analysis of economic reforms in india

8/12/2019 Analysis of Economic Reforms in India

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The Economy of India: Past, Present and Future

India gained independence from Britain in 1947. At the time, the country modeled its economy

after that of the Soviet Union. Major industries were largely government controlled, and extensive

permits were required in order to start a business. In addition, due to a past rife with colonial

exploitation, the nation severely limited outside trade; enacting large tariffs and putting restrictions on

foreign investment. While the country maintained fairly significant trade relations with the former Soviet

Union throughout the 1970s and 1980s, trade as a percentage of Indias GDP hovered between 10 and

15 percent from 1960 until 1990. This level was well below the world average which moved from 25 to

40 percent in the same period. Over the course of the 1980s, India found itself financing increasingly

large budget deficits. This, in combination with a disruption in trade from the collapse of the Soviet

Empire in 1989, eventually led to a Balance of Payment crisis within the country in which the Indian

government found itself without the funds necessary to operate for more than two weeks during 1991.

In response to this crisis, the government sought an emergency loan from the IMF. A loan was granted;

however, as is typical with such loans, it was granted upon the condition that India make economic

reforms. Demanding that India reduce its budget deficit, open its markets to foreign competition,

diminish its maze of licensing requirements, cut subsidies, and liberalize investment... (Weinraub, 1991),

the reforms, enacted throughout the 90s, represented a significant change from the nations economic

norms. The reforms were a positive step for the country from an economic perspective, but they were

not fully visible in many respects until over a decade later, and growth significantly faltered in 2012.

While the changes made throughout the 90s were positive, India still has many problems which must be

solved before the nation reaches its full potential. To determine how India can reach this potential,

several steps must be taken. First, the effect of the 90s reforms should be determined. This can be done


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by analyzing Indias economic statistics both before and after the reform. After this, mechanisms by

which the reforms could have effected changes in the statistics must be identified. Finally, looking at

these methods in the context of the resources and advantages which India has, the actions India must

take to increase its economic growth and move toward becoming a developed nation can be realized.

(Arun & Nixson, 2000; DCosta, 95; Kale, 2009; Vietor, 2003; World Bank Group)

Key Statistics and Their Meanings

Key statistics in analyzing Indias growth and the effect of the reforms are GDP, GDP per

Person, Employment, FDI as a Percentage of GDP, and Trade as a Percentage of GDP. Changes in

GDP give an overall sense of the size of the Indian economy. Changes in GDP per Person relate the size

of the economy to population in order give a sense of the well being of the average citizen within the

country. Employment shows the percentage of the Indian population which is likely benefiting from the1

countrys growth. FDI as a percentage of GDP shows the level of foreign investment in India in

comparison to the size of its economy. Trade as a percentage of GDP shows how reliant the nation is

upon trade. Additionally, both the FDI and trade statistics indicate the degree to which the nation is

benefitting from trade and the globalising world. The most important of the mentioned statistics to

increase are GDP per Person and employment. While all of the statistics give useful information, these

two statistics indicate the general quality of life to be found within a country, and the number of

individuals who are actually able to partake in that quality of life. Increasing the other statistics is positive

as it works toward increasing these two. (Taylor & Weerapana, 2012)

India Before and After Reform: A Statistical View

1 Employment is the only statistic mentioned which is not directly available. India does not haveemployment data available before the early 90s. To determine changes within employment from the 1980s tothe 1990s, the number of people registered with Indias Employment Exchanges was used. After the 1990sthe Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment are considered.


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After reforms began in 1991, India saw significant improvements in FDI as a percentage of

GDP, trade as a percentage of GDP, and employment. GDP and GDP per Capita continued growing

as normal. What this indicates is that the reforms did not initially improve life for the average employed

Indian. However, the reforms did much to integrate India with the world economy. In 2002, GDP and

GDP per Person joined FDI and trade in their upward movement. This is the point at which the reforms

seem to have truly started to visibly benefit the country. High levels of economic growth continued up

until the 2008 world recession when Employment , Trade and FDI saw moderate to large decreases. In2

2012, growth in GDP and GDP per Capita began slowing. (Pandey, World Bank Group)

The overall story told by Indias economic statistics over the end of the 20th century is an

optimistic one. Indias economy grew at a faster pace than its population, and the nation became

wealthier. Its firms became increasingly involved in international trade, and a large amount of foreign

capital was invested in the country. The 2008 recession provided a setback; however it did little to dent

the overall improvements seen in the nation. If the reforms of the 90s are to be pointed to as the cause

of Indias growth, an explanation must be given as to why this is the case. In answering this, it is helpful

to look at the economic explanations of growth and the ways in which trade benefits a nation.

