analysis of narccap results for extremes in the canadian columbia basin
DESCRIPTION
Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia Basin. S. R. Sobie, Climate Scientist, PCIC T.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCIC H. D. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC. NARCCAP User’s Workshop APR 2012. Study area. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Analysis of NARCCAP results for Analysis of NARCCAP results for extremes in the Canadian Columbia extremes in the Canadian Columbia
BasinBasin
S. R. Sobie, Climate Scientist, PCICT.Q. Murdock, Climate Scientist, PCICH. D. Eckstrand, GIS Analyst, PCIC
NARCCAP User’s Workshop APR 2012
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Study area
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Q: Why do extremes matter?A: Users are planning for them!
Columbia Basin Trust: www.cbt.org
Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative
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Indices of extremes‣Specialized indices (fire, wind, rain-on-snow)‣Return periods (5, 10, 25, …) – fit GEV‣CLIMDEX: 27 indices
- annual (monthly) resolution- e.g. # days above 90th %-ile, warm spells, annual
days with precipitation > 10 mm, etc.- officially adopted by WMO → ETCCDI- similar to STARDEX- R and Fortran code available- based on daily Tmin, Tmax, and P (from Frich et al. 2002)
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2050s GCM Anomalies
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2050s Annual TX90p, TN10p Ratios
TX90p
TN10p
2.6 2.0 2.0 1.7
0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
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2050s Seasonal TMax, TMin Anomalies
TXx
TNn
2.2 0.7 2.6 2.6
2.9 1.6 3.6 3.6
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2050s Annual R95p Percent Anomalies
4 7 6 5
4 6 6 2
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2050s Seasonal RX1Day Anomalies
2.8 1.6 -0.1 2.6
-0.2 1.0 0.3 2.5
RX1Day
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Summary
1. People in BC need information on climate extremes for adaptation planning
2. RCMs are useful for this3. Mid-century: more extreme warm events, precipitation
extremes4. Seasonal projections are necessary5. Other indices of extremes: report (soon) at
www.PacificClimate.org & paper to follow
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AcknowledgmentsTrevor Murdock – Project Supervisor
Hailey Eckstrand – GIS wizard Seth McGinnis – NARCCAP supportGerd Bürger – Analysis of extremes
James Hiebert, Dave Bronaugh – Data support
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Thank you
Comments, questions, criticism: [email protected]
More info on PCIC: www.PacificClimate.org
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Data sources• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project
(NARCCAP ): winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb)• NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2): M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki, J.
Woollen, S-K Yang, J.J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter. 1631-1643, Nov 2002, Bul. of the Atmos. Met. Soc.
• CRU TS2.1: interpolated station observations 50 km resolution: Mitchell and Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology, 25, 693-712, Doi: 10.1002/joc.1181.
• Additional observations: Environment Canada climate stations, CANGRID, UDEL, NARR2m, VIC driving data
• XDS downscaling conducted at PCIC for PIEVC project
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Regional Index Projections
Index Units Min 10 25 50 75 90 MaxP mm -56 7 30 54 92 137 353P % -6 1 4 6 9 12 20T °C 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1TXx °C 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.3TNn °C 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.5TN10p Ratio 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5TX10p Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6TN90p Ratio 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.2TX90p Ratio 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.0RX1day mm -1.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 4.8RX5day mm -3.5 0.0 0.9 2.2 3.5 4.5 10.0CDD Days -17 -2 -1 0 1 3 12CWD Days -4 -1 0 0 1 2 5R95pTOT mm -25 5 18 42 72 101 232PRCPTOT mm -54 7 30 53 91 138 353
-Spatial percentiles of results
-Easily quantify projection ranges
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Local: RCM threshold scaling & statistical downscaling
RCM threshold
equal probabilities
design threshold
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GCM vs. RCM71-00 baseline and 2050s anomaly
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Extreme warm temperature5-year event
2.1 2.4 1.6 3.6
3.7 3.4 1.8 2.1
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`
Extreme warm temperature25-year event
5.5 4.0 3.0 10.2
10.5 2.8 2.1 9.8
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2050s Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies
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Projection presentation
CGCM3 driven RCM3
CGCM3 driven CRCM
CGCM3 driven WRFG
HADCM3 driven HRM3
GFDL driven RCM3
CCSM driven CRCM
CCSM driven WRFG
CCSM driven MM5I
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