analysis capabilities developed in support of wtic … capabilities developed in support of wtic...

Tom Reynolds

Air Traffic Control Systems Group

Friends & Partners of Aviation Weather (FPAW) Meeting

Washington, DC, August 3, 2016

Analysis Capabilities Developed

in Support of WTIC Research

Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.

WTIC Winds Panel - 2

TGR 08/03/16

Time Target

Meter Fix

Time target and

Wind updates

Motivation: Wind Impacts on4D-Trajectory Based Operations

FMS

Wind

Forecast

ATC Systems

ATC

Wind

Forecast

Need for research to inform Minimum Weather Service & 4D-TBO guidance documents

Actual

Winds

FMS = Flight Management System

4D-TBO = 4D-Trajectory Based Operations

Fre

qu

en

cy

0

Time Error

95% time compliance

at meter fix

Other aircraft forming

traffic stream


TGR 08/03/16

• Support WTIC objective to develop a minimum weather service

• Perform analyses to determine wind information specifications and potential FMS wind-related enhancements that enable current and selected NextGen operations to meet performance objectives in various wind conditions

• Various capabilities developed to support this charter

Charter

Develop Modeling Framework

Identify NextGen Operations

Impacted by Wind Forecasts

Work with Stakeholders

• Identify performance objectives

Conduct Analysis

• Develop analysis infrastructure

• Develop Trade Spaces of

Performance vs data source,

accuracy, update rate, etc.

• Assess datalink implications

Develop Recommendations for

Minimum Wind Information and

Datalink Requirements

Te

ch

nic

al re

po

rts

,

RT

CA

ac

tivit

ies

, e

tc.


TGR 08/03/16

Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History

Wind Information Analysis Framework (WIAF)

Phase I II III IV V

12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012

Performance

AssessmentWind

forecast

assumpt

ions

Wind

Scenario Truth

Forecast

Air

cra

ft/A

uto

mati

on

Sim

ula

tio

n

Stakeholder needs

ATC

Scenario 4D-TBO

IM

Wind

Requirements

Identify combinations of

wind data forecast model

& look-ahead time which

meet required wind info

quality goal

Pe

rf

Me

tric

Wind Information Quality

Low

Med

High

Sample

targetperformance

Av

era

ge

fore

ca

st

err

or

Look-ahead time

Benign,

Moderate,

Severe,

Extreme

ModelABC

Req’d

wind

info

quality

Scenario VariableOverall Impact on

Performance

Worse Performance

From…*

Better Performance

From…*

FMS RTA capability Major

FMS RTA tolerance Major Wider RTA tolerance Tighter RTAtolerance

Wind forecast error

magnitudeMajor

Wind forecast error

location relative to meter fixMedium

Truth wind variabilityMedium (correlates

with error magnitude)

Cruise flight level Medium

Waypoint (wind forecast

point) densityMinor

Hi forecast

errorLo forecast

error

Near forecast

error

Far forecast

error

Hi var

truth wind

Lo var

truth wind

High cruise level Low cruise level

Few cruise wind WPs Many cruise wind WPs

Open-Loop

in Descent

Full Closed-

Loop Control


TGR 08/03/16

Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History

AircraftCDU

MCP

Autopilot

Autothrottle

ADC

ADIRS

FQPU

GPS Clock

TMC

Discretes

Comm

Layer

PilotAerodynamics,

Inertial

Engines, etc.FMS

AircraftCDU

MCP

Autopilot

Autothrottle

ADC

ADIRS

FQPU

GPS Clock

TMC

Discretes

Comm

Layer

PilotAerodynamics,

Inertial

Engines, etc.FMS

Common Data Bus

Airline ATCAIM Web

Service

Wx Web

Service

Wx

Controller

Cockpit

DisplayLRU DisplayLRU DisplayLRU DisplayLRU DisplayLRU Displays

MCP

Display

CDU Web

Display

Scenario

Controller

Data

Collection

CDU

Scripter

Mapping

Display

CDU/Track

Web Server

= Lincoln

= Honeywell

= Lockheed

Services/ Agents/Displays

AircraftCDU

MCP

Autopilot

Autothrottle

ADC

ADIRS

FQPU

GPS Clock

TMC

Discretes

Pilot

Aerodynamics,

Inertial

FMS

x40 Aircraft

Engines

AircrafT Operations Modeling System (ATOMS)

Phase I II III IV V

12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012

Low (5 kts RMS)

Medium (15 kts RMS)

Hi (25 kts RMS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A-FMS/Tol 6A-FMS/Tol 30

B-FMS/Tol 30

95%

RTA

Co

mp

lian

ce (

secs)

Wind forecast

errorFMS RTA Capability/Tolerance

A-FMS=GE and HW RL FMS

with full flight RTA control

B-FMS= HW BL FMS with

cruise RTA control only


TGR 08/03/16

Case Study: Establishing Wind Information Needs and Associated ConOps/Datalink Needs to Support a Given

Level of Required 4D-TBO Performance

Low (5 kts RMS)

Medium (15 kts RMS)

Hi (25 kts RMS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A-FMS/Tol 6A-FMS/Tol 30

B-FMS/Tol 30

95

% R

TA

Co

mp

lia

nc

e (

secs)

Wind forecast

errorFMS RTA Capability/Tolerance

A-FMS=GE and HW RL FMS

with full flight RTA control

B-FMS= HW BL FMS with

cruise RTA control only

1. Define scenarios of interest

2. Identify performance trade-space

3. Select target performance level

4. Do feasible combinations

of performance drivers meet target level of performance?

