an independent review of tipsters and betting systems · to be an each way goldmine! .....17 the...

Welcome to October’s WRWM.

In a packed newsletter this month, The Statmankicks things off by looking at an obvious, yet often

overlooked, key component to a horse’s chances ofwinning: the jockey! And some of the returns oninvestment uncovered by the biggest brain in bettingsuggest nice profits to be made this season.

As this is the beginning of the Jumps season, Ipleaded with the guys at www.bettertipster.co.uk toshare some of the findings from their recent tour ofthe prominent jumps stables, and they have agreed toshare their “dirty half-dozen” with you. Stick thesenames in your notebook immediately!

We follow this with an update on these threetipsters; www.bettertipster.co.uk, www.price-power.com and www.horsebettinganalyst.com,alongside a warning about a new service that simply

refuses to share its past results... remember thepower is with you to refuse services which are lessthan transparent! I show you the ideal to look forwith tipsters and offer up www.betting-tips-uk.comas an example of what you don’t want to see in aprospective service.

The three tipsters mentioned above take a long-term view and that is the part of the bettor’smentality that Andrew David lauds above all else.Not only does he “fix your betting head”, he alsoprovides a very interesting and potentially lucrativeLucky 15 football bet in his informative article.

Andrew’s article is sub-headed “You only singwhen you’re winning”. Well, I thought I would try“singing when I’m losing” with a new lay system…but it seems to have become a rather goodwin/place-only backing system! I share my initialthoughts with you here.

And no newsletter would be complete withoutour systems master, the Patriarch, who this monthlooks at staking plans. My look at Gail Howard’slottery software will have to wait until November(and no, I did not win the £110 million using herstrategy on this occasion!).

Enjoy!

P.S. You’ll find my usual videos over on the WRWMResource page(www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk/resourcepage)and don’t forget to check out the What Biz Oppwebsite which is packed full of constantly updatedcontent to keep you busy until next month:www.whatbizopp.com

The Statman Presents

How Being Jockey-AwareCan Net You 130% ROIIf I were to ask who you would rather have driving

you from A to B; Sebastian Vettel or Bert fromplease turn over

What Really Wins MoneyAn independent review of tipsters and betting systems

October 2011

In this issue:Jumps Racing Tips: BetterTipster’s Top 6 Horses toFollow This Jump Season ..............................11

Betting Psychology:On the Couch With Andrew David ................12

Tipster Update:When Choosing a Tipster Insist Upon These 3 Simple Checks ........................15

Laying Strategy: A Laying System That Turned Out to be an Each Way Goldmine! .......................17

The Patriarch presents: Simple Staking Plans That Deliver ................19

The Cash Master:Systems and Tipsters Update .........................20

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

next door, Sebastian Vettel would probably be yourman, it makes sense. At the time of writing, he isleading the F1 Championship, and at the minute isconsistently the fastest man on four wheels, he hasthe ability to get every last bit out of his car and topush both man and machine safely to their limits inorder to cross the finishing line first.

You may be wondering why I’m wittering onabout F1 racing – surely the Statman talks abouthorse racing? Well I do, but I wanted to use thisanalogy to make a point. Who would you want to becarrying your hard-earned cash to the finish line?Tony McCoy? Or the local Horse Riding School’sinstructor? If the F1 car is the race horse and the F1driver the jockey, you’ll start to see how instrumentalthe jockey is in getting the Horse over the finish linein first place. Admittedly, comparing McCoy to thelocal riding instructor may be a little extreme but thejockey really does make all the difference.

I often hear punters talking about form, weightfor age, weight of experience, change in class, agood run last time out…

Whatever happened to the one person that we’veput all our faith in to getting the horse over the finishline in the first place? For some reason many puntsjust ignore the person on top of the animal; the personcontrolling the speed of the gallop, the person pointingthe horse in the right direction, the person setting thehorse up correctly for each and every jump.

In the early days, when I was wet behind the earsand didn’t know one end of a race horse from theother, the gentleman who led me through the formanalysis minefield said to me. “One of the mostimportant factors when analysing a race is theperson on board.” I must admit that at the time Ijust assumed that all jockeys would – and could –bring the horse home in the same position, that onejockey couldn’t get any more out of a horse thananother. How wrong was I? The jockey’s ability canmean the difference between a winning bet and alosing bet. Of course it’s not the only factor to

consider but it is one of the most important, and itgoes without saying that we can use this single pieceof information to turn a profit.

Now, the trainers also know this, and just as withthe F1 drivers who drive better for one team thananother there are certain jockeys that ride better forone trainer than another. Also there are certainjockeys that the Trainer employs in very specificcircumstances: jockeys who they trust to follow therace plan, that know the horse well enough to makecritical split-second decisions, jockeys the trainerknows can bring home the bacon.

Although, technically, every horse in every raceshould be trying to win, some are trying harder thanothers. We are all aware of preparation runs, runs toreduce the handicap mark, etc. In somecircumstances the trainer may well place on board ajockey that they know won’t bring out the best in thehorse. Then all of a sudden there is a change injockey and a horse that appeared to have nodiscernable form comes out and wins at a goodprice. “Stable touches”, “trainer gambles” call themwhat you will, but the jockey can be a key factor inpinpointing these runners.

I have spoken about trainer / jockey combinationsbefore, so what I want to do in this article is take thelid off this factor and lay bare the facts and statistics,so that we, the everyday punter can profit.

Covering some old groundIf you are a regular reader you will already have

been presented with trainer/jockey combinations forvarious conditions. Now I would like you to indulgeme here, as looking at the straight combination is thebest starting point.

I am going to focus mainly on National Hunttrainers, with the National Hunt season being justaround the corner. However, initially, I’ll also lookat Flat racing as we still have a few weeks left of theFlat season and the All Weather is now starting toramp up for the winter.

2

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot beheld responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on

this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money,

Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.

Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2011

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

To make things easier to read and reference, whatI’ve done is separate out the combinations based onthe race type (Chase, Hurdle, Bumper, Flat [Turf]and All Weather) and for those combinations that areon the flat I’ve separated these by age (2, 3 or 4 and4+ year old races).

The more detailed analysis will focus solely onNational Hunt Trainers due to issues in presentingthe vast amount of information if all disciplines arecovered. As usual I have used the past 10 yearsworth of data covering UK racing only for myanalysis.

3please turn over

For more great betting ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.whatbizopp.com

Trainer Jockey Runs Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI TrainerStrike Rate

National Hunt Hurdle Races

Goldie J Lee G 103 22 21.4% 81.13 78.8% 8.7%

Twiston- Twiston-Davies N Davies S 120 22 18.3% 67.50 56.2% 13.6%

Haynes A B Scholfield N 78 13 16.7% 43.98 56.4% 8.8%

Lee R Johnson R 55 9 16.4% 49.32 89.7% 10.9%

Gollings S Thornton R 50 7 14.0% 26.00 52.0% 8.6%

Price R J Hutchinson W 51 7 13.7% 29.50 57.8% 7.1%

Carroll A Hutchinson W 205 28 13.7% 166.88 81.4% 7.2%

Bailey Caroline Messenger T 55 6 10.9% 39.25 71.4% 13.7%

Dickin R Kavanagh W 57 6 10.5% 36.83 64.6% 8.0%

Turner W G Lucey-Butler R 53 1 1.9% -46.00 -86.8% 7.7%

Snowden J E Jacob D 56 1 1.8% -49.00 -87.5% 6.2%

Webber P R McCarthy J A 57 1 1.8% -47.00 -82.5% 11.4%

Williams I Moloney P 65 1 1.5% -60.00 -92.3% 10.9%

National Hunt Chase Races

Longsdon C E De Giles Felix 66 18 27.3% 43.73 66.3% 12.5%

Smith S J Elsworth D 432 102 23.6% 181.02 41.9% 11.9%

Ewart J P L Haynes H 68 14 20.6% 28.55 42.0% 10.7%

Williams V Treadwell L 115 22 19.1% 147.42 128.2% 16.3%

Todhunter M Reveley J 58 11 19.0% 45.00 77.6% 9.5%

Reveley K G Reveley J 187 34 18.2% 96.75 51.7% 10.6%

Bowen P Moore J 62 9 14.5% 30.13 48.6% 13.8%

Powell B G Davies James 86 9 10.5% 67.68 78.7% 8.2%

Sherwood O McCarthy J A 68 4 5.9% -48.67 -71.6% 13.9%

Longsdon C E Siddall T 65 2 3.1% -51.50 -79.2% 12.5%

National Hunt Flat Races

Twiston-Davies N England D 56 16 28.6% 48.42 86.5% 13.6%

King A Tumelty G 92 18 19.6% 57.75 62.8% 14.5%

Howard Johnson J O’Regan D F 64 10 15.6% 27.63 43.2% 13.4%

Webber P R Doyle T 85 12 14.1% 36.25 42.6% 11.4%

Walton K McGrath R 57 8 14.0% 61.50 107.9% 8.8%

Mullins J W Kavanagh W 59 4 6.8% 61.00 103.4% 7.6%

Daly H D Bradburne M 53 3 5.7% -35.00 -66.0% 12.7%

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Scudamore M Scudamore T 88 3 3.4% -57.00 -64.8% 7.3%

