an overview of the unified forecast system (ufs)
TRANSCRIPT
1 / 23DTC UFS SRW workshop, Sep. 21, 2021
An overview of the Unified Forecast System (UFS)Hendrik Tolman
For the UFS Steering Committeehttps://UFSCommunity.org
Dr. Ir. Hendrik L. TolmanSenior Advisor for Advanced Modeling SystemOffice of Science and Technology IntegrationNational Weather Service / NOAA
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BLUFNOAA moving to Unified Forecast System (UFS) approach● Simplification of Production Suite (nowcast to seasonal)● Accelerate R2O (research and operations with same tools)● Broaden the base (government, academia and industry)
This has moved from an idea to a reality● Releases and operational implementations
➤ Medium Range Weather and Short Range Weather App.➤ Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System ➤ Prototype coupled system
u NG-GODAS 40 year reanalysis
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About the UFS The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is a comprehensive, community-developed Earth modeling system, designed as both a research tool and as the basis for NOAA’s operational forecasts.
Planning and evidence-based decision-making support improving research and operations transitions and community engagement.
UFS is configurable into multiple applications that span local to global domains and predictive time scales from less than an hour to more than a year.
UFS is a unified system because the applications within it share science components and software infrastructure.
UFS is a paradigm shift that will enable NOAA to simplify the NCEP Production Suite, to accelerate use of leading research, and to produce more accurate forecasts for the U.S. and its partners.
Purpose
Scope
Governance
Design
Impact
“System” in UFS = code + governance + community
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UFS in a nutshell
Milestones:● Buy in at AA level (UMC)● MoA with NCAR● Community Modeling● Research and Ops.● UFS R2O project● Recently:
➤ NOAA Modeling Board➤ EPIC
NPS Modeling System
Current Version
Q1 FY 20
Q2 FY 20
Q3FY 20
Q4 FY 20
Q1 FY 21
Q2 FY 21
Q3FY 22
Q4FY 22
Q1 FY 23
Q2FY 23
Q3FY 23
Q4FY 23
Q1 FY 24
Q2FY 24
Q3FY 24
Q4FY 24
UFS Application
Global Weather & Global Analysis
GFS/ GDASv15
Global Waves GWMv3Global Weather Ensembles GEFSv11Global Wave Ensembles GWESv3Global Aerosols NGAC v2Short-Range Regional Ensembles SREFv7
Global Ocean & Sea-Ice RTOFSv1.2 RTOFSv2 RTOFSv3Global Ocean Analysis GODASv2 GODASv3
Seasonal ClimateCDAS/ CFSv2
SFSv1 UFS Seasonal
Regional Hurricane 1 HWRFv12 HWRFv13Regional Hurricane 2 HMONv2 HMONv3Regional High Resolution CAM 1
HiRes Window v7
Regional High Resolution CAM 2
NAM nests/ Fire Wxv4
Regional High Resolution CAM 3
RAPv4/ HRRRv3
RAPv5/ HRRRv4
Regional HiRes CAM Ensemble HREFv2
HREFv3
Regional Mesoscale Weather NAMv4
Regional Air Quality CMAQv5 CMAQv6
Regional Surface Weather Analysis
RTMA/ URMA v2.7
RTMA/ URMA v2.8
3DRTMA/URMAv3
Atmospheric Transport & Dispersion HySPLITv7
HySPLITv8
HySPLITv9
UFS Air Quality & Dispersion
Coastal & Regional Waves NWPSv1.2
NWPS v1.3
NWPS v1.4 RWPSv1 UFS Coastal
Great Lakes GLWUv3.4 GLWUv4 GLWUv5 UFS LakesRegional Hydrology NWMv2 NWMv3 NWMv4 UFS Hydrology
Space Weather 1 WAM/IPEv1Space Weather 2 ENLILv1
HAFSv1 HAFSv2
RRFSv2
HAFSv3
UFS Short-Range Regional HiRes
CAM & Regional Air Quality
RRFSv1
WAMv2
Q3FY 21 - Q2FY22MORATORIUM
UFS Space Weather
GEFSv12
UFS Medium Range & Sub-
Seasonal
UFS Marine & Cryosphere
GFSv16
UFS Hurricane
GFSv17/ GEFSv13
3. Community-friendly workflowCIME - CROW unification, CIME Case Control System 4. Hierarchical model development capabilitiesExtensions of CIME data models, unit, and system testing5. Forecast Verification: Comparison to ObservationsExtension of METplus
6. Software Repository ManagementNCAR manage_externals tool
7. User / Developer SupportDTC and CESM Capabilities
1. Coupling componentsNew ESMF/NUOPC mediator (CMEPS/NEMS)2. Interoperable atmospheric physicsCCPP & CPF frameworks
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Theory or Practice ?
