an introduction to hkex usd/cnh futures
TRANSCRIPT
AN INTRODUCTION TO HKEX USD/CNH FUTURES
Octoberr 2016
For Interactive Brokers Webinar Only
FIC Product Development HKEX
HKEX USD/CNH FUTURES
MARKET OVERVIEW
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HKEX USD/CNH Futures – Leading Market Share World‘s most active CNH futures market with the largest trading volume and open interest Competitive spreads throughout all 8 contract months, especially long-dated Diverse participations from different users, including hedgers and professional investors in the region 8 Market Makers include BOC, HSBC, ICBC, DBS, BAML, Bank Sinopac, Virtu Financial and Haitong
Source: HKEX, SGX, Taifex and CME’s websites Note: W1= 1st week in 2016 YTD: year to date as of 30 Jun 2016
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Open Interest (2016 YTD)
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SGX
TaifexCME
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Jan 2016 Jan 2016
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HKEX’s USD/CNH Futures: World’s Most Liquid
Market Makers
32%
Non Market Makers
68%
HKEX USD/CNH Futures: World’s Most Liquid
US$29mn US$57mn
US$83mn US$106mn
US$219mn
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1
Source: HKEX, as of 30 Jun 2016
Average Daily Volume (Notional value)
2016 YOY 2x+
Source: HKEX, as of 31 Dec 2015
Market Player Breakdown
Turnover of US$771mn on 11 Feb, 2nd All-Time High
AHFT All-Time Record (US$200mn) on 3 Jun16
Open Interest record of US$3.2bn on 5 Feb
3 Straight Months of New ADV Record – Dec15, Jan16 & Feb16
2016 Records
AHFT: After Hour Futures Trading
Onshore Retails Offshore Retails
Prop Trading Firms FI Prop Desks
SMEs Corporate Treasury Import/ Export Corps
Hedge Funds QDII Mutual Funds Asset Managers
Large Corporate
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HKEX USD/CNH Futures: Market Player Analysis
Major Players in the Market
8 Market Makers
Active Traders
Mainland Brokers
International Brokers
Growing Market Segments
Mainland Corporates
Banks
Experienced/Sophisticated Individuals (HK & Mainland)
Proprietary Trading Firms
4Q 2012
2015
Market Makers
62%
Non Market Makers
38%
Market Makers
32% Non Market Makers
68%
Market makers vs. Non-market makers (in terms of contract volume)
5 Source: HKEX
6
Introduction: What is a Currency Futures Contract?
At Initiation RMB6.4500
3 Months Later At Maturity
RMB6.4500
USD1
Today
Buyers & sellers agree to trade an asset at a future date, for a price agreed today
Principal Exchange No Principal Exchange
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Introduction of HKEX USD/CNH Futures: Capital Efficiency
Min. Fluctuation 0.0001 (1 pip)
RMB10 (0.0001 x 100,000)
Initial Margin *
RMB17,010
About
40xLeverage
Contract Size USD100,000
(~RMB660,000)
* Margin rate as of 1 August 2016 Trading futures involves the risk of loss. Please refer to the disclaimer for the Risks of Trading Futures.
8
Introduction of HKEX USD/CNH Futures: Forward vs. Futures Contract
HKEX Futures OTC Forward
Risk management tool
Physical settlement
No credit limit required from banks
Central matching
Central counterparty clearing
Standardised contract
Better than general retail rate ?
Ease of trading ?