Bealby C C Messenger T 53 1 1.9% -38.00 -71.7% 7.8%

Walford T Walford R 56 1 1.8% -48.00 -85.7% 10.1%

All Weather 2yo Races

Bin Suroor S Durcan T 72 35 48.6% 44.56 61.9% 23.8%

Bin Suroor S Dettori L 62 25 40.3% 12.08 19.5% 23.8%

Dascombe T G Kingscote R 123 29 23.6% 48.49 39.4% 12.2%

Hollinshead R Gibbons G 59 6 10.2% 38.50 65.3% 7.3%

Meehan B Dwyer Martin 62 3 4.8% -51.35 -82.8% 10.9%

Balding A M Keniry L P 59 2 3.4% -43.75 -74.2% 11.4%


Johnston M Fairley Greg 134 40 29.9% 10.31 7.7% 15.5%

Prescott M Sanders S 126 34 27.0% 4.84 3.8% 21.7%

Hannon R Hughes R 165 38 23.0% 51.04 30.9% 11.7%

Boyle J R Cosgrave P 74 17 23.0% 1.78 2.4% 9.5%

Balding A M Dwyer Martin 61 13 21.3% 27.82 45.6% 11.4%

Haggas W Jones Liam 57 12 21.1% 4.42 7.7% 16.2%

Harris R Morris Luke 61 9 14.8% 27.75 45.5% 7.6%


Knight W J Crowley Jim 52 15 28.8% 44.02 84.6% 10.6%

Hodges R J Baker G 63 17 27.0% 71.13 112.9% 7.5%

Ivory D K O’Reilly J 61 14 23.0% 49.00 80.3% 8.0%

Ffrench D Cray B 64 13 20.3% 59.25 92.6% 5.5%

Harris R Probert D 71 14 19.7% 49.38 69.5% 7.6%

Easterby M W Gibbons G 67 13 19.4% 48.88 72.9% 8.3%

Turnell A Catlin C 67 13 19.4% 80.63 120.3% 9.3%

Cowell R M H Catlin C 59 8 13.6% 64.50 109.3% 8.4%

Grayson Peter Keniry L P 124 2 1.6% -112.13 -90.4% 4.6%

Berry A Mathers P 65 0 0.0% -65.00 -100.0% 5.4%

Flat (Turf) 2yo Races

Beckett R M Sanders S 148 33 22.3% 169.01 114.2% 11.6%

Meehan B Ahern E 51 9 17.6% 29.12 57.1% 10.9%

Stubbs L Eaves T 67 11 16.4% 49.75 74.3% 8.3%

Hannon R Norton F 50 8 16.0% 37.20 74.4% 11.7%

Balding A M Fortune J 79 12 15.2% 54.20 68.6% 11.4%

Balding A M Keniry L P 127 15 11.8% 81.60 64.3% 11.4%

Elsworth D O’Neill Dane 51 6 11.8% 32.25 63.2% 11.0%

Easterby T Fentiman D 155 4 2.6% -114.00 -73.5% 9.6%

Moore J S Morris Luke 65 0 0.0% -65.00 -100.0% 7.5%

Easterby T Catlin C 83 0 0.0% -83.00 -100.0% 9.6%

4

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Flat (Turf) 3yo Races

Beckett R M Crowley Jim 103 26 25.2% 52.11 50.6% 11.6%

Haggas W Hills R 73 17 23.3% 29.78 40.8% 16.2%

Cecil H Mongan I 61 14 23.0% 26.53 43.5% 21.0%

Wall C Baker G 70 16 22.9% 29.13 41.6% 12.0%

Hills J Ahern E 83 13 15.7% 83.25 100.3% 8.6%

Channon M Harley M 53 8 15.1% 25.50 48.1% 10.3%

Given J G Fenton M 161 18 11.2% 70.75 43.9% 8.0%

Moore G L Baker G 56 2 3.6% -48.50 -86.6% 10.7%

Channon M Creighton E 115 3 2.6% -84.50 -73.5% 10.3%

Channon M Bowman J H 62 1 1.6% -56.00 -90.3% 10.3%

Flat (Turf) – 4yo Races

Bethell J D Gibbons G 68 15 22.1% 78.88 116.0% 7.4%

Moore G M Eaves T 63 13 20.6% 42.48 67.4% 9.3%

Burke K Mrs Elliott A 72 14 19.4% 56.73 78.8% 11.7%

Baugh B Guillambert J P 51 8 15.7% 40.00 78.4% 4.9%

Cox C G Morris Luke 64 10 15.6% 71.33 111.5% 10.1%

Gallagher J O’Shea T P 56 6 10.7% 95.00 169.6% 5.9%

Elsworth D Keniry L P 96 9 9.4% 68.75 71.6% 11.0%

Dunnett C A Turner Hayley 87 6 6.9% 55.00 63.2% 5.4%

Bradley J M O’Neill Dane 65 4 6.2% 54.00 83.1% 6.1%

Blanshard M Durcan T 56 3 5.4% 35.00 62.5% 5.9%

Nicholls D Eaves T 52 1 1.9% -46.50 -89.4% 10.0%

Howard Johnson J Eaves T 58 1 1.7% -55.75 -96.1% 13.4%

Goldie J Eaves T 59 1 1.7% -54.00 -91.5% 8.7%

Reveley K G Reveley J 63 0 0.0% -63.00 -100.0% 10.6%

5please turn over


As you can see there is a lot of data, and this isonly the best and worst! This covers 10 years worthof racing and only those trainer/jockey combinationsthat are the most profitable (or least profitable –those combinations to avoid or lay). I have alsoincluded each Trainer’s overall strike rate forcomparison.

There are some very interesting stats here.Working down the table:

In Hurdles races when N Twiston-Davies puts hisson, Sam, on board his overall strike rate isimproved but the family connection also produces a56% ROI.

At the other end of the scale the combinationWebber P R / McCarthy J A, reduces Webber’soverall strike rate from 11% to 2% with just a single

win from 57 races. In the Chase races, Williams V /Treadwell L have doubled Williams’ win strike rate,but here it’s the ROI that catches my eye, thiscombination in Chase races has an ROI of almost130%, that’s £1.30 profit for every £1 bet! Look outfor this combination in the coming months, there isdefinitely money to be made here!

In Bumper or National Hunt Flat races there aretwo combinations that I would have expected to beprofitable Scudamore M/ Scudamore T and WalfordT/ Walford R, however both combinations have verypoor records, in fact these combinations haveproduced just four winners from 144 races betweenthem.

Going deeper into the statsAs I touched on earlier, when a trainer changes

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Jockey, it is often a good indication of the trainer’s intention for that horse in that particular race. But, this isnot always the case; especially if the jockey employed in the horse’s last run is not the trainer’s stable jockeyand this jockey has to ride for their stable. Although this does happen it’s a lot harder to account for, and sofor ease of analysis I’ll overlook this factor.

Trainer Jockey Runs Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI TrainerStrike Rate