What makes the UFS a reality:● Graduate Student Test (GST)
➤ Install an application in a day● Supported code releases
➤ Medium Range Weather Application releases (2)➤ Short Range Weather Application release➤ Access to full code base, even if there is no ‘release” yet
u HAFS, Coupled prototype S2S model➤ Infrastructure, components, tools …➤ Link to JEDI for Data Assimilation
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R2O AccelerationPre-UFS● WW3 and HWRF examples● Factor 3-5 acceleration of R2O process
➤ Same code in research and operations➤ Shared test environment➤ Leveraging of external investments / Larger team
UFS:● A little early to assess● …. but GFS beating ECMWF for a full week in March had not
happenened in a long time .....
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Release Schedule (tentative)(Planned) releases / implementations● Medium-range Weather (MRW) App 1.0.0, March 2020
➤ FV3 based, Interoperable atmospheric physics and land surface supported with Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
● GEFSv12.0, UFS based implementation September 2020➤ FV3 based, coupled waves, aerosols
● Medium-range Weather (MRW) App 1.1.0, October 2020➤ Updates from graduate student test responses, build systems, documentation, chgres
● GFSv16, operational implementation March 2021➤ Updated atmospheric physics
● Short-range Weather (SRW) App 1.0, March 2021➤ FV3 Limited Area Model before estimated 2023-2024 implementation
● MRW App v2.0.0, TBD, tentatively “next one up”➤ Possibly fully coupled Seasonal / S2S prototype, well before tent. 2024-2025 impl.
● Many components, e.g., MET, CCPP, as well as first JEDI-FV3 release in Nov. 2020.
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Other UFS foci
RRFS development● Other presentations in this workshop
HAFS development● Tentative replacement of HWRF● Tentative framework for Warn on Forecast System
Following pages:● Coupled Prototype S2S model● Workflow ● Formalizing the Innovation to Operations process
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S2S Prototype layout (p1)Atmosphere● FV3 dynamical core● GFS Physics with GFDL microphysics● CCPP physics driver ● C384 (~25km), 64 levels
Ocean● MOM6 Modular Ocean Model● ¼ degree tripolar grid, 75 hybrid levels ● OM4 Set up [Adcroft, 2019]
Waves (not active in P1)● WAVEWATCH III● ½ degree regular lat/lon grid ● ST4 Physics [Ardhuin, 2010]
Ice● CICE5 Los Alamos Sea Ice
Model ● ¼ degree tripolar grid (same as
ocean) ● 5 thickness categories● No Mushy thermodynamics
Driver/Mediator● NEMS driver● NEMS mediator
https://github.com/ufs-community/ufs-s2s-model
Prototype slides courtesy Jessica Meixner, EMC
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S2S Prototype experimentsInitial Conditions
FV3GFS MOM6 CICE5 WW3
UFS_p1 CFSR CFSR CFSR n/a
UFS_p2 CFSR CPC 3Dvar CFSR n/a
UFS_p3.1 CFSR CPC 3Dvar
CPC ice analysis n/a
UFS_p4 CFSR CPC 3Dvar
CPC ice analysis
Generated with CFS forcing
● 35 day free forecasts ● April 2011 to March 2018
○ Initialized from the 1st and 15th of each month
○ 7 years, 168 forecasts○ Covers El Niño and La
Niña events○ Years of low ice extent
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S2S Prototype experimentsü Prototype 5:
• CICE6 ice model • Fractional grid for atm
ü Prototype 6: • GFSv16 physics with 127L • CMEPS Mediator
✘ Prototype 7: • GEFS reanalysis for IC• Noah-MP Land model• Mushy ice thermo • uGWD, NSST• MERRA2 Aerosol clim.
