analysis of axisymmetric hurricanes in statistical equilibrium
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TRANSCRIPT
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Analysis of Axisymmetric Hurricanes inStatistical Equilibrium
Gregory J. Hakim
University of Washington
29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Sponsors: NSF & ONR
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Motivation
Basic understanding of “intrinsic” tropical cyclone variability
remove variability due to environment (SST & shear)remove variability due to asymmetries (motion, etc.)isolate predictable components
Numerical modelingprovides necessarily control to answer these questionsvery long simulations3D (WRF) (Bonnie Brown poster P2.76)here: axisymmetric
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Method
Idealized axisymmetric modeling
modified version of Bryan and Rotunno (2009) model (r14)examine the mean and variability of the equilibrium solutioncompare mean with maximum potential intensity (MPI)
HistoryRotunno & Emanuel (1987): test of Emanuel (1986)Persing & Montgomery (2003): superintensityBryan & Rotunno (2009): superintensity sensitivity
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Superintensity
Bryan & Rotunno (2009)
simulated intensity exceeds E-MPIPersing & Montgomery (2003): high entropy air in eyeBryan & Rotunno (2009): radial mixing parameterization
“realistic value” lh ∼ 1500 m.
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Maximum wind speed for “standard configuration”
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
time (days)
win
d s
pee
d (
m/s
)
SST = 26.3◦C; Rayleigh damping “radiation”; warm rain; lh = 1500 m
little variability
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Maximum wind speed for “standard configuration”
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
time (days)
win
d s
pee
d (
m/s
)
SST = 26.3◦C; Rayleigh damping “radiation”; warm rain; lh = 1500 m
storm decays; not in equilibrium
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Why does the storm dissipate?
angular momentum (lines) & relative humidity (colors)
t = 15 days t = 25 days
Problems with Rayleigh damping “radiation”
Only damps existing perturbations; cannot create newSmall outflow radius; dry air descends to small rEnvironment not in rad-conv equilibrium
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Method
ModificationsExplicit radiation: RRTM-G longwave parameterizationThompson et al. (2008) microphysics (6 class; 2-moment)E-MPI modified to include ice (pseudoadiabatic entropy)no initial disturbance (cf. initial vortex in previous work)
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Maximum wind speed with radiation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140
20
40
60
80
100
120
time (days)
win
d s
pee
d (
m/s
)
convection develops from rest; superintense storm by day 10
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Maximum wind speed with radiation
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
20
40
60
80
100
120
time (days)
win
d s
pee
d (
m/s
)
superintense storm is transient; replaced by “equilibrium” storm
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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E-MPI
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
time (days)
win
d sp
eed
(m/s
)
67 +/− 8.1 m/s70 +/− 3.9 m/s
periods of superintensity (days), but not in mean.
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Sensitivity to turbulence mixing parameterization (lh)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 300040
60
80
100
120
140
160
lh (m)
win
d s
pee
d (
m/s
)
equilibrium stormtransient stormBryan & Rotunno (2009)
lh sensitivitytransient storm sensitive as in Bryan and Rotunno (2009)equilibrium storm is insensitiveimplies standard sfc drag and vertical mixing are sufficient
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Variability
Examine the variability of the equilibrium stormdominant structuresdominant timescales
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Surface azimuthal wind r–t diagram
bands of stronger wind propagate inwarddominant time scale?
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Surface azimuthal wind power spectrumpower spectrum; AR-1 (e-folding corr); AR-1 (lag-1 corr)
32 16 8 4 2 1 0.5 0.25 0.12510
−2
10−1
100
101
102
103
104
105
period (days)
pow
er
Two “peaks”∼1–3 hours: “random” convection4–8 days: organized convective bands
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Radius of maximum wind time series
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
time (days)
rad
ius
(km
)
rapid jumps from ∼30 km to ∼60–100 km.analog of eyewall replacement
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Composite mean “eyewall replacement” (131 events)
radius max winds (m) wind (m/s) & pressure (hPa)
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40 500
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
time (hours)
radi
us o
f max
imum
win
d (k
m)
−50 −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 20 30 40 50−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
time (hours)
max
imum
win
d (m
/s)
& c
entr
al p
ress
ure
(hP
a) a
nom
alie
s
RMW moves inward at ∼0.2 m/s and slowsasymmetric response in wind & pressure
(initially) slower weakening and faster intensification
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Azimuthal wind regressed onto maximum wind
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
−200
−150
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
−2
0
2
4
6
8
sample size = 3759 (most of field is significant at 99%)4–8 day timescale apparentbands originate > 200 km radius
range in r sets timescale?
bands move inward 2 m/s; slowing to ∼ 0.2 m/s near eye
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
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Conclusions: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium
Genesissuperintense storm develops spontaneously from restsuggests instability to symmetric convectionsuggests damping by asymmetries is important
Mean state“real” radiation critical for storm dynamicsequilibrium storm average intensity matches E-MPIequilibrium storm insensitive to radial mixing
Variability“eyewall replacement cycles”: convective bands at large raverage “return time” ∼4–8 days
Gregory J. Hakim AMS 2010: Axisymmetric Hurricanes in Statistical Equilibrium