King A Change after 2 runs to Tumelty G 44 11 25.0% 72.25 164% 12.6%

Webber P R Change after 2runs to Doyle T 50 10 20.0% 51.00 102% 14.8%

Walton K Change to McGrath R 35 5 14.3% 67.00 191% 12.2%

Mullins J W Change after 2 runs to Kavanagh W 29 3 10.3% 81.00 279% 5.2%

Mullins J W Change to Kavanagh W 37 3 8.1% 73.00 197% 5.2%


Lee R Change after 2 runs to Thornton R 29 10 34.5% 31.50 109% 14.1%

Williams Nick Change to Jacob D 41 12 29.3% 48.25 118% 15.0%

Lavelle E C Change to Doyle J J 43 11 25.6% 47.67 111% 13.3%

Lee R Change to Poste C 36 8 22.2% 39.25 109% 10.9%

Williams V Change to Treadwell L 84 17 20.2% 151.08 180% 14.8%

Powell B G Change to Renwick W 31 4 12.9% 36.00 116% 5.9%

Powell B G Change to Davies James 44 5 11.4% 97.00 220% 7.2%

Johnson R Change to Johnson K 54 0 0.0% -54.00 -100% 5.2%


Goldie J Change to Lee G 77 17 22.1% 81.63 106% 14.2%

Twiston-Davies N Change after 2 runs to Brennan P J 51 10 19.6% 52.92 104% 13.9%

Williams Nick Change to Jacob D 46 9 19.6% 59.25 129% 15.0%

Price R J Change to Hutchinson W 36 6 16.7% 40.50 113% 13.6%

Carroll A Change to Hutchinson W 129 19 14.7% 187.75 146% 12.3%

Lavelle E C Change to Fehily N 28 4 14.3% 49.50 177% 18.5%

Bailey Caroline Change to Messenger T 29 4 13.8% 42.75 147% 9.0%

Hammond M Change to Keniry B 87 11 12.6% 92.88 107% 8.8%


Hollinshead R Change to Gibbons G 27 3 11.1% 48.50 180% 8.8%


Haggas W Change to Jones Liam 29 10 34.5% 29.08 100% 16.9%

Harris R Change to Morris Luke 26 4 15.4% 34.50 133% 8.1%

6

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09


Brittain C E Change to Callan N 37 10 27.0% 54.75 148% 15.4%

Hodges R J Change to Baker G 37 10 27.0% 64.88 175% 19.0%

Hiatt P W Change to Morris Luke 29 7 24.1% 30.83 106% 11.4%

Easterby M W Change to Gibbons G 49 10 20.4% 57.50 117% 13.6%

Turnell A Change to Catlin C 36 7 19.4% 62.38 173% 14.5%

Wigham M Change to Mackay N 31 6 19.4% 42.71 138% 12.7%

Jenkins J Change to Fenton M 26 5 19.2% 28.00 108% 15.4%

Quinn M Change to Dwyer Martin 31 5 16.1% 40.72 131% 6.3%

Cowell R M H Change toCatlin C 43 6 14.0% 64.00 149% 10.6%

Palling B Change to Probert D 33 4 12.1% 35.00 106% 8.0%

7please turn over


These are the most profitable combinations whenthere is just a plain change in jockey and when thejockey changes after two runs with the same jockey,so a horse has two consecutive runs with one jockeyand on the third run (today’s run) the trainer changesthe jockey. I hope that makes sense?

As we can see there are some very impressivestrike rates and profits from these changes. I

wouldn’t be able to give you all the data, not here,and not without upsetting Clive by giving himseveral hundred pages of stats! But one thing that Inoticed and wanted to pass on to you is that whenseveral trainers change jockeys to one particularjockey, that jockey being one Mr. A P McCoy, thenthe strike rates rocket through the roof, hold on toyour hats ladies and gentlemen…

Trainer Runs Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI


Henderson N 36 15 41.7% 0.74 2.0%


Pipe D 45 21 46.7% 17.28 38.4%

Knight H 29 12 41.4% 25.45 87.7%

Henderson N 47 19 40.4% 10.84 23.1%

Sherwood O 26 9 34.6% 6.63 25.5%

Williams V 43 13 30.2% 0.78 1.8%

O’Neill J J 114 25 21.9% 17.42 15.3%


Best J 42 17 40.5% 3.07 7.3%

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Elliott G 42 16 38.1% 6.42 15.3%

Henderson N 48 18 37.5% 27.79 57.9%

Moore G L 62 22 35.5% 29.72 47.9%

Henderson N 146 51 34.9% 15.93 10.9%

Bowen P 70 17 24.3% 15.27 21.8%

Powell B G 61 14 23.0% 15.75 25.8%

8

Forty percent plus strike rates! These resultsdidn’t make it into the above table because althoughprofitable, the return on investment (ROI), theamount you make per bet, is just too low when thereare so many others that give a better return. A PMcCoy is one of the top Jockeys – if not the topJockey – and the whole of the betting public knowthis, so if a trainer employs him to ride for them thebetting public blindly follows him. The result of thisis the SP of his mount is reduced (in some casessignificantly). This means that betting on McCoy onthis factor alone doesn’t represent any value. Thatsaid, these stats can still be put to good use andprofit with a little additional analysis.

Another area that trainers often exploit, and it’s anarea that often has the punter confused or at the veryleast wary, is the use of jockeys with allowances.Trainers will often change jockey, not because they arefocusing on the jockey’s ability, but because the jockeyhas an allowance. The allowance or ‘jockey claim’ is aspecified reduction in the weight the Jockey has tocarry, and applies to apprentices and amateurs,

theoretically to allow them to compete on a par withprofessional jockeys. So jockeys with an allowancecan be carrying significantly less weight than jockeyswith no allowance.

It goes without saying that the savvy trainer canmake very good use of this factor, and the bettingpublic will often stay away from a horse that has ajockey with an allowance in the thought that they arenot as “good” as the professional jockeys – justbecause a jockey is carrying an allowance, don’t beput off, there are some excellent jockeys that are stillin the allowance.

Now I want to have a quick look at changing toand from jockeys that either have or don’t have anallowance. So here I am looking at trainers that canutilise the jockey’s allowance in their race strategy.As such I will be looking at both changes to ajockey with an allowance from one without, andchanges to a Jockey with NO allowance from onethat carries an allowance, as I feel that both changesare worth some merit.

Trainer Allowance Runs Wins Strike Rate Profit ROI TrainerStrike Rate


Mullins J W With allowance 58 5 8.6% 93.0 160.3% 7.6%


Wade J With NO allowance 35 5 14.3% 41.0 117.1% 7.5%

Williamson L With NO allowance 32 4 12.5% 61.0 190.6% 4.0%

Lambe J J With NO allowance 26 3 11.5% 30.0 115.4% 5.6%

Powell B G With allowance 61 6 9.8% 81.8 134.2% 8.2%

Bowen P With NO allowance 61 4 6.6% -32.0 -52.5% 13.8%


Lee R With allowance 45 7 15.6% 75.3 167.2% 10.9%

Turner W G With NO allowance 26 4 15.4% 53.0 203.8% 7.7%

Gollings S With allowance 46 4 8.7% 49.0 106.5% 8.6%

Vaughan Tim With allowance 73 5 6.8% -37.5 -51.4% 15.0%

Sherwood O With NO allowance 95 5 5.3% -68.4 -71.9% 13.9%

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Powell B G With allowance 148 6 4.1% -95.0 -64.2% 8.2%

Mulholland N P With NO allowance 57 2 3.5% -50.0 -87.7% 7.6%

Tizzard C With NO allowance 58 2 3.4% -39.0 -67.2% 10.8%

Russell L With NO allowance 120 4 3.3% -76.3 -63.5% 8.5%

Sly P With NO allowance 65 2 3.1% -39.0 -60.0% 9.5%

Bailey K C With NO allowance 65 2 3.1% -45.0 -69.2% 12.3%

Chapman M C With NO allowance 50 1 2.0% -44.0 -88.0% 4.5%

Whillans A With allowance 58 1 1.7% -49.0 -84.5% 8.4%

Moffatt James With allowance 66 1 1.5% -61.0 -92.4% 5.0%

Whillans A With NO allowance 53 0 0.0% -53.0 -100.0% 8.4%


Evans P D With allowance 50 2 4.0% -38.0 -76.0% 8.6%


Chamings P R With NO allowance 27 7 25.9% 40.0 148.1% 7.8%

Easterby M W With NO allowance 51 12 23.5% 54.0 105.8% 8.3%

Feilden J With NO allowance 40 8 20.0% 51.5 128.8% 7.4%

Ffrench D With allowance 30 4 13.3% 49.5 165.0% 5.5%

Bradley J M With allowance 69 2 2.9% -33.0 -47.8% 6.1%

Jenkins J With NO allowance 63 1 1.6% -60.4 -95.8% 6.3%

Midgley P T With NO allowance 54 0 0.0% -54.0 -100.0% 6.9%

9please turn over


Here are the stats for trainers who change jockeysto and from those with and without an allowance. Inorder to get a good comparison of these stats theoverall strike rate is the overall strike rate for thetrainer covering all conditions.

Now some of these strike rates many not seemthat brilliant but in all cases where there is a positiveangle the trainer’s overall strike rate has doubled orthe ROI is over 100%, which gives us a goodindication of how profitable this angle is.

R Lee, for example, with Hurdles races increasesthe overall strike rate by 5% but shows a whopping75.3 point profit (163% ROI) when he changes from ajockey with no allowance to a jockey with anallowance. B G Powell is another trainer that follows a

similar pattern. James Moffatt however shows adifferent story; when the jockey is changed to one withan allowance, Moffatt’s strike rate drops to just 1.5%with just a single win from 66 runs. As we can see,there are trainers to follow and those to avoid when ajockey change introduces or removes an allowance.

And finallyWhen going through the stats there was one

factor that jumped out at me. I have considered thisfactor on numerous occasions in the past and whencoupled with the jockey on board it can indeed showus, potentially, what the trainer has planned. Thisfactor is the number of days since the horse lastraced (the small number after the horse’s name onthe racecard).