✘ Prototype 8: • Marine JEDI DA for IC• Physics tuning https://github.com/ufs-community/ufs-weather-model
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Sea Ice Extent (P3)
Arct
ic
Data Source : NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 3 (https://nsidc.org/data/g02202/versions/3)
backup
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Next Generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (NG-GODAS)● Mainly driven by EMC/CPC/JCSDA-JEDI-SOCA teams
➤ DA system: JEDI Sea Ice Ocean Coupled Assimilation System (SOCA)➤ UFS DATM-MOM6-CICE6 DA 40 year reanalysis production run (1979-2019)➤ Comprehensive JEDI-based marine observation database➤ NSIDC L3 sea ice concentration data: 1979-2003 ➤ EMC L2 sea ice concentration data: 2003-2019
● Improved sea ice extents in both hemispheres: compared against observation● Leads to better estimation of total ice volumes: in decadal time scales● Consistent and reasonable analysis statistics maintained for the 40 year run:
observation-minus-model/background/analysis
NG-GODAS 40 Year Reanalysis
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NG-GODAS 40 Year ReanalysisSea ice DA statistics: observation minus model (free run, analysis background, and analysis)
● Demonstrates the JEDI-based DA capability for the sea ice ocean coupled model system: UFS DATM-MOM6-CICE6
backup
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WorkflowBasic Principles:● UFS
➤ Unified, not Unitary, balance of focus and diversity➤ Modular tools versus “one size fits all”
● Start from (functional) requirements, not solutions➤ Software engineering perspective➤ System engineering perspective
Outcomes of discussion:● One size does not fit all (latency versus resource use)● “Matrix” of elements, with modular library approach
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Systems engineeringCritical efficiency aspects vary per application● For rapidity cycling systems, latency is likely to be the critical
factor➤ RRFS with DA step ?
● For slowly cycling systems, efficient use of assigned resources is likely the key efficiency factor ➤ GFS with single DA step ?➤ “Offline” product generation vs. model run !
XImplications of this for Unification:● Use shared common elements to generate a small set of
workflows
Workflow
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The
“Lib
rary
”
Input processing Initialization /DA Model run Product Generation
Program(code config.)
code / repository management standards same for all
Obs processing IODA, restart files, etc.
Stand alone DA configuration
Stand alone model config. UPP, ensemble
processing tools, etc. Integrated DA / Model config.
“script” Standard execution environment for each element above, engineered to allow for stringing individual elements together
Run config. Standardized naming conventions for configuration of all “scripts”Automate combining configurations for scripts when used together
Functional scheduler
Workflows tailored for application / experimentWorkflow is a sequence of “library” elements
New capabilities are introduced as library elementsUFS selects community OS Scheduler
OS schedulerNCO adopts UFS scheduler, or EMC “translates” between schedulers
The “matrix view” of the workflow is a simplification to allow visualization. In order to implement this high-level vision, the next step is to develop a comprehensive analysis of all tasks (both
functional and developmental) associated with it
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Organizing R2O / I2O
This is the next step following the Organizing Research to Operations report from 2018● We are developing
➤ a three-part report,u Assumptions, Best Practices, Requirements and
Constraintsu Describing the processu Roles, Responsibilities and Expectations
➤ With a shared preamble, and ➤ access to many existing pieces of documentation
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Part I, content
This is not a conventional report, but rather a gathering place of basic principles that have been discussed for yearsContent:● Purpose and scope● Assumptions, and requirements and constraints● Best practices● Managing risk● Desired outcomes
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Part II, content Use case Describes Stage / Gate
1.Implementation in operations at NCO
Describe the general process of transitioning an implementation from EMC to NCO
4,5
2.GFS v16 implementation (2021)
Example of an actual implementation, including test plans and metrics.
(3),4,5
3.GEFS v12 implementation (2020)
Example of an actual implementation, including test plans and metrics. Showing differences in plans for different global model implementations.
(3),4,5
4.The annual HWRF operational upgrade cycle
Non-global operational implementation, showing differences with previous 2 use cases. Showing process with overlapping development and implementation cycles.
3,4,5
5.NGGPS selection of the FV3 dynamical core
Example of a “revolutionary” change, focusing on the selection of the new dycore
2,3
6.Prototyping coupled models
Incremental testing and development of the prototype coupled global UFS application
(2),3
7.GEFS v12 reanalysis and reforecast production (2020)
Example of a non-tradition “implementation” with high relevance for operational applications
Not defined / relevant
8.Statistical post processing Example of implementation that does not include the a core model upgrade, and therefore may not follow all steps in example 1.
