Risk Management
Hedge Position as of December 31, 2015
• The average price is based on a conversion rate of 1.05 MMBtu/Mcf
• Fixed price physical sales impact is included in recoveries on the EQT Corporation Price Reconciliation, and in the average differential guidance.
• For 2016 through 2018 the Company also has a natural gas sales agreement for approximately 35 Bcf per year that includes a NYMEX ceiling price of $4.88 per
Mcf. The Company also sold calendar 2016, 2017, and 2018, calls for approximately 11, 29, and 12 Bcf at strike prices of $3.65, $3.52, and $3.45 per Mcf,
respectively.
2016 2017 2018
NYMEX Price ($/Mcf) as of 2/2/2016 $2.41 $2.83 $2.93
NYMEX Swaps
Total Volume (Bcf) 280 156 71
Average Price per Mcf (NYMEX) $3.69 $3.44 $3.16
Fixed Price Physical Sales
Total Volume (Bcf) 44 9 -
Average Price per Mcf (NYMEX) $2.92 $3.10 $0.00
Collars
Total Volume (Bcf) - 7 -
Average Floor Price per Mcf (NYMEX) $0.00 $3.15 $0.00
Average Cap Price per Mcf (NYMEX) $0.00 $4.03 $0.00
28
($ MM, except net debt / capital) February 29, 2016
Short-term debt* $ 0
Long-term debt* 2,300
Cash and cash equivalents* (1,600)
Net debt (total debt minus cash)* $ 700 .
Total common stockholders' equity $ 5,078
12%Net debt / capital
Ample Financial Flexibility to Execute Business Plan
Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Fitch
Long-term debt Baa3 BBB BBB-
Outlook Stable Stable Stable
EQT Debt ratings
Manageable debt maturities*
* Excludes EQT Midstream Partners
Strong balance sheet
-
200
400
600
800
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
$M
M
0
708 700
11
774
0 10
0 0
115
0
29
Price Reconciliation
(a) NGLs and crude oil were converted to Mcfe at the rate of six Mcfe per barrel for all periods.
(b) The Company’s volume weighted NYMEX natural gas price (actual average NYMEX natural gas price ($/MMBtu) was $2.27 and $4.00 for the three months ended
December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively, and $2.66 and $4.41 for the years ended December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively).
(c) Recoveries represent differences in natural gas prices between the Appalachian Basin and the sales points of other markets reached by utilizing transportation capacity,
differences in natural gas prices between Appalachian Basin and fixed price sales contracts, term sales with fixed differentials to NYMEX and other marketing activity,
including the sale of unused pipeline capacity. Recoveries include approximately $0.22 and $0.21 per Mcf for the three months ended December 31, 2015 and 2014,
respectively, and $0.21 and $0.19 per Mcf for the years ended December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively, for the sale of unused pipeline capacity.
Three Months Ended December 31,
Year Ended December 31,
in thousands (unless noted) 2015 2014 2015 2014
LIQUIDS NGLs:
Sales volume (MMcfe) (a) 11,978 12,819 51,530 40,587 Sales volume (Mbbls) 1,996 2,135 8,588 6,764 Gross price ($/Bbl) $ 21.23 $ 32.16 $ 18.84 $ 41.94
Gross NGL sales $ 42,372 $ 68,712 $ 161,775 $ 283,728 Third-party processing (23,825) (18,857) (100,329) (64,313)
Net NGL sales $ 18,547 $ 49,855 $ 61,446 $ 219,415 Oil:
Sales volume (MMcfe) (a) 1,208 1,061 4,458 2,693 Sales volume (Mbbls) 201 177 743 449 Net price ($/Bbl) $ 32.45 $ 64.74 $ 38.70 $ 78.51
Net oil sales $ 6,531 $ 11,447 $ 28,752 $ 35,232
Net liquids sales $ 25,078 $ 61,302 $ 90,198 $ 254,647 NATURAL GAS Sales volume (MMcf) 141,351 122,779 547,094 432,980 NYMEX price ($/MMBtu) (b) $ 2.27 $ 4.01 $ 2.66 $ 4.38 Btu uplift $ 0.20 $ 0.39 $ 0.25 $ 0.38
Gross natural gas price ($/Mcf) $ 2.47 $ 4.40 $ 2.91 $ 4.76 Basis ($/Mcf) $ (0.96) $ (1.50) $ (1.18) $ (1.07)
Recoveries ($/Mcf) (c) 0.62 0.88 0.81 0.82 Cash settled basis swaps (not designated as hedges) ($/Mcf) 0.18 0.30 0.03 0.06
Average differential ($/Mcf) $ (0.16) $ (0.32) $ (0.34) $ (0.19)
Average adjusted price ($/Mcf) $ 2.31 $ 4.08 $ 2.57 $ 4.57 Cash settled derivatives (cash flow hedges) ($/Mcf) 0.36 0.10 0.47 (0.06) Cash settled derivatives (not designated as hedges) ($/Mcf) 0.55 0.04 0.28 0.02
Average adjusted price, including cash settled derivatives ($/Mcf) $ 3.22 $ 4.22 $ 3.32 $ 4.53
Net natural gas sales, including cash settled derivatives $ 455,252 $ 518,446 $ 1,810,897 $ 1,962,667
30
Price Reconciliation (continued)
Three Months Ended December 31,
Year Ended December 31,
in thousands (unless noted) 2015 2014 2015 2014
TOTAL PRODUCTION
Total net natural gas & liquids sales, including cash settled derivatives $ 480,330 $ 579,748 $1,901,095 $ 2,217,314
Total sales volume (MMcfe) 154,537 136,659 603,082 476,260 Net natural gas & liquids price, including cash settled derivatives ($/Mcfe) $ 3.11 $ 4.24 $ 3.15 $ 4.66 Midstream Deductions ($/Mcfe) Gathering to EQT Midstream $ (0.74) $ (0.71) $ (0.74) $ (0.73) Transmission to EQT Midstream (0.20) (0.20) (0.19) (0.20) Third-party gathering and transmission costs (0.52) (0.45) (0.48) (0.50)
Total midstream deductions $ (1.46) $ (1.36) $ (1.41) $ (1.43)
Average realized price to EQT Production ($/Mcfe) $ 1.65 $ 2.88 $ 1.74 $ 3.23
Gathering and transmission to EQT Midstream ($/Mcfe) $ 0.94 $ 0.91 $ 0.93 $ 0.93
Average realized price to EQT Corporation ($/Mcfe) $ 2.59 $ 3.79 $ 2.67 $ 4.16
31
Non-GAAP Reconciliation
(millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Midstream operating income $417 $237 $329 $384 $473
Add: depreciation and amortization 57 65 75 87 95
Less: gains on dispositions 203 – 20 7 –
Less: Big Sandy and Langley 14 – – – –
Adjusted Midstream EBITDA $257 $302 $384 $464 $568
EQT Corporation Adjusted EQT Midstream EBITDA