Trainer Days Jockey Runs Wins Strike Profit ROI TrainerRate Strike Rate


King A 1 – 5 Tumelty G 40 11 27.5% 76.3 190.6% 12.9%

Bealby C C 1 – 5 Messenger T 29 0 0.0% -29.0 -100.0% 0.0%

Grant C 1 – 5 McGrath R 29 0 0.0% -29.0 -100.0% 2.8%

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Walford T 1 – 5 Walford R 28 0 0.0% -28.0 -100.0% 18.2%

Williams V 1 – 5 Thomas S 26 0 0.0% -26.0 -100.0% 28.6%


Todhunter M 16 – 35 Reveley J 27 7 25.9% 45.5 168.5% 8.6%

Bealby C C 36 – 100 Messenger T 39 9 23.1% 59.5 152.6% 6.9%

Reveley K G 6 – 15 Reveley J 41 9 22.0% 45.7 111.5% 12.6%

Hammond M 6 – 15 Keniry B 29 6 20.7% 35.5 122.4% 9.7%

Moore G M 36 – 100 Keniry B 38 0 0.0% -38.0 -100.0% 6.8%


Hobbs P 6 – 15 Brennan P J 29 8 27.6% 30.3 104.3% 19.8%

Murphy F 6 – 15 McDonald P J 28 7 25.0% 40.5 144.6% 13.3%

Williams V 101 – 365 Coleman A 53 12 22.6% 72.2 136.3% 13.3%

Haynes A B 16 – 35 Scholfield N 29 6 20.7% 55.2 190.4% 9.0%

Carroll A 36 – 100 Hutchinson W 34 7 20.6% 70.5 207.4% 7.2%

Murphy F 36 – 100 Russell D N 26 5 19.2% 31.0 119.2% 11.8%

Powell B G 16 – 35 Davies James 45 0 0.0% -45.0 -100.0% 8.8%

Grant C 36 – 100 McGrath R 43 0 0.0% -43.0 -100.0% 5.9%

O’Keeffe J 36 – 100 Harding B 35 0 0.0% -35.0 -100.0% 6.3%


Dascombe T G 16 – 35 Kingscote R 28 9 32.1% 53.5 191.1% 13.5%


Harris R 6 – 15 Morris Luke 26 6 23.1% 48.0 184.6% 9.8%


Ryan K A 6 – 15 Makin P 29 13 44.8% 32.0 110.2% 14.9%

Knight W J 16 – 35 Crowley Jim 31 10 32.3% 40.2 129.6% 13.2%

Carroll D 6 – 15 Tudhope D 61 17 27.9% 68.8 112.7% 9.4%

Fahey R 101 – 365 Hanagan P 33 9 27.3% 62.6 189.8% 10.9%

Shaw D 16 – 35 Mathers P 39 9 23.1% 55.3 141.9% 6.9%

Easterby M W 16 – 35 Gibbons G 31 7 22.6% 32.1 103.6% 8.6%

Harris R 16 – 35 Morris Luke 64 13 20.3% 84.0 131.3% 6.7%

Osborne J 6 – 15 Kelly S Old 47 0 0.0% -47.0 -100.0% 12.3%

Grayson Peter 16 – 35 Keniry L P 41 0 0.0% -41.0 -100.0% 3.2%

10

The table above shows the stats for thecombination of Trainer/ Jockey and the days sincelast race. The column “Days” is the number of dayssince the horse’s last race and the “Overall StrikeRate” is the trainer’s strike rate for all Horsesreturning to the track within the time bracketindicated by “Days”.

For example, if A King has a horse in a National

Hunt Flat race with G Tumelty on board returning tothe track within five days, then this combinationdoubles King’s overall strike rate for horsesreturning to the track within five days, and producesan ROI of 190%. Others include K A Ryan returninghis horse to the track in 6 to 15 days with P Makinon board for an All Weather 4yo race; here we canexpect a strike rate of 45% and again over 100%ROI. Of course, not all Trainer / Jockey

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

combinations are winning ones; there are enough atthe other end of the scale to keep the “Layers”happy also. The B G Powell/ James Daviescombination returning to the track within 16 to 35days with a Hurdler combination has yet to record asingle win in the last 10 years!

Jockeying for position...I hope this has given you some insight into

possible trainer intentions when they seem to chopand change jockeys for what appears to be noapparent reason. Not just who today’s jockey is butalso the last jockey on board – it all goes to showthat the Jockey IS A VERY IMPORTANT factorwhen looking at and analysing potential winners. So,until next time, and as always, punt profitably.

Jumps Racing Tips:

BetterTipster’s Top 6 Horses to Follow This Jumps SeasonRegular readers will know the high regard in

which I hold www.bettertipster.co.uk, so whentheir findings for this upcoming Jumps Season werereleased, I asked (very nicely) for permission toshare some of the horses that trainers hold in highregard and give you a heads up.

They agreed, with the proviso that I limit thenumber of horses I share with you. And so I haveselected the top 6 horses creating a real buzz in theirrespective yards.

Montbazon – Alan KingMontbazon is held in the highest regard by his

trainer and has been described as one of the yard’smost exciting prospects. The horse ran three timeslast year including the Aintree bumper where hefinished an unlucky second. Montbazon has endlessgears and can travel at any pace with ease whilstshowing a fantastic turn of foot when required. Thehorse has schooled beautifully at home but willprobably have one more bumper run before startingover the two mile hurdle races. Mr. King hasmassive hopes for him this season.

Spirit Son – Nicky HendersonThis high-class horse showed huge ability last

season, winning at Aintree and finishing second in

the Supreme Hurdle at Cheltenham. A step-up in triplooks on the cards for Spirit Son as he was ultraimpressive when winning over two miles four on hislast start at Aintree. It may be the case that thefurther he goes the better, it’s also pleasing to hearthat the horse will be kept over hurdles this season.We can’t think of any other horse that will beatSpirit Son over two miles four plus. No doubt hewill go off at a short price, but Spirit Son will take amassive amount of beating wherever he runs.Trained by Nicky Henderson.

Mon Parrain – Paul NichollsThis horse produced the best jumping

performance I have seen for a long time whenfinishing second over the Grand National fences atAintree. Although the horse was only 2nd that day,Mon Parrain looked a complete natural and is onlyfive years of age. It’s remarkable for a horse to jumpthe national fences the way he did at his young age.Long term members will remember that we backedthis horse at Aintree; how we did not collect wereally don’t know. The horse was cantering and wellclear but folded on the long run home and gotcaught. That was Mon Parrain’s last run of theseason, he only raced twice as connections wanted tolet him mature and achieve his full potential. MonParrain has done wonderfully well over the summer,has grown and looks top-class. We’re sure that atsome point during this season he will become one ofthe yard’s big names.

King’s Grace – Donald McCain Jr.This horse made his debut at Bangor-On-Dee in

November 2010, winning a National Hunt flat raceby 6-7 lengths. King’s Grace was not seen againafter his debut victory as the horse required anoperation to remove a tumor in his foot. Thankfullythe tumor was removed successfully and King’sGrace has been back in work for some time. Thetrainer really likes this one, he believes the horse hasa great engine and works well above average athome. Long term his future will be over fences butDonald is more than hopeful King’s Grace will bewinning some good races over hurdles andCheltenham is not out of the question; such is theregard in which he is held.

Captain Chris – Philip HobbsWe must consider stable star Captain Chris who

had the most fantastic season; winning the Arkle at

11please turn over


WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Cheltenham before finishing the season off in greatstyle at Punchestown. This speedy animal didnothing but improve all season and should take somebeating wherever he runs this time around. CaptainChris has done very well over the summer; the horselooks a picture of health whilst also strengthening upsignificantly. There are several options open at themoment including the Gold Cup which has beenmentioned, however Captain Chris is obviously veryuseful over the shorter distances, so the QueenMother might also be on the radar. Expect this horseto take plenty of beating in the eventual race that heis targeted for.

Royal Guardsman – Colin Tizzard Colin Tizzard already has the top-class Cue Card

in his stable, but Royal Guardsman may be the onethat really puts this trainer on the map. Our info guywas informed by Colin that Royal Guardsman hasbeen beating Cue Card at home. Connections couldnot believe what they were seeing, but it was nofluke as the horse has done it time and time again onthe gallops. The horse has run just once, winning abumper in great style. Only time will tell how goodthis horse could become, but he must be a seriousplayer in any race judging by his progress at home.

I hope this snippet of the information collectedfrom the BetterTipster stable visits can help you thisJumps season. The full “Jumps Horses to FollowReport” is only available to www.bettertipser.co.ukreaders but I thank them again for agreeing to sharesome of the really exciting prospects in this editionof WRWM. Get out your black notebooks and watchout for the “Dirty Half-Dozen”.

Betting Psychology

On the Couch WithAndrew David

This article sees a welcome return to these pagesfor Andrew David, who some of you will

remember from his absolute spanking of thebookmakers at Cheltenham with those free winningtips in March’s WRWM.

This time, Andrew turns his attention to betting

psychology and ends with a nice Lucky 15 whichcould make you a pretty penny (just remember tokeep your emotions in check!).

“You only sing when you’re winning”A common chant roared by football fans all over

the country. It’s funny; when things go our way welike to sing from the rooftops, but when they gopear-shaped we retreat into our shells. The same canbe said of your typical gambler. It’s often saidgamblers will only tell you when they are winning.When they lose it’s a totally different matter, someeven cushion the blow by saying they broke even! Imyself was guilty of this in my early days. It’s allabout saving face, no one ever wants to admit theirjudgment was wrong, least of all a gambler.

This outward expression of extreme emotions isone of the key obstacles preventing many a “wouldbe” professional from realising their dream andmaking this game pay.