3,4,(5)
9.A lower RL example Generic description of what is expected with lower maturity projects
1,2,(3)
10.Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
Example of a new infrastructure introduced in the UFS, with different definition of Stage 5
2,3,5
11.NOPP project on operational wind wave model improvement
Example of a project outside of the UFS that resulted in operational implementations at NOAA through UFS shared code (pre-UFS)
All
Item Subject Status and Action Items
5.2.1 Supported code releases Some Applications of the UFS have been formally released to the public with appropriate support (e.g., MRW App 1.0 and SRW App 1.0). The UFS community needs to:1.Expand this to providing releases for all Applications.2.Address scheduling and resourcing releases.
5.2.2 Graduate Student Tests (GSTs)
GSTs have been used to test, illustrate and document the quality of initial releases of Applications. The UFS community needs to1.Formalize its approach to using GSTs.2.Address resourcing GSTs
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Part III, content
Schema'cadaptedfrom‘DescribingR2OInterface’byUFS-SC,SIPWGs
ForecastPrio
ri,es
UFS-SCInformsForecastPriori,estoProgramOffices
TypesofR2OTransi0ons:AsoutlinedbyUFSSCandSIPWGs
Systemsleveltransi,ons-AmajoraspectoftheUFSisselectedfromacommunity-basedmodelrepository.Rela0velyinfrequentevent-Occurswhenanewapplica0onisbroughtin-oraspartofalong-termstrategytoaddressabasicmodelshortcoming.E.g.,Introduc0onofFV3dynamicalcore.Timelinefortransi0on-~5yearsApplica,onleveltransi,ons-Significantchangestoamodelcomponent-E.g.,advancingAtmosphericmodelPhysics.Timeline-monthsto2years
Incrementalleveltransi,ons-Morefrequent.Targetnarrowchangestoanexis0ngopera0onalsystem.Canbescien0fic,technical,and/orengineeringimprovements.E.g.,Inves0ga0onofsensi0vityoftheforecasttogrid-scalemixingparameteriza0ons.Rela0velyless0meconsuming.
T2O
ModelbiasesCustomerrequestsScienceques,ons
Use case Describes Stage / Gate
1.Inside NOAA:(UFS-R2O project)
The present processes inside of NOAA (the traditional NOAA Funnel)
All
2.NOAA FOs(JTTI)
NOAA funding a broader community to help develop the UFS
(2), 3, (4)
3.External Contributions(WW3 unstructured grids)
A project that started outside of NOAA that was adopted by NOAA operations at later Stages
(3),4,5
4.Bypassing NOAA(NOPP wave model development)
Work that is done with the UFS or component models that does not directly touch opun NOAA
N/A
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Example Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
1: Inside NOAA NOAA senior leadership makes final decisions with input from Subject Matter Experts and Stakeholders1.Focus on NOAA Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and Stakeholders (e.g., MEG evaluations)2.Input from broader community (focus on stakeholders)3.Driven by metrics and test plans with community input4.Both for individual projects and prioritization between proposed / available project
2: NOAA FOs (R2O) 1.Projects: focus is on well-defined individual projects, with relatively short period of performance, reducing gatekeeping to establishing final RL (suggested by PI, confirmed by POC of receiving office)2.Prioritization: NOAA defines scope of projects in FO
3.Prioritization: proposals are peer reviewed with peers from the broad community
3: External contributions 1.Presently outside of the scope of the UFS, with respect to resourcing, prioritization and validation of Gates passed.2.In many cases relying on UFS / component model code management.
Same as in Example 1.
4: Bypassing NOAA Generally the same as in Example 3 Generic benefits such as code stability and efficiency and minor tools are achieved without formal governance, but depend on code management.
Part III, content Example Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
1: Inside NOAA
2: NOAA FOs (R2O)
3: External contributions
4: Bypassing NOAAUFS–SC as “clearinghouse” for assigning Stages and managing
Gates for the broad UFS comunity
Table 5.2.1: Stage focus of Funnel examples; Darker colors identify stronger focus. Green identifies NOAA
focus, Yellow identifies external to NOAA focus.
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