Analysis of the sustainability of land

use options: interdisciplinary

process and tools

E.-A. Nuppenau

contributions by Dimpho Matlhola, Amanda Eigner,

Benjamin Kowalski, Stephanie Domptail (SP08)

The Future Okavango (TFO)

Content

� Introduction

� Conceptual framework

� Willingness to Pay of tourists for ESS

� Social Metabolism and ESS

� Farming System Analysis and ESS valuation

� Scenario Building

� Summary

Introduction

SP08 within TFO follows the conceptual framework of TFO in

� delivering valuations as input for stakeholder communication

� translating ESS in user perspective and asking for

SP08 has worked on

� Willingness to Pay of Tourists in Seronga

� Social-Metabolism in Seronga

� Farming System Analysis and Shadow Prices in Mashare

� Scenario-building & Multi-Criteria Analysis in Seronga

SP08 will work on

� Payment for Ecosystem Service in Chitembo and Seronga

� Farming System and Shadow price in Chitembo

� Making Contribution to overall TFO goals

SP08 in valuation• scarcity of ESS for raising awareness

• ecological valuation of land use opt-

tions (MEFA, ecological integrity)

• shadow pricing (SPA) of ES services

• Willingness to pay (WTP) for ESS

• Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA)

• PES Stakeholder evaluation of

scenarios abd scenario building (ESB)

SP08 and Conceptual Framework of TFO

Social

feed-

backs,

Okavango Social-Ecological System

People/Stakeholder

ESS for well-being

• Economic values

(Monetary and non-

monetary)

• Shared social

values

Provision of

directly used ESS

and Goods

Drivers of

system

transformation

ESF

ESS

Tools and

scenarios

socioeconomic assessment

(SP 6, 7, 8, 10 transdisciplinary)

-stakeholder and ESS

-well-being + goods

-perceptions

-aspirations and strategies

-behaviour and decision making

assessment of drivers of

-technology and management

-practices, institutions and

governance

-contribution to scenario + tool

development

biophysical assessment

(SP 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9)

trans-

lation

intoAnalysis of

interactions

Analysis of interactions

delivery-values

-scenarios

-options

An Analysis of Tourist Preferences for

Ecotourism in the Okavango Delta� For a choice experiment we have

developed hypothetical scenarios

using the below attribute

- landscape- flooded delta

and reduced water flow

- wildlife- less chances of seeing wildlife due population

reduction

- management of community tourism enterprises- joint

venture with privately owned enterprises

� Levels of these attributes have been grouped into choice sets

to estimate marginal willingness to pay of tourist

tool

62

21

68

92

30

10

5743

Reasons for visiting Okavango Delta

• Tourists prefer the flooded delta and seeing many wildlife species

even at increased prices

• 54% of tourists are willing to contribute to compensation fund to be

established by the government

• 73% of tourists are willing to pay more to involve the community in

ecotourism activities

results

Socio-economic Metabolism

7

tool

Data collection

� For MEFA

� surveys on HH-level up-scaled on village level;

� secondary literature

� For the Useful Energy Analysis

� Focus groups on food consumption and on labour;

� HH estimations up-scaled on village level

Useful Energy Analysis

Energy efficiency of energy used for production

� Final Energy = food consumption

� Useful Energy = labour

The Future Okavango - Project 8

survey

Results for Seronga (Botswana)

Seronga System (sectors)

POLICIES: - Favouring wildlife protection for tourism

- Export of meat and crops

FISHKey protein source at village level

Fishing done by 30 to 50%

Stocks stable (Ramberg, 2006)

Endos. EROI: 245

LIVESTOCKExport of meat

High density and increasing (SAREP, 2012)

Endosomatic EROI: 11,1Exos. EROI: 0,02

CROPPINGMain source of foodEndos. EROI: 0,25Exos. EROI: 0,16

Almost no soil fertility managementSevere loss due to wildlife

Productive land limited

(-)

ne

ed

to

pro

tect

fie

lds

(+)

ma

nu

re,

resi

du

es

Non-land management policiesAbout 30% of the HH:

Introduction of cash economy

Electrification

TOURISMWildlife is protected

Less land access (tourism business; national parks)High density of elephants

(-) less land access

(-) losses (>2%)

Seronga Socio-Ecological system likely changes;

Switch from an agrarian society to another type of society?

method

Valuation via Shadow Price detection

Bio-economic modelling: � based on thorough Farming System Analysis � appropriate simplification

Shadow prices derived for:� Soil Quality: Yield and SQ assessment in 2013

� Irrigation water: extremely thin data base, as most commercial irrigation projects did not document any production data

Modeling of households‘ decision making: � Maximize Utility by allocating a typical households labour between agricultural

practices and casual wage work; other activites assumed constant.

Adaptation to three core sites. � Example Mashare, Namibia: Household categorization into:

ox-owners (34 % of HHs) vs. non-ox-owners (66% of HHs)

� Land scarcity in Namibia vs. land abundance in Angola

results

Preliminary Results for Mashare (Namibia)

• Minor diversification of crop production: 91.4 % of all farm-

households cultivate not more than three crops (i.e. usually 2–4),

• Mahango plus at least one vegetable (81.2%) and at least one fruit 68.2

(68.2%).

• Smallholder subsistence agriculture on 2 – 4 ha with is the main livelihood activity for the vast majority of local households.

• 88 % of all households practices dryland cropping with pearl millet (Mahango) (Pennisetum glaucum) as the main crop

• 75 % of all households own herds of less than 20 cattle and/or goats, mainly for subsistence reasons (TFO 2011)

• Extremely low yields of on average 161.2 kg/ha

Field input use Kavango region Study area

Fertilizer/Pesticides 10 % 5 %

Manure 8 – 26 % 2,5 %

Improved seeds 73 % 40 %

Exploratory scenarios for synthesis of

knowledge� Method based on MEA

(Henrichs et al., 2010)

� Aims:

� Communication of research

results

� Synthesis of disciplinary

research

Current

situationExploratory

scenarios

2030

• Outputs:

-Storylines + Spatially explicit maps of land use

-Evaluation of main assumptions about key drivers on

-ESS and well-being indicators

„I think stories are very important things so that we

will start to preparing ourselves to know what to do

and what not to do. I think it is very important for us as

a generation, within the country, nationally,

internationally. „

NAMwater senior supervisor, Rundu

Instead of a Summary let local people speak