Showing these emotions indicates one thing: theyare simply too attached to the money they arebetting with. What’s more, if high returns from thismoney are not forthcoming they quickly becomedespondent. They then adopt a knee-jerk reactionand chase losses quickly with irrational decisions.The most common knee-jerk reaction is to lump onthe next favourite in the hope it will get them out oftrouble. Obviously it all ends in tears with themblaming everyone bar themselves.

Bookmakers just love the emotional punter; infact, they deliberately target them with slickadvertising and seductive offers, tempting them withbig payouts and bonuses.

The biggest weapon bookmakers use against suchpunters is the “Multiple bet”. This bet is a massive“Cash Cow” for them, hence the reason they push itso hard. You often see it taking prominence in thewindow of every high street bookmaker. They knowthe emotional punter will be tempted by thepotentially big payouts on offer. You never see“Come in and have a ‘Win Single’ or ‘Each Way’ beton a selection” – I rest my case! Nowadays, theyhave attracted a whole new market by targeting thefootie punter with various special bets. Sure, themultiple is great as a bit of fun, but treat it as justthat, a “bit of fun” and no more. They are certainly

12

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

not to be relied upon for long-term consistent profitsunless you have a crystal ball!

(Editor’s Note – or unless you consider layingMultiples at Betfair?)

On this subject, I have included details at the footof the article regarding a multiple that provided mewith both a bit of fun, and a decent profit! More onthat later.

Can you spot a professional?Upon visiting any racecourse I can quickly

identify those that make it pay from those that don’t.How? Well, I just simply watch the reaction anindividual shows to the outcome of the race.

If they become ecstatic when their horse passesthe post first, I would wager they do not make it pay.You often see this type of punter jumping franticallyby the winning post on TV. Sure, you have the funday punters who get excited when winning, which isfine, but any serious professional would not be doinghandstands when their selection wins. They simplywould not subject themselves to this constantfluctuation in emotional states. Not only is itmentally exhausting, but it only serves to impairtheir future judgement, judgement they rely on forfuture profits.

Now, to spot a professional amongst theracegoers is a far more difficult proposition. To behonest, I wouldn’t have a clue as they would displaythe same numb expression win or lose.

A tell-tale sign may be to look out for punterswho show a complete lack of interest in theoutcome, but then again they may be someone whojust didn’t have a bet in the race. My point is, it’svery difficult to identify your typical professional,and that’s just the way they like it.

In my early days, I mixed with some of thebiggest gamblers who were betting £1,000–£5,000on selections when I was betting paper-round moneyin comparison. I asked one who had just collectedaround £7,000 why he wasn’t excited; he said, “It’sjust sales turnover – not winnings.”

It took me a while to get my head around thisanswer, but from thereon in I changed my focus andviewed all my losing bets as a bad sale made, andmy winning bets as a good sale made. As long as Imake more from my good sales and cover the losses

from my bad sales then I’m happy. I simply view allmy individual bets as part of a much bigger picture,and together they form my business turnover.

Once you stop paying too much attention to theoutcome of individual results, and insteadconcentrate on the long-term picture, you will findyou become less ecstatic when winning and lessdown when losing. Once you arrive at this stage youknow you are well on your way to attaining theprofessional gamblers’ mentality.

The big question here is, can this cold approachand the ability to switch off emotions be learnt, orare we born with it?

My personal opinion is that it’s learnt andacquired throughout ones’s life’s. Surely no one canbe born devoid of emotion (apart from the mother-in-law, of course), but seriously, I believe allprofessional gamblers, especially card players, workvery hard to make sure they keep their emotions incheck.

This switching off of emotions, whether plannedor unplanned, may be a coping mechanism adoptedand developed over time to ensure they carry onthrough the rough patches. Without such a copingstrategy many would simply fold under the pressureof down periods.

So what’s the point of all this commentary, youmay ask? Well, the message is clear. If you are outto make money from this game and are unwilling toadopt the cold mental state required to succeed thenstop NOW!

You must, I repeat MUST, become emotionallydivorced from the money you are betting with!Easier said than done, I know, but I have written afew articles for WRWM that have helped a numberof people and can help you attain the correct mentalattitude. Then, and only then will you be able tofinally smash one of the major obstacles preventingyou from making your betting pay.

The articles can be viewed by typing the addressbelow into your browser:

http://bit.ly/opmfreearticles

No one likes losing runs, but as gamblers wecan’t avoid them. One method that may help youinvolves turning your attention to betting markets

13please turn over


WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

that greatly reduce the likelihood of thesehappening; preferably sports markets with the leastpossible result outcomes.

For example: The Over/Under 2.5 goals market.

Here is a market with two possible outcomes, asopposed to other markets with numerous outcomes.With a bit of research this can be a very lucrativearea of betting as many professionals are nowfinding out. Even backing one or the other blind,you are unlikely to experience long losing runs.

The downside is with only two possible outcomesthe odds on offer will not be great, but with a bit ofwell thought out research and sensible moneymanagement you really can make this form ofbetting pay. Other sports markets to consider are:snooker, tennis, and golf matches.

What you have to remember is that the fewer thepossible outcomes to any event the less favourable itis for the bookmaker, so on the flip side it must beadvantageous for the punter.

The above are just a few examples of marketsthat, with a bit of research, can reduce your exposureto lengthy losing runs and become profitable.

The good and bad luck myth…Another point to remember when following a

proven method or service is to view it from anobjective viewpoint and apply a bit of numericallogic to what’s involved.

I often hear punters say: “Every time I join aservice or follow a system I seem to start when thelosers begin, so I must be cursed!”

Well, let’s look at this from a purelymathematical viewpoint with my own each-wayselection service. My historical results show a winstrike rate of 35%, therefore, 65% of my selectionswill be placed or unplaced. So probability dictatesthe chances of you joining at a losing or flat periodare higher than you joining when we hit the winners.It’s simple maths, nothing to do with luck. It’s onlythose that carry on who will reap the rewards of theupturn, when the irrational punter will no doubt havegiven up blaming “bad luck.”

In my betting shops days I remember one punterwho would repeat the mantra: “If it wasn’t for bad

luck I would have no luck at all.” That simply isn’ttrue when you look at the cold hard facts of what hewas trying to achieve with his big-priced selections.

In gambling, winners can happen in an instant,and losing or flat periods can last for what seemslike an eternity. I’ve often been in a loss going intothe very last day of a given month then turned in aprofit on the final day, and that, in a nutshell, isgambling for a living.

And finally…I know all this gambling psychology stuff can get

a bit heavy, so to round off this article, let’s have abit of fun with the multiple bet I mentioned earlier.

A bit of fun for Saturdays that could payout big money!

Here is a bet I have every Saturday that has givenme some sizeable wins and some nail-bitingmoments in my quest for the big payout!

Basically, I back four football matches in a*Lucky 15 bet. This bet is offered as an option bymost online bookmakers once you enter fourselections from whatever sport onto your bet slip. Oryou can simply place your bets at the betting officeon a pre-printed slip.

*A lucky 15 system bet consists of: 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and one 4-fold

Each of my selections are backed in the “HalfTime/Full-Time” betting market. This market canbe found next to the match odds for both teamsunder the column “Other Bets” or “More bets”usually from a pull-down menu.

So what we are doing is predicting the home sidewill be leading at half-time, but will end up drawing.It’s surprising how many times this happens whenusing the filter I outline below. I was equallysurprised by the odds on offer which are around the15/1–16/1 mark for each selection!

So here goes:

I back four HOME sides that are favouritespriced around the 1.90–2.25 (in decimal) to beLEADING at half-time and the match to be aDRAW at full-time. These games can be selected

14

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

from any match odds coupon, I use Betfair’s inplaycoupon.

As stated above, you usually get odds of15.0/16.0 for this kind of bet, so with the Lucky 15bet. I then place 15 bets at £1.00 per line for a totalstake of £15.00.

Even if only “1” of the “4” selections issuccessful you will be in profit, and below are thetypical payouts you will receive:

1 selection correct pays: £29.00

2 selections correct pays: £255.00

3 selections correct pays: £4095.00

4 selections correct pays: £65,535.00!!!

Now I can’t claim to have got any ‘three’ or‘four’ correct although I’ve come close on manyoccasions but for late goals. However, I’ve hadseveral £255.00 payouts for getting “two” correct,and plenty of “one” correct paying £29.00. Put it thisway, last season I was well in profit. So give it abash and treat it as a bit of fun, as you never know!

Also, watch out for bookmaker bonuses that givedouble the odds for getting one correct. I believeBetfred and Bet365 do at present, and that’s why Igot paid out at £29.00 for one correct.

Good luck and don’t take it too seriously!

By Andrew David

Other People’s Money (OPM)

Tipster Update

When Choosing a Tipster Insist Upon These 3 Simple ChecksIwill continue to follow my featured tipsters until

the end of year in the hope that I will reinforce theneed for a long-term view when it comes to joining atipping service. That’s why I urge you to exerciseyour power as the consumer and insist upon thefollowing:

1. Archived results going back a few years. Theseresults must be available for inspection andhave a “realistic” feel to them.

2 An online presence and recent results updateddaily, or weekly bare minimum.

3 Proofed to an independent third party (likeyours truly) for a concerted period of time. Thisenables the proofer to check that the resultsposted on the website are a true representationof the tips provided.