9
Key Contract Features of HKEX USD/CNH Futures
Bid-Ask Prices
Bank of China (HK) Bank Sinopac Virtu HSBC BAML ICBC DBS Haitong International
Block Trade Bid-Ask Prices
Provide Prices
Market Makers are obliged to provide two-way prices on screen
List of Market Makers (8)
Key Terms Contract Size: US$ 100,000 per contract Quotation: RMB per USD (e.g. RMB 6.6255 per USD) Contract Month(8): Spot month, next 3 calendar months, next 4 quarter months Last Trading Day: Usually third Monday Final Settlement: Principal exchange on third Wednesday
• Price and execution certainty for size over US$5mil • Privately negotiated • Reduction of counter-party risk
10 10
USD/CNH Futures
Contract Size US100,000
Price Quotation RMB per USD (e.g. 6.6255) Tick Value RMB 10.00 Settlement Methodology
Delivery of US dollars by the Seller and payment of the Final Settlement Value in RMB by the Buyer
Contract Months 8 contract months (Spot, next 3 calendar months and next 4 calendar quarter months) Final Settlement Price TMA CNH Spot Rate at 11:30am Min. Fluctuation RMB 0.0001 (4 decimal places)
Trading Hours 9:00am to 4:30pm (T session) and 5:15pm to 11:45pm (T+1 session), Hong Kong Time
(Expiring contract month closes at 11:00 am on the Last Trading Day)
Final Settlement Day The third Wednesday of the Contract Month
Last Trading Day Two Hong Kong Business Days prior to the third Wednesday of the Contract Month
Holiday Schedule According to Hong Kong holiday schedule
Information Vendor Codes
Bloomberg: UCAA CRNCY CT <GO>
Thomson Reuters: 0#HCUS:
Initial Margin RMB 17,010 (as of 1 Aug 2016)
Exchange Fee RMB 8.00
Block Threshold 50 contracts (US$5m)
HKEX USD/CNH Futures Contract Specification
HKEX USD/CNH FUTURES
OPERATIONAL DETAILS
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LTD Final Settlement Day
After 14:30
LTD + 1 By 09:15 By 09:15
LTD - 1 By 09:15
Buy 1 spot month contract, @ RMB 6.3011
Day
-end
Pro
cess
ing
Afte
r 18:
45
CQ :
RMB 6.3010
VA loss : 6.3010 - 6.3011
- 0.0001 X 100,000* = - RMB 10
Assume Margin Requirement# :
- RMB 20,412
Final Settlement Price: RMB 6.3000
Underlying Price @ market close :
RMB 6.2980
VA loss: 6.3000 - 6.3010
- 0.0010 X 100,000* = - RMB100
Delivery P/L Margin (DR): 6.2980 - 6.3000
- 0.0020 X100,000*
= - RMB 200^
RMB payment obligations Net shortfall Final Settlement Value 630,000 Margin release – 20,412 Delivery P/L margin release – 200^
RMB 609,388
Clearing House Collects RMB 20,422 (RMB 10 + RMB 20,412)
Clearing House Collects RMB 300 (RMB 100 + RMB 200^)
Clearing House Collects RMB 609,388
Upon receipt of withdrawal request from Participant, Clearing House releases the USD delivery of USD 100,000 to Participant’s bank account
Set C
Q
~18:
00
Tra
ding
Hou
rs
(09:
00 –
16:
30)
~11:15
CQ – Closing Quotation LTD – Last Trading Day VA – Variation Adjustment
* Contract size = USD 100,000 # Margin rate (RMB17,010) as of 1 Aug 2016, with spot month charge (20% of full rate) included, if applicable ^ Losses arising from the Delivery P/L margin will be added to and collected as Clearing House margin payable The indicated time is referred to as Hong Kong time
USD delivery USD100,000
Final Settlement Process for Buyer (for illustration purpose only)
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Final Settlement Process for Seller (for illustration purpose only)
LTD Final Settlement Day
After 14:30
LTD + 1 By 09:15
LTD - 1 By 09:15
Sell 1 spot month contract,
@ RMB 6.3011
Day
-end
Pro
cess
ing
Afte
r 18:
45
CQ :
RMB 6.3010
VA gain : 6.3011 - 6.3010 0.0001
X 100,000* = + RMB 10
Assume Margin Requirement# :
- RMB 20,412
Final Settlement Price: RMB 6.3000
Underlying Price @ market close :
RMB 6.2980
VA gain: 6.3010 - 6.3000 0.0010
X 100,000*
= + RMB 100
Delivery P/L Margin (CR): 6.3000
- 6.2980 0.0020
X100,000* = + RMB 200^
RMB receivable Final Settlement Value 630,000 Margin release + 20,412^ RMB 650,412
Clearing House Collects RMB 20,402 ( - RMB10 + RMB 20,412)
Clearing House Collects USD 100,000
Upon receipt of withdrawal request from Participant, Clearing House releases the RMB payment of RMB 650,412 to Participant’s bank account
Set C
Q
~18:
00
Tra
ding
Hou
rs
(09:
00 –
16:
30)
~11:15
CQ – Closing Quotation LTD – Last Trading Day VA – Variation Adjustment
USD delivery obligation USD100,000
After 14:30 Upon receipt of withdrawal request from Participant, Clearing House releases the VA gain and Margin (Cr) , i.e. RMB 300 (RMB 100 + RMB 200^) to Participant’s bank account
* Contract size = USD 100,000 # Margin rate (RMB17,010) as of 1 Aug 2016, with spot month charge (20% of full rate) included, if applicable ^ Profits arising from the Delivery P/L margin will be offset against Clearing House margin payable The indicated time is referred to as Hong Kong time
HKEX USD/CNH FUTURES PRODUCT APPLICATIONS
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15
USD/CNH Futures Jun-2016 Contract (After-Hours Session on 3 June)
6.5300
6.5400
6.5500
6.5600
6.5700
6.5800
6.5900
6.6000
6.6100
17:00:00 18:25:00 19:20:00 20:15:00 21:05:00 21:55:00 22:45:00 23:35:00
美元兌人民幣 期貨價格 美元兌人民幣 即期匯率
Trading Application – HKEX USD/CNH Futures
Source: HKEX, Bloomberg
3 June 2016 Total Profit RMB228,500
The US Non-Farm Payroll in May 2016 was far lower than expected, triggering market volatility
3 June 22:45 @6.5487 Close position Futures price fell by 0.0457 (Tick value: RMB 10) Profit RMB228,500
3 June 20:[email protected] Sell 50 contracts
The hypothetical case study is for illustration only and does not include transaction costs. If USD/CNH exchange rate moves to the opposite direction, investors could suffer losses.