Increased GDP Through Increased Efficiency

Economists consider a nations GDP to be a function of the labor, capital, and technology it

contains. The more labor and capital a country has, and the more technology available to increase

productivity, the higher the nations GDP will be. Given a particular amount of labor and capital, and a

certain level of technology, a country should theoretically be able to produce some potential output. This

2 According to World Bank statistics, while Unemployment remained fairly stable, The Labor ForceParticipation Rate decreased by several percentage points. Barring major social changes, this can beviewed as a reduction in Employment.


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potential output is dependent upon labor and capital being used efficiently however. It is entirely

possible that inefficient use of labor and capital might cause an economy to produce less than its

potential output. A lack of competition, subsidies, or having to deal with excessive government

regulations would be examples of factors which might cause labor and capital to be allocated

inefficiently. All of these factors were reduced by the 90s reforms. Firms were forced to deal with

foreign competition as tariffs and quotas were reduced, subsidies were reduced or eliminated, and much

bureaucratic red tape was done away with. These changes all provide mechanisms through which the

reforms may have improved Indias GDP and GDP per Person. (Arun & Nixson, 2000; DCosta, 95;

Kale, 2009; Taylor & Weerapana, 2012; Vietor, 2003)

Increased GDP Through Trade

Aside from being forced to compete with foreign firms, increased trade and participation in the

global economy provided another mechanism through which the reforms might have caused growth in

India. Different nations have different advantages when it comes to producing a given product. This

might be an absolute advantage in which one nation can produce at a lower monetary cost than another.

It could also be a comparative advantage in which one nation can produce a good with a lower

opportunity cost than another. Alternatively, a nation could have a competitive advantage in which they

have access to some underlying resource or infrastructure which gives an advantage to output. The 90s

reforms reduced import limitations, tariffs, and limits on FDI. Doing so allowed foreign firms to invest in

India in order to produce goods at a lower cost via absolute, comparative, and competitive advantages.

It also allowed Indians to do the same; perhaps purchasing capital at a lower price or buying consumer

goods at lower prices. Able to purchase goods efficiently produced in other countries and focus on

producing that which it could produce most efficiently would have increased the total capital in India and


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enabled the country to more effectively utilize the labor and capital available to it. The result of this

would be to not only move the countrys output toward its potential, but also to increase potential

output. (DCosta, 1995; Henry, 2008; Kale, 2009; Kotwal & Rhamaswami & Wadhwa, 2012;

Mukherji, 2009; Taylor & Weerapana, 2012; Vietor, 2003)

The Importance of Globalisation on Trade

A countrys absolute, comparative, and competitive advantages have become increasingly

important over the last several decades as the world has been rapidly globalising. Globalisation is the

process of geographically separated areas of the world becoming more interconnected and

interdependent on one another. This is caused largely by improvements in communication and

transportation technology. These technologies form the basis of trade, and due to their rapid

improvement countries and firms can now more than ever coordinate production across multiple

continents. Firms can now, to an unprecedented degree, utilize the absolute, comparative, and

competitive advantages found in different nations in order to produce goods at the lowest possible cost.

Thus, while trade has always been capable of increasing a countrys potential output, its ability to do this

has been at an all time high. The globalized state of the world makes it critical that India participate in

trade if the nation wishes to see levels of prosperity comparable to that of the worlds richer nations. It

is only through trade that these wealthier nations have achieved their standards of living. (Lechner, 2000;

Taylor & Weerapana, 2012)

Increased Employment Through Increased Efficiency and Trade

It is only natural that an influx of foreign investment, a reduction on import restrictions, and more

efficient allocation of labor and resources would, in raising GDP and increasing trade, also increase

employment. Not having to deal with additional regulations and saving on foreign bought capital, Indian


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firms would have more funds available to hire additional employees to increase production. Additionally,

because India has an absolute advantage in terms of the price of labor in comparison to industrialized

nations, it is more attractive for many foreign firms to purchase Indian labor over domestic labor.

Increased efficiency within India in combination with an openness toward trade would thus attract

foreign firms wishing to purchase inexpensive labor. In this manner, the reforms would act to increase

employment levels within India. It is worth mentioning once again that employment, along with GDP per

Person, is one of the key statistics a country must improve to increase the quality of its citizens lives.

Those who are involuntarily unemployed cannot truly benefit from increases in GDP per Person.