Not much to ask for, and, if a service you areconsidering does not respond to the above threesimple requests, then exercise your rights as aconsumer and walk away.

Back to the three tipsters I have been featuringlately, the first of which is:

www.price-power.com

This service focuses entirely on horses priced at10/1 or bigger, so expect rollercoaster rides, longlosing runs, but, as with years gone, eventual long-term profits. As pointed out in Andrew David’sarticle, you are most likely to join www.price-power.com during a losing run. Do you have thementality to stick with them for a year minimum torealise profits?

I left you on 11th September with a profit for theyear of £2,172 to £5 each-way stakes. The mostrecently updated results are available online andshow the profit for the year of £2,430.24. Anotherrise on last month.

Remember, though, if you had joined on 1stJanuary this year, you would still be showing a lossof £115 as of 4th April. Would you have stuck withPrice Power for the long term? You would certainlybe reaping the benefits of a long-term view.

We have here a service with realistic archivedresults, a service which updates present resultsweekly (results which are fully available forpersonal inspection online) and a service which hasproofed to me independently for a concerted period.

www.horsebettinganalyst.com

This is another service that has been proofing tome consistently, and meets my prerequisites for theideal service (archived results and updated recentresults fully available for inspection).

I left you on 17th September 2011 with a bettingbank of £825.90. As of 15th October 2011, thatbetting bank stands at £823.90 to advised stakes (apoints staking plan increasing points with

15please turn over


WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

confidence of bet – for example a recent 8 point betloss).

A period of treading water after spectacular risesin the last two months (53 and 59 points profit). Thelong-term view though is certainly rosy despite thelack of growth in the past month. (RememberAndrew David’s article; winners can come in burstsand soon turn a period of stagnation into a profit.)

www.bettertipster.co.uk

Another service which is pretty much break evenon its account bets for the month since the lastnewsletter. Another treading water period as weawait the “profit spurt”. Bettertipster is anothertipping service that has consistently delivered overthe longterm. They also provide insider informationregularly as non-account bets, as well asmembership-only specials such as the Flat Horsesand Jumps Horses to Follow (as featured in thismonth’s issue).

A service which has been proofed to me sinceinception, this is another ideal service where resultsare available for inspection online and are updatedand available freely.

Before I go…

Here’s why I insist upon my 3 key factors for theideal tipping service.

I was recently asked to proof a new service calledhttp://www.betting-tips-uk.com

Now, let’s play compare and contrast here:

Archived results?

No, www.betting-tips-uk.com is a new serviceand began proofing to me on 5th June 2011. Theyhave no archived results and so I was reluctant to getenthused about them until I saw proof of consistentlong-term profitability. These proofed emails endedabruptly on the 15th September without anyexplanation. Emails from me remain unanswered.

Results updated online regularly?

Well, results used to be updated for members, butthis also ended recently. (Alarm bells!) So I askedwhy they did not provide past results (under theguise of an interested prospective customer) and wasmet with this response:

“Past results prove nothing as they cannotpredict what will happen.

As an active member you will be able to proof the

results yourself and this is what we encourage.”

Not good enough! It is here that we wouldexercise our rights as consumers and leave thisservice for a service which does provide results.How on earth can we gauge the service?

And so you see why I insist upon the following:

• A foundation to a tipping service by way ofarchived results over at least 2+ years –www.betting-tips-uk.com do not have thisfoundation. Further, they do not advertise anyresults whatsoever. Why the secrecy?

• An online presence with recently updatedresults. www.betting-tips-uk.com do not provideany results updates for prospective customers.Their previous results emails have been halted,as has the forum they used to have to discusstheir services and results. I know if I had a goodservice I would want it advertised, as is the casewith www.price-power.com,www.horsebettinganalyst.com andwww.bettertipster.co.uk. Telling a prospectivecustomer “past results prove nothing as theycannot predict what will happen” is simply notgood enough. Past results, as with our threetipsters, show consistency, long-termprofitability, and instill an element ofconfidence, not doubt, in a prospectivecustomer.

• Proofed independently to a third party, but notabruptly ended with no explanation and noreplies to emails asking why. This only causessuspicion on the part of the proofer… why thesudden end? Are they hiding a bad run ofresults?

So you can see, I hope, by way of compare andcontrast, three services that you would be happy to atleast consider, and another service such aswww.betting-tips-uk.com whose actions instil a totallack of confidence in the prospective customer, tosuch an extent that prospects must refuse to considerany offer until their three simple requests are met(archived results, recent updated results and proofedto a third party consistently [in good times and bad!]).

So remember to exercise your rights and activatethese three simple checks on all tipping services,particularly horse racing services.

16

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Laying Strategy

A Laying System ThatTurned Out to be anEach Way Goldmine!So there I was, dear Reader, racking my brains to

try to come up with a home-grown horse racinglaying system that I could share with you.

What I came up with was an extremely simplelay system and logical, as these things tend to be. Iwas somewhat surprised, therefore, when the secondday of my prospective lay system brought thefollowing results:

1st 3/1, 1st 3/1, 4th 5/2, 1st 6/1, 7th 9/4, 1st 5/2, 1st7/4, 5th 9/2, 2nd 3/1, 1st 11/4, 1st 6/4, 1st 15/8,pulled up 9/1, 5th 7/2, 1st 5/1

And as recently as the 11th October, this, erm, laysystem produced the following results:

1st 5/1, 3rd 85/40, 1st 6/1, 3rd evens, 3rd 3/1, 4th12/1, 9th 9/2, 1st 5/2, 1st 9/2

An eye-watering kick in the liabilities for the layer –another happy day’s punting for the each-way player!

Why each way?

Well the 10th October will explain my reasoninghere. Let’s look at the results:

4th 6/4 , 2nd 4/1, 5th 9/2, 14th 3/1, 1st 5/4, 3rd7/2, 2nd 5/1, 1st 7/2, 2nd 6/1, 2nd 8/1, 6th 9/2.

It is those 2nd and 3rd places which I want tobring to your attention: 2nd at 6/1 and 2nd at 8/1will return each-way players’ stakes and a little bitof profit to boot for placing but not winning.

And finding selections couldn’t be easier.

All we need is the Racing Post and a search forapparently vulnerable betting forecast favourites. Isay “apparently” because the above three days don’tseem to relay any vulnerability about those featuredbetting forecast favourites.

Follow this simple step-by-step process:

Go to www.racingpost.com or use the RacingPost newspaper.

Focus on the Betting Forecast at the base of eachrace.

Shortlist races where the betting forecast

favourite seems to face competition from otherhorses (as judged by the betting odds displayed).

Where previously we would have layed thebetting forecast favourite facing competition for thewin, we now, it would seem, back them each way!

A real-world example will make the processcrystal clear.

In the screenshot (see the next page), I have goneto www.racingpost.com, clicked on cards and, forPlumpton, clicked on “Show all race cards for thismeeting on one page.”

Now we work through the betting forecasts foreach race until we find a race where the odds are verytight, and preferably in a numeric progression (poshway of saying in number order). (Fig 1, page 18.)

Let’s look a little closer at the Betting forecast forthis race. (Fig 2, page 18.)

Highland River is the Betting forecast favourite(as opposed to the live betting market favouritewhich might differ). His odds are 4/1. The 2ndfavourites are Brunton Blue and Lombok, their oddsare close to the favourites at 9/2. The 3rd favourite,Hawk Gold, has odds of 5/1.

Can you see how tight this betting forecast is?You understand, I hope, why I thought about layingthe betting forecast favourite Highland River as thecloseness in odds suggests a competitive race andplenty of rivals.

But these favourites, under these circumstances,have surprised me often by winning and placing.

The 4.20pm race at Plumpton also has a similarlycompetitive-looking betting forecast. (Fig 3, page 18.)

We must note, though, that races under eightrunners will only pay out on two places. Races of eightrunners or more will pay out on three places (as this isa potential each way service – remember AndrewDavid has written a detailed look at each-way betting,the link to this is found in his article on page 13).

Painted sky, at 11/4, has two horses at 7/2breathing down his neck. Conventional thinkingwould suggest laying him. Recent results of minethough suggest backing him to win and place!

Let me relate to you the races from the 11thOctober which met the criteria outlined above, alongwith the results of the betting forecast favourite (thehorse in bold type at the beginning of the BettingForecast).

17please turn over


WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

18

Fig 3

Fig 1

Fig 2

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

Bottom lineWhat started out as a lay system has the potential

to be a successful each-way backing system. Why?Well, the proliferation of winning, 2nd and 3rdhorses since I began recording results suggests that aprofit can be made over time backing horses to winand place (traditional each way betting).

Can this fledgling method be improved? I think itcan. I will be looking at the optimum each way races(as you EVA followers will know, the best each wayvalue alternatives (EVAs) are found in eight/ninerunner races).