USD/CNH Futures Price USD/CNH Spot Rate
Hong Kong time
16
Hedging Application Protection against RMB appreciation
The hypothetical case study is for illustration only and does not include transaction costs. If USD/CNH exchange rate moves to the opposite direction, the corporate could suffer losses.
RMB0.22m profit on USD/CNH futures covers RMB0.22m loss due to RMB appreciation
A Mainland Chinese company purchases overseas USD-denominated commodities and anticipates RMB to appreciate against USD in the next few months.
The company coverts RMB6.5m to USD1m (@6.5) and purchases commodities overseas
The company sells 10 USD/CNH futures contracts @6.5230
1. The company sells the commodities overseas and receives USD1.1m;
2. RMB appreciates 3% against USD to 6.3 3. The company converts USD1.1m to RMB6.93m and
makes a RMB0.43m profit (less than the RMB0.65m had the exchange rate remained unchanged @6.5)
The company closes its USD/CNH futures position @6.3030 and makes a RMB0.22m profit.
Now
Strategy
Later
HKEX EUR/CNH, JPY/CNH, AUD/CNH AND CNH/USD FUTURES
CONTRACT DETAILS
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18
EUR/CNH Futures
JPY/CNH Futures
AUD/CNH Futures
CNH/USD Futures
Contract Size
EUR50K JPY6,000K AUD80K RMB300K
Price Quotation
RMB per EUR (e.g. 6.8028)
RMB per 100 JPY (e.g. 5.5923)
RMB per AUD (e.g. 4.6942)
USD per 10 RMB (e.g. 1.5288)
Tick Value RMB5 RMB6 RMB8 USD3
Settlement Cash settled in RMB Cash settled in USD
Contract Months
4 contract months (Spot month, next month and first two calendar quarter months)
8 contract months
Reference Benchmark
A cross rate calculated from WM/Reuters Intraday Spot Rates at 11:00am and TMA USDCNY(HK) Spot Rate at 11:30am
TMA USDCNY(HK) Spot Rate at 11:30am
Minimum Fluctuation
RMB 0.0001 (4 decimal places) USD 0.0001
Trading Hours
9:00am to 4:30pm (T session) and 5:15pm to 11:45pm (AHFT session), Hong Kong time
Last Trading Day
Two Hong Kong Business Days prior to the third Wednesday of the Contract Month
AUD/CNH Australia emerged as one of China’s largest
trade partners in commodities
AUD offers diversification benefits through its strong link with commodity prices
EUR/CNH EU largest trade partner to China; China
2nd largest trade partner to EU Divergence between fiscal / monetary policy
of US & Europe. Risk management against ECB policies
JPY/CNH World’s 3rd most traded currency Pair trading on precious metals Risk management against BOJ policies
CNH/USD (i.e. inverse style)
Margining & settlement in USD Cash settlement reduces operational burden Smaller notional for retail participation Trading opportunities with existing
USD/CNH futures
New CNH Futures – Launched on 30 May 2016
19
New CNH Futures – Launched on 30 May 2016
Cost Saving • No Levy for All Currency Futures
• No Exchange Fee for the First 6 Months
Price Transparency
• Real-time prices available on HKEX website and other popular information vendors
Block Trade • Liquidity Providers to Facilitate Large Size Quotation
(Min. Size: c.US$2.5million)
• No Bilateral Credit Line Required
Leverage • Margin basis; Around 2-4% of notional amount
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How To Use Additional RMB Currency Futures
Add Value to Multi-
Currency Portfolios
Correlation / Covariance
Play between RMB Pairs
Pair Trading and Commodity Plays
(e.g. AUD)
Capture Policy Changes (ECB/BOJ)
& Macro News Release
Hedge for Own Treasury Inventory
(e.g. EUR, JPY, AUD)
OTHER FIC INITIATIVES
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FX Product Roadmap
Cash settled, notional ~US$50,000 1) EUR/CNH 2) JPY/CNH 3) AUD/CNH 4) CNH/USD
30 May 2016 September/October 2016
CNH Currency Index Futures
22
Phase I – Launched Phase II – Subject to SFC Approval
2012
Physically settled, notional US$100,000
USD/CNH Currency Futures – Launched
Additional RMB Currency Futures
RMB Currency Options
First RMB Currency Futures
23
Currency Products
RMB Currency Products
Currency Futures
Currency Options *
Currency Index *
Currency Index
Futures*
USD/CNH (Physically settled)
CNH/USD, EUR/CNH, AUD/CNH, JPY/CNH (Cash settled)
More new pairs to come
USD/CNH (Physically settled)
EUR/CNH, JPY/CNH, AUD/CNH (Cash settled)
TR/HKEX RXY indices
Launched
To be launched
* Subject to SFC approval