(Raman & Chadee, 2011; Weede 2010)

Increased GDP Through Improved Technology

Just as cheaper capital and more efficient utilization of capital and labor would increase

opportunities for employment, it would also increase investment in new technology. Indian firms would

have had an increased access to new technology as trade restrictions were lifted. With more foreign

investment available, more effectively allocated capital and labor, and foreign or local competition

pushing firms to be as productive as possible, it is only logical that firms would seek to invest in this

newly available technology to improve their output. Again, GDP is a function of labor, capital, and

technology. As firms implemented new or imported technologies, Indias total potential output would

have increased. (Taylor & Weerapana, 2012)

Indias Economic Strategy

Using basic economic theory, all of the reforms India made can be linked to increases in their

economic statistics via increased trade or better allocation of capital and labor. It seems that the

countrys strategy for economic growth has been to implement policies which increase the effective


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utilization of capital and labor, and to engage in trade in order to benefit from the various advantages of

other nations. This fits with statements the nations government has made, and the general outlook of

those reporting on the region. The idea behind this strategy is economically sound, and statistics show

that the Indian government has greatly increased the standard of living of its people. There is still much

work to be done however. Using the established methods of creating economic growth, it is now

possible to analyze the current situation within India, along with the nations various advantages, and

determine the actions which must be taken to push Indias employment and GDP per Person still higher.

(Arun & Nixson, 2000; DCosta, 1995; Kale, 2009; Vietor, 2003)

Indias Competitive Advantages and Disadvantages

India has a competitive advantage in its large supply of natural resources. These include its vast

forests and fishable coastline; reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas; and various metal and mineral

deposits (Central Intelligence Agency). Additionally the country has a large supply of young workers, a

large number of English speakers, and a state funded education system which has enabled a good

fraction of the workforce to become highly skilled (Bernstein, 2011; Central Intelligence Agency;

Kotwal & Rhamaswami & Wadhwa, 2012; Raman & Chadee, 2011). India is disadvantaged by its

geographic location; surrounded by many poor countries which are not capable of engaging in large

volumes of trade. As trading goods with neighboring states is less costly and simpler than trading with

distant nations, India is thus at a disadvantage when it comes to trading goods in comparison to

developing countries like China (with neighbors Japan and Russia) or Mexico (bordering the US).

(Kaul, 2013) India is also disadvantaged by its lack of infrastructure, limitations on FDI, and the

prevalence of organized labor within the country. (Henry, 2008; Mukherji, 2009; Raman & Chadee,

2011; Veeramani)


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India has taken advantage of the educated english speaking portion of its workforce and

modern communication systems in order to work around some of its competitive disadvantages. The

nation has become a hub for low cost IT support, backend office services, and software development.

These services are not dependent on Indias geographic location, and have led Indias growth over the

past two decades. This growth in services has been possible both because of the nations competitive

advantages, and because the nation has an absolute advantage when it comes to skilled and semi-skilled

labor. (Bernstein, 2011; Kaul, 2013; Kotwal & Rhamaswami & Wadhwa, 2012; Raman & Chadee,

2011)

Indias Comparative Advantages and Failure to Capitalize On Them

India has comparative advantages in various manufactured goods due to its low cost unskilled

labor and competitive advantages. Many of these advantages are considered to be greater than Chinas,

the world leader in manufacturing. However, despite this, Chinas market share in these goods is

typically higher; beyond that which is explainable by the difference in the size of China and Indias

economies. It is thought that Indias lack of infrastructure (nearly a quarter of Indians lack electricity),

strict labor laws which prevent hiring, and prevalent labor unions are discouraging foreign investment in

manufacturing in India; even when the nation seemingly has a comparative advantage. (Batra & Khan,

2005; Henry, 2008; Weed, 2010; Veeramani)

Indias Trading Partners

Despite existing difficulties the nation faces, it still engages in enormous amounts of trade. Indias

trade as a percentage of GDP moved from 11 to 55 percent between 1960 and 2012. India has a

diverse list of trading partners. Its top 15 trading partners in 2012 included economic powerhouses like

the US and China, small developed nations like Belgium and Switzerland, and developing nations such


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as Iran and Indonesia. Indias trade with developed nations centers around the countrys low cost labor

and technical services industry. While the nation is involved in regional trade agreements to facilitate

trade with neighbors such as Indonesia, the limited wealth of these neighbors keeps this trade from

dominating that from other sources. Indias largest trade partner is the UAE. The relationship between

these two countries centers around Indias growing need for petroleum; petroleum being Indias largest

item of import from the UAE. Indias exports to the UAE are varied and range from manufactured

petroleum products to agricultural exports and natural resources such as metals and wood. What is

clear is that, even with its abundant natural resources, Indian growth is dependent on trade. (Department

of Commerce; Henry, 2008; Kale, 2009; Ministry of External Affairs, 2013; World Bank Group)

Indian Politics as a Competitive Advantage/Disadvantage

The politics of India and the policies of its government have provided competitive advantages

and disadvantages for India throughout its recent history. The socialist and protectionist outlook of the

government from the time of the countrys independence up until the 90s reforms clearly held the nation

back economically. The positive results of reform have changed the political landscape within the

country however. While this reform was initially forced upon the nation, it is now viewed in a positive

light by many in India. The nation still has some protectionist policies -especially in the agricultural

sector- and restrictions on FDI are still fairly severe in comparison to policies elsewhere in the world. A

political readiness for additional reform exists however, and it stands to be taken advantage of.