At this early stage, then, I would advise youmake a note of races where the betting forecast forthe first few horses sees very tight odds (forexample, if the betting forecast favourite is priced at4/1, then we would like the 2nd favourite at odds ofeither 9/2 or 5/1, the 3rd favourite at odds of either5/1 or 11/2 and so on). We want what looks like acompetitive race.

We then back the betting forecast favourite each-way.

Possible improvements will be a limit on thenumber of runners to increase the probability ofeach-way bets placing, and a look at how the bettingforecast favourite’s odds react in the distinctlydifferent live bookmaker’s betting market.

As things stand, try out this possible each waysystem. I will be monitoring it daily, and rememberthat every horse who finishes 2nd (and 3rd in eightplus runner races) could at least return your stake asyou wait for a winner.

The Patriarch presents

Simple Staking PlansThat DeliverLast time, I promised a special staking plan to be

used with any one-a-day selection system, orindeed any sequence of single selections, but havingput it through its paces before presenting it to you itdidn’t quite deliver what I wanted, so it’s beenscrapped. Perhaps I was beguiled by its title “theJapanese Genius System” (whatever that mightmean) but instead I’ve got something a lot simpler,and certainly more practical. But before I go intothat, perhaps a word about staking systems ingeneral wouldn’t be out of place.

Some punters argue that if a selection systemcan’t make a profit on level stakes then no stakingplan in the world can make it profitable. I don’t holdthat view, but I don’t intend trying to prove it.

In theory, you can arrange your pattern ofwinners to suit almost any staking plan to show aprofit or loss, depending on what you are trying toprove. What happens in real betting terms can bevery different.

A favourite staking plan that has stood the test oftime and is still much favoured is the 10% of bankstaking idea where you add profits to the bank andsubtract losses and carry on staking accordingly.Let’s say you start with a bank of 1,000 points. Youstake 10%, 100 points, and the horse wins at 2-1.You add your winnings of 200 points to the bankmaking it 1,200, so your next stake is 120 points. Ifthat loses your new bank is 1,080 points and yournext stake is 108 points, and so on. If your first betlost then the new bank would be 900 points and thenext bet 90 points. Even with this simple plan,

19please turn over


continued from page 17250 hunt BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Autumm Spirit, 5/2 Kadouchski, 7/2 Walls Way, 5/1 Sambelucky, 1st 5/1 1st 5/1

320 hunt BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Trovare, 11/4 Bedouin Bay, 3/1 Royal Diamond, 9/2 Stealing The Line, 3rd 85/40 3rd 85/40

420 hunt BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Lost Glory, 7/2 Only Witness, 4/1 Winter Alchemy, 11/2 Tiger Line, 1st 6/1 1st 6/1

450 hunt BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dramatic Duke, 9/4 Violets Boy, 7/2 Cydonia, 3rd evens 3rd evens

510 leic BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Moidore, 4/1 Watheeq, 5/1 Mojave, 6/1 Ruscello 3rd 3/1 3rd 3/1

540 leic BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Obsession, 6/1 Transfer, 13/2 Silver Alliance, 8/1 Hidden Glory 4th 12/1 4th 12/1

300 newc BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Supreme Luxury, 4/1 Dulkashe, 9/2 Saytara, 5/1 Derivatives 9th 9/2 9th 9/2

330 newc BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Moonlight Mystery, 11/2 Benny The Bear, 6/1 St Oswald, 8/1 Flying Applause, 1st 5/2 1st 5/2

430 newc BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Flameoftheforest, 7/1 Secret City, 7/1 Supreme Spirit, 8/1 Sea Salt, 9/1 Mata Hari Blue, 1st 9/21st 9/2

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

however, not all punters are agreed. Most, I believe,would go along with it the way I’ve described, whileothers say that if losses reduce the bank to less than1,000 points you should still carry on with stakes of100 points. As with so much in betting – it’s all amatter of temperament.

Here’s another plan, somewhat similar to theprevious one, which is very effective as long as youhave a strike rate of up to 40%: for your first stakedivide your bank by 9. If it loses divide by 9 againand continue dividing by 9 as long as you are losing.But, after a winner divide your bank by 5 and carryon dividing by 5 as long as you are winning. Then,after a loser divide by 7; if that wins then go back todividing by 5, if it loses then divide by 9 and startthe process again.

This next plan is quite different, and a bit morecomplicated. We need to set down five columns toshow it in operation, and I’ll indicate how thesework after I’ve described the work of each column.

Column 1. This is the target for each bet. I’dsuggest the reasonably modest target of 3 which willhelp keep stakes down. So the column will proceed– First bet 3, second bet 6, third bet 9 and so on.

Column 2. The figure here is the figure in column 1added to the figure in column 5. (We’ll come to thatfigure in a second).

Column 3. This column tells us the stake, and it isthe figure in column 2 divided by 3, rounded up tothe next whole number where necessary.

Column 4. This gives us the result of the bet, winor lose, and the amount won or lost.

Column 5. This tells us the running total, won orlost, and is always treated as a positive number whenadded to the figure in column 1 to give us the figurefor column 2. For the first bet in the sequence thereis nothing, of course, to add to column 1 to give afigure for column 2. When the figure in column 5exceeds the figure in column 1 that sequence of betshas come to an end with a profit of at least 3 pointson each bet in the sequence. All will become clear aswe set out the five columns.

Col 1. Col 2. Col 3. Col 4. Col 5.

Bet 1 3 3 1 Lost -1 -1

Bet 2 6 7 3 Lost -3 -4

Bet 3 9 13 5 Lost -5 -9

Bet 4 12 21 7 Lost -7 -16

Bet 5 15 31 11 Won 2-1(+22) +6

Bet 6 18 24 8 Won 7-4(+14) +20

The sequence now ends with the figure in column5 exceeding that in column 1 so we have made ourtarget profit of 3 points on each bet. That profit of20 points can, of course, be multiplied by increasingthe stakes. For example, to make 100 points profit,multiply all the stakes by 5 so that the stakingbecomes 5, 15, 25, etc.

As a practice, try working through thecalculations for 2 points a bet instead of 3. Youshould find that, using the same sequence of losses,wins and prices, after six bets the profit is 113⁄4, notquite exceeding the 12 target but near enough that Iwould stop there, take the profit and start a newsequence.

Finally, I’m no Statman but I recently cameacross some different racing figures that I reckon areof vital interest to every horse betting fan, I intend tocover them in next month’s issue to see how we canprofit from them.

The Cash Master

Systems and Tipsters Update

Ihave eight reviews for you this month. As ever, allreviews plus all systems we are currently testing

can be found here:

http://www.cash-master.com/blog

1) Beaumont’s BetsQuite a lot has happened over the last few months

since this service started. Paul makes his money bybacking value horses, which means they are pricedhigher than they should be. There was initially aproblem with members being unable to get the same

20

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

prices as Paul because, when he gave out the tips,the prices had already steamed up quite a bit.

To address this problem, Paul now gives the tipsout in three separate emails throughout the morning.This means that members are now able to get thesame price, or as near as damn it, to what Paul isgetting when he places his bets.

Even more recently, Paul introduced GoogleDocs as an additional feature. This is an onlinespreadsheet that members can access and Paulupdates it as he places his bets in real time. Thismeans, anyone viewing the document can get on thebet at the same time as Paul, and this really hassolved the price issues.

But that’s not all. One of the things that a fewmembers had trouble with were the numbers of betsand potential draw downs on any given day. It’sbeen known for Paul to make 100 points profit inone week, but also give 100 points back to thebookies another week.

This isn’t a problem for anyone using therecommended (at the time) 200 point bank. But whatbecame apparent was that a lot of people simplycouldn’t handle those kind of draw downs; possiblybecause they were not using a true 200 point bank, butalso, no doubt, because it’s difficult for anyone exceptthe most seasoned gamblers to handle that sort of thing.

So, on 20th July, Paul implemented a plan thatwiped out the big draw downs completely whilst stillmaintaining a ridiculously high profit margin. Theplan was simple. All you do is back the selection inthe morning at the early price and then lay off 75%of the bet on Betfair just before the off. There arebots that can do this for you.

So, by using the 75% method, you only ever riskone quarter of one point per bet. That’s £2.50 if youbet £10 stakes. This means the recommended bettingbank is more than halved to 80 points.

These are the results using the 75% method:

20th-31st July: 11.71 points

August: 88.98 points

September: 95.55 points

You can get the full breakdown here:

http://www.beaumontsbets.com/results

Bear in mind that any service that can averagejust 10 points profit in a month is a superb service.

Now let’s put this into perspective. Using an 80point bank, Paul DOUBLED it in August and againin September. At £10 stakes that’s £889 profit inAugust and £955 profit in September. Andremember, with a £10 stake you are only actuallyrisking £2.50.

If you are serious about making a living frombetting then you should give this service someconsideration:

http://www.beaumontsbets.com

2) Grey Horse Bot – Supersonic LaysI have an update on the Grey Horse Bot today.

As many of you will know I’m a big fan of thisbot because it does pretty much everything youcould want a bot to do, and as I test out a lot ofsystems many of them can be tested with the bot inpaper-trading mode simply by inputting the criteriaof the system. The bot then happily bets away eitherin real money or using a fictional bank allowing youto easily see how well each system performs.