Yes (wind error limit)

No

5. Do feasible

combinations of wind forecast model and look-

ahead time meet error

limit?

Yes

No

Identified need for

enhanced

automation and/or

wind model

“or”

6. Define procedure/ConOps/datalink needs to

get required wind info accuracy to aircraft

4D-TBO from cruise at FL290-390 to

meter fix at 12,000 ft

±10 secs

95% of time

(slice

through

trade-space

at 20 secs)

1) Any combination with 5 kts RMS wind error

2) A-FMS/Tol 6 only with 15 kts RMS wind error

3) No FMS/operation with 25 kts RMS wind error

Wind information needed

to support any studied

aircraft/FMS combination

On average:

GFS: cannot support 5 kts RMSE

RAP: <2.1 hrs lookahead

HRRR: <3.0 hrs lookahead


TGR 08/03/16

• Integration of WIAF, ATOMS & MAFID (Meteorological and Flight Information Database)

– Allows identification of scenarios based on operational flights meeting desired criteria

– Simulate flights with truth atmosphere data based on MDCRS measurements

Current Infrastructure Development

Aircraft Reported

Atmosphere Model (ARAM)

Forecasted Wind &

Temperature Selection

Trajectory Estimation

ATOMS

Weather Forecast

Data Service

Route Planning

Datalink ForecastsSelection

Scenario Creation

Flight Simulation

Scenario Definition

Scenario Data Files Creation

Test Definition

ARAM Flight Qualification

Flight Qualification

MDCRSTFMSASDE-X

Flown Route Analyzer

Data AssociationData Ingest

CIFP

HRRR

Route Service

MAFID

Aircraft ATCAtmos. AOC Etc.

MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System

Phase I II III IV V

12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012


TGR 08/03/16

• To maximize the realism of the conditions, now can use aircraft-derived meteorological data reports from MDCRS-equipped aircraft

• Simulated aircraft reproduced actual flights

Leveraging Aircraft In-SituAtmospheric Measurements

MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System


TGR 08/03/16

• Key research questions:

1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs) in a B757 FMS from four to nine?

2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions?

Latest RTA Analysis

1

DFL

2

3

4

Operational B757 Pegasus FMS

(4 DFLs, wind only)

Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS

(9 DFLs, wind & temp)

DFL

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

A B

C D 9 DFLs 4 DFLs

Headwind optimized profile

Magnitude optimized profile

Equidistant altitude selection profile


TGR 08/03/16

• Airlines currently often use simple wind selection procedures to determine what (if any) forecast information to load into the FMS

• FMS can only accept a limited set of forecast data at discrete points

– E.g., Four Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs)

Latest RTA Analysis:Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent Forecasts

DFL

Boeing 757, Honeywell Pegasus FMS

DFL = Descent Forecast Level

1

2

3

4


TGR 08/03/16

Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent ForecastResearch Questions

1

DFL

2

3

4

1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of

DFLs in a B757 FMS from four to nine?

Operational B757 Pegasus FMS

(4 DFLs, wind only)

Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS

(9 DFLs, wind & temp)

DFL = Descent Forecast Level

DFL

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


TGR 08/03/16

Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent ForecastResearch Questions

2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude

selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions?

A B

C D 9 DFLs

Headwind optimized profile

Magnitude optimized profile

Equidistant altitude selection profile

4 DFLs


TGR 08/03/16

• Analysis capabilities critical to support WTIC mission

• Range of tools developed at Lincoln to assess impacts of atmospheric forecast accuracy on 4D-TBO performance

• Application of tools being leveraged in range of areas, e.g., RTCA guidance documents

• On-going work:

– Use of aircraft-derived winds (e.g., via Mode S EHS)

– RTA to lower altitude meter fixes

• Interested to explore collaborations with other stakeholders who could benefit from access to tools

Summary


TGR 08/03/16

This material is based upon work supported by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002 and/or FA8702-15-D-0001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration.

© 2016 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as defined in DFARS Part 252.227-7013 or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding any copyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined by DFARS 252.227-7013 or DFARS252.227-7014 as detailed above. Use of this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S. Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work.


TGR 08/03/16

Backups


TGR 08/03/16

KDEN Simulations(No Forecast Data)


TGR 08/03/16

KDEN Simulations(Cruise and 4 Magn-opt DFLs w/ 3hr fcst)


TGR 08/03/16

ResultsAll Qualified Flights, Wind Magnitude Optimized

±2 × std

Within

+/- 10sec: 24.5%

analysis capabilities developed in support of wtic … capabilities developed in support of wtic...

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