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DISCLAIMER TMA’s Spot USD/CNY(HK) Fixing https://www.tma.org.hk/en_market_info.aspx The Fixing which serves as the benchmark for market exchange rate of USD against CNY(HK) at 11:00 a.m. Hong Kong time is determined by averaging the middle quotes after excluding the highest two quotes and lowest two quotes from the 18 Contributing Banks. The Spot USD/CNY(HK) Fixing is published at around 11:15 a.m. Hong Kong time each business day (excluding Saturdays). Thomson Reuters is the calculating agent for the fixing. Thomson Reuters RICs <CNHFIX=>; Thomson Reuters pages <CNHFIX>. The following disclaimers and copyright notice regarding information provided on the Treasury Markets Association's website: a. The price fixings and reference rates in this website are provided with delays for general information purposes. While the Treasury Markets Association (TMA) will make all reasonable efforts to ensure a continuous, accurate and timely service, the TMA and other data providers make no warranties, representations or undertakings, expressed or implied by law or otherwise, in relation to the price fixings and reference rates and are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or losses caused by disruptions in the service or late publication of the daily rates or inaccuracy of the daily rates or otherwise arising from the use of or reliance on the price fixings and reference rates. By viewing or downloading these rates, you implicitly accept this disclaimer and agree to its terms. b. TMA shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any use or reliance on any of the information provided on its website. c. The content available on this website, including but not limited to all text, graphics, drawings, diagrams, photographs and compilation of data or other materials, are protected by copyright. TMA is the owner of all copyright works contained in this website. The information or part of it may be re-disseminated or reproduced provided the source of the information is acknowledged. WM/Reuters Intraday Spot Rates The WM/Reuters Intraday Spot Rates are provided by The World Markets Company plc (“WM”) in conjunction with Reuters. WM shall not be liable for any errors in or delays in providing or making available the data contained within this service or for any actions taken in reliance on the same, except to the extent that the same is directly caused by its or its employees’ negligence Risks of Trading Futures Futures involve a high degree of risk. Losses from futures trading can exceed your initial margin funds and you may be required to pay additional margin funds on short notice. Failure to do so may result in your position being liquidated and you being liable for any resulting deficit. You must therefore understand the risks of trading in futures and should assess whether they are right for you. You are encouraged to consult a broker or financial advisers on your suitability for futures trading in light of your financial positions and investment objectives before trading. The information contained in this document is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, invitation or recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts or other products or to provide any investment advice or service of any kind. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by individual investors. This document is not directed at, and is not intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (“HKEX”), Hong Kong Futures Exchange Limited (“HKFE”) (together, the “Entities”, each an “Entity”), or any of their affiliates, or any of the companies that they operate, to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. No section or clause in this document may be regarded as creating any obligation on the part of any of the Entities. Rights and obligations with regard to the trading, clearing and settlement of any futures contracts effected on HKFE shall depend solely on the applicable rules of HKFE and the relevant clearing house, as well as the applicable laws, rules and regulations of Hong Kong. Although the information contained in this document is obtained or compiled from sources believed to be reliable, neither of the Entities guarantees the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of the information or data for any particular purpose, and the Entities and the companies that they operate shall not accept any responsibility for, or be liable for, errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the information or for the consequences thereof. The information set out in this document is provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis and may be amended or changed. It is not a substitute for professional advice which takes account of your specific circumstances and nothing in this document constitutes legal advice. Neither of the Entities shall be responsible or liable for any loss or damage, directly or indirectly, arising from the use of or reliance upon any information provided in this document.