Additionally, between 2005 and 2013, the government reduced its debt from 61 to 48 percent of GDP.

The result of this should be to increase the nations bond ratings and hopefully attract additional

investment. (Arun & Nixson, 2000; DCosta, 1995; Elkhoury, 2008; Fernandez, 2004; Hasan, 2006;

Indias credit rating, 2012; Kale, 2009; Kaul, 2013; Upadhya, 2009; World Bank Group)


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Indias Future

If India wishes to continue to benefit from high levels of economic growth, it must continue on

the path of reform. There is much the nation can do to strategically increase GDP per Person and

Employment. The nation must remove restrictions on FDI; it must continue to lower tariffs, especially in

the agricultural sector; and the government must make the country more attractive to investment from

manufacturers through changes in labor laws and investment in infrastructure.

Improving FDI

Regarding FDI, the most important actions that India can take are to be ready for increases in

the level of world investment by removing restrictions on FDI before they occur, and to ensure that

investment in the nation is perceived as stable. The figure below shows Indias FDI as a percentage of

GDP in comparison to FDI as a percentage of world GDP. Changes in Indias bond ratings are also

shown.


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(CountryEconomy.com; World Bank Group)

Two main observations can be made looking at the figure. The first is that Indias FDI rises and falls

with worldwide FDI. The second is that positive bond ratings are correlated with larger increases (and

decreases) in FDI in response to world changes. The largest change in FDI came as a result of the

nation opening itself to FDI in 1991. Should the nation remove the remaining restrictions on FDI while

maintaining or improving its bond ratings, it should expect to see large increases in foreign investment the

next time worldwide FDI surges. (Elkhoury, 2008; Indias credit rating, 2012; Kaul, 2013)

Reducing Artificial Support for Agriculture

Existing subsidies and tariffs for the Indian agricultural industry must be lowered or eliminated.

Introducing foreign competition and more efficiently produced foreign goods will spur growth in India,

as previously explained when discussing the reduction of other tariffs and subsidies. Nearly half of

Indias workforce is involved in agricultural production, and so long as the government provides these


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protections the agricultural sector will not become more productive. This will prevent other areas of the

economy from expanding as agriculture consumes an overly large portion of the economy. Sudden

changes in trade policy can have detrimental impacts on industries however. As such, due to the

importance of agriculture within India, it is imperative that reforms are made gradually and predictably.

(Bhattacharyya, 2011; Henry, 2008; Mukherji, 2009; Taylor & Weerapana, 2012)

Increasing Manufacturing

India must develop a manufacturing base. Growth in services has greatly benefitted India.

However, the majority of Indias workforce is poor, not highly educated, and cannot participate in

service based export industries. While India has seen rapid growth in GDP per Capita, it is thought that

the majority of this increase has been felt only by the nations most educated. An increased presence of

manufacturing will allow India to utilize and improve the lives of its less skilled and uneducated majority.

As mentioned, India has comparative advantages in numerous manufacturing sectors. Because of this,

firms already have a motivation to produce in India, they simply need the means. The key to this will be

government investment in infrastructure and simplifying labor laws so that it is more desirable to hire

permanent employees. The result of this will be significant improvements in GDP per Person as upward

mobility is improved for the poorest segments of the countrys population. (Bernstein, 2011; Kotwal &

Rhamaswami & Wadhwa, 2012; Mukherji, 2009; Raman & Chadee, 2011; Subramanian, 2013;

Weede, 2010)

A Hopeful Outlook

India has come very far since both its independence and since the 1990s economic reforms.

However, the nation still has a long path ahead if its goal is to attain a standard of living for its citizens

comparable to that in the developed world. Growth in the nation having recently stagnated, the


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government must make swift efforts to repeat the events of the 1990s and show the world that India is

both welcome to and ripe for foreign investment and capital. Should the nation succeed in this effort

-reducing impediments to business, trade and investment- it will see growth as it never has before.

Should the nation fail -relying solely on the reforms of the 1990s- then its economy will flounder and its

people will not prosper. Economics is not the science of business, it is the study of satisfying human

wants and needs in an environment of scarce resources. Failing to follow economically prudent policies

will not simply leave Indias businesses hurting; it will leave the needs and wants of the Indian people

unsatisfied. As such, the path which India embarks on today will fundamentally determine the wellbeing

of its people in the future.

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