An integrated platform for air quality forecasting

assessment and policy user support

in Poland

Jacek W. Kaminski

Department of Atmospheric and Climate Modelling

Outline

• An integrated platform

• Policy support (new legislation introduced in 2018)

• Emission scenarios assessment

• Cooperation in Europe

• Capacity development

Modelling – Motivation

• To develop a state-of-the-art multiscale chemical-dynamical model of the atmosphere that will be used to :

• Study atmospheric chemistry in the context of air quality and climate change on urban, regional and global scales

• Facilitate chemical weather forecasting and data assimilation of chemical species

• Provide simulated atmospheric quantities (model atmosphere) for instrument design and retrieval algorithm testing

• To share the developed modelling system with other researchers, encouraging collaboration and training

The GEM model

Global Environmental Multiscale model

1. Highly flexible domain• Global

• Regional – i.e. NA, EU, Arctic

• Local – i.e. urban scale dx=250m

2. Weather and climate applications

3. Numerical efficiency and adaptation to new computational platforms

Model components and applications

• Transport processes• Chemical and aerosol processes specific to

• Air quality and anthropogenic emissions• Troposphere• Stratosphere & Mesosphere

• Air quality forecasting – Copernicus Services• Air quality assessment• Air quality episode studies• Environmental impact assessment of new technologies • Climate simulations

• Climate change adaptation scenarios • Impact of aviation transport on the atmosphere

0.1 deg 0.025deg

Cascade from a global variable domain to 1km LAM

From global to LAM

Air Quality Modelling - policy support

Institute of Environmental Protection is responsible for modelling to support air quality policy for Poland

– new law introduced in 2018• Annual assessment (46 zones, including 30 urban areas)

• Transboundary transport assessment

• Representativeness of monitoring stations

• 5-year assessment for zone classification

• Decision support concerning National Air Quality Improvement Plan

• Operational air quality forecasting

Emission scenarios assessment

• Impact of electromobility development in Poland on AQ (2017)

• Analysis of the NEC Directive impact on AQ exposure in Poland and changes in transboundary transport

• Impact of GEOTERMIA Podhalańska S.A. on reduction of high pollution in Zakopane (geothermal household heating)

Relative change

[%] of NO2

concentrations in

“fast growth”

scenario as

compared to 2015

Emission reduction outside PL - NEC2017 2025 2030

A significant impact of emission reduction in other EU countries on air quality in Poland

Annuala average PM2.5 concentrations

Cooperation in Europe

• CAMS_50 Regional Production• 4-day operational forecast for EU

• 10 km over EU, up to 5 km

• The day-before analysis + interim and validated reanalysis

• FAIRMODE (Forum on Air Quality modelling in Europe)

• Bilateral cooperation with neighbour countries (source attribution)

Application of satellite observations

Verification of sources and emission inventories

Application of satellite observations

CAMS_regional column

26 July 2018

TROPOMI retrieval based on

CAMS_regional profiles

CAMS_50 Regional production

• GEM-AQ is one of two additional models in CAMS_50

• Setup consistent with the operational requirements (IFS, C-IFS forcing, emissions TNO-MACCIII + GFAS)

CAMS_50 Regional production

• Hindcast experiment from 1.06.2015 to 31.05.2016

• Validation using EEA measurements for O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5

iAREA – modelling and observationsimpact of Absorbing aerosols on Radiative forcing in the

European Arctic

• Global domain: • 356 x 320 grid points• 2.5 x 2.5 deg max. resolution

• Uniform core: • 200 x 200 grid points• 0.15 x 0.15 deg

• Model timestep 450 sec

• 28 hybrid levels

• Model top at 10 hPa

Synoptic context of aerosol transport episodes

30.04-5.05 – dust transport event at 700 hPa

Capacity development

• Development of an integrated environmental modelling and assessment platform (critical loads, health exposure)

• Application of satellite observations (emission verification, data assimilation, inverse modelling) • Sentinel 5p

• Sentinel 4 and 5

• Future plans• National model for regulatory purposes• Climate services

The Team

Joanna Struzewska

Paweł Durka

Paulina Jagiełło

Aneta Gienibor

Marcin Kawka

Grzegorz Jeleniewicz

Piotr Drzewiecki

Thank You