As a bonus to GHB members, the members’ areacontains lots of systems and tips to use with the bot.

One such system is called Supersonic Lays andthe results of this have been, well, supersonic.

It’s been running since 1st March and amazinglyit hasn’t had a single losing bet yet!

The best way to use the tips is by staking to aliability, using a set percentage of the bank as theliability per bet. Grey Horse Bot does this easily, soif you tell it to stake to 10% liability it will calculatehow much to bet on each horse so that the liability isexactly 10% of your betting bank. Obviously, thestake will depend on what the odds are on the horse,so if the odds are high, the stake will be very lowand vice versa. The risk on each bet is always 10%of whatever your bank is.

21please turn over


WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

You can set the liability to whatever you like butstarting with a £500 betting bank, the profit using10% liability is £40,163.38 after Betfair commissionup to 14th October.

Supersonic!

Grey Horse Bot users get this for free, at least fornow.

If you don’t have the Grey Horse Bot you can tryit here:

http://www.greyhorsebot.net

3) fANNEtastic FootballThis is not so much a review as a suggestion that

you sign up for this service.

Any regular reader will know that I can be hardto please and always try to give as much adviceabout the type of person a product would suit aspossible, so it’s unusual for me to make that sort ofstatement.

The reason I suggest you sign up is that thisservice is very different from usual products. It’sfree to signup until the end of October and has beenset up by Matt Hodder in memory of his motherAnne and its main purpose is to raise some muchneeded money for a very worthy cause: MacmillanCancer Support. You donate the money yourself viathe justgiving.com website, so there’s no middlemanto worry about. If you wish to stay a member afterthe end of the free period, then you donate money tothe charity and you will receive your selections untilthe end of the year. The suggested donation is only£5 but I would imagine that most people will thinklike me and base their donation on how muchthey’ve made from the selections. That is purely mythought and is not mentioned on the site, I’d alsosay, don’t forget about the gift aid box if you are aUK taxpayer.

The bets are all on the Under/Over 2.5 Goalmarkets. As we’ve been in the international periodthere has only been one bet so far, which lost butwas at an odds against price and only just failed. ButI don’t want to sit on this waiting for the leagues tostart up again and waste your free selections period.So you can proof it for yourselves.

I have received an email most days since signing

up that covered a few different betting ideas,absolutely NO sales pages, just ideas on differenttypes of bets you can place on different markets, etc.and are just Word documents like “The Bet TheBookies Hate”, etc.

I’ve been a member for around a week and havenot received any spam at all. I know this as I am inthe habit of using different email address fordifferent systems and methods and I can state 100%that the only emails received were from Matt andthey were not sales-related in any way.

So there you have it really. Sign up free until theend of October, then you can choose to subscribe bydonating a minimum of £5 to a very worthy charity.

I’m going to file this under “Approved” as I can’tsee any problem with just signing up and papertrading for a couple of weeks.

You can sign up here:

http://www.bettingsystemprofits.com/

4) KIP BotAs of yesterday my KIP betting bot hit the £1,000

profit mark since 1st July. I bet at £20 level stakesand don’t do anything, I just leave the software torun 24/7, betting for me.

I’m going to increase my stake to £25 today inline with the steady increase in my betting bank.

There is a new release today of KIP 2, which isan upgrade to the bot. The main improvement iswith the results update and there is a box you cantick that stops the bot betting on the next race if ithasn’t had the result from the previous race. This isonly important for people using the recovery stakingoption, which I don’t use.

There is also a % of bank staking option includedas well.

There is a problem with this new one though. Ican’t get it to run on my VPS! It runs fine on my PCbut just freezes on the virtual server.

If you are already running KIP on a VPS Irecommend continuing with that one until this issuehas been resolved.

You can get the KIP Betting Bot here:

http://www.kipbot.org

22

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

5) The BetPlan – UpdateAs promised, an update. I gave this a cautious

approved when I first reviewed it. I started the trialat the start of a poor run, yet still ended in profit. Icould see the potential and so decided to give itanother 60 days.

I re-set the bank to £200, operating a ratchet 5%staking plan, and the bank now stands at a veryimpressive £379.40.

All bets are to Betfair prices I got, usuallybeating the prices given. The only one I was worseon was a drifter, winning at 3/1, I took 3.5.

I can now wholly recommend The BetPlan for itssimplicity (no following shows, just place the betand check later), and of course the profit!

I will update again in 60 days with further news.

You can join The BetPlan here:

http://thebetplan.com

6) Full Time Betting IncomeI was unable to use FTBI during the holidays, in

fact for most of the six-week school break, so for thesake of consistency I’ll report on the Betfair SPresults (which are less than what I and other actualusers had been getting).

So where are we with this system now that it hasbeen running for four months?

Well, the figures don’t look good at the moment.If you remember, the idea is to turn a tiny £200betting bank into £30,000 over five years. You spendfive minutes a day placing one or two bets and if thesystem works the way it’s supposed to, as shownover the previous years, then the power ofcompounding works its magic and you’re laughingall the way to a luxury holiday in St Lucia with aregular five-figure income going forward.

At the moment though, it’s looking more like acamping holiday in Skegness is on the cards.

After four months the £200 betting bank is at thedizzying heights of… er… £127.62.

You may well be wondering why I haven’t firmlybooted this system into the FAILED bin with theother systems that performed this “well” over fourmonths. Well, the reason is this:

Right from the start Chris, the author, has been atpains to point out that this must be viewed as a long-

term project. In fact, he makes a point of showingyou one particular year where the betting bank wentinto the red for nine whole months before recoveringand making a profit in the last three months of theyear.

So to be fair to the system, I’ll run this for at leasta full year and see where we stand. If, after a year, itlooks to be doing what it’s supposed to then we maybe onto something here. If it doesn’t then at least wegave it a fair crack of the whip.

http://fulltimebettingincome.com

7) IB GAMING

FINAL REVIEW of 2011Fundamentally, this is a Flat racing based

selection system that BACKS long priced horses.

Seeing as the Flat racing season ends now, Ifigured it was time to conclude my findings.

Last year this system made a stunning 436 pointsprofit in three months. Unfortunately, the systemtrial that I ran made nowhere near this level of profitand I have been running the system for the fullseason May-Sept.

Most notable this year, was Rileys Crane on 8thJune at Yarmouth that ran home well at BSP of 270– £2 staking that I have been using, and returned£538! This was, however, the shining star of allwinners this particular season.

Selections: 1,827

Winners: 107

Strike Rate: 5.9%

Overall P/L: 55.5 pts

This is a profit. However, it is a very modestreturn for a solid 150 days worth of staking... and toput this into real perspective, were it not for thesignificant return on Rileys Crane – we wouldactually be facing a, loss, of approx 179 points.

This has disappointed me, I had hoped for greatthings on the back of last year’s shining story butthis is horse racing after all, which as we are allaware is often unpredictable. I think this is simplyone of those years that things were simply not in ourfavour. So, I will give this a “hesitant” NEUTRALrating for now. If reading this, you think that a returnof 55 points is fair over the timeframe consideredthen do buy the system. The selections are quite easy

23please turn over


WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

to determine and once practised you will have itdown to a matter of 10 minutes or so to workthrough the daily racecard.

As an alternative to manually working throughthe daily racecards, you can subscribe tohttp://www.horseracebase.com (a fantastic racingdatabase IMHO better than Adrian Massey’s nowdefunct website), and automate the selection process,having the selections emailed to you. (This is a real“pleaser”, I can tell you!)

I will be watching closely next year…

8) Magic Racing BotAnother month on, we’re now more or less three

months into this and there’s not a great deal to reportagain. It is making a profit, slowly, but I suspectBetfair will make more out of this than I will.

They made a slight change earlier in the monthand decided to exclude Saturdays, as it was showingbig losses on these days, so I hope this exclusionwill make a difference over time.

The bank did reach a new high of £648.26 andI’m now showing a total profit of £199.39, althoughfor three months of betting every day this is hardlyground breaking.

Still, it requires no effort on my part, runningquietly on my VPS, and I guess if it only made £500in a year it would be worth it.

Original Bank: £403.12

Bank High: £648.46

Current Bank: £602.51

Stake: £8.65

Profit: £199.39

http://magicracingbot.com

A Message From the Publisher

This Roulette SystemShouldn’t Work, But it Does – Here’s First-Hand Proof!Irecently had an email that really made me sit up and

listen. It was from a subscriber Jacqueline Lewis.I’m sure she won’t mind me saying that she has tried

countless money-making ideas over the years.

I was so shocked when I saw what she wasactually making money with.

You see, I’d never usually promote anything evenclose to a Roulette System. Why? Because it shouldNOT work.

In fact, when I first recommended this system I wasinundated with emails from people ticking me off forhaving the cheek to publish it. They said: “You can’tmake money from online roulette, it’s a mug’s game.”

And yet, I trusted the author and knew that –despite the controversial subject matter – he wasmanaging to generate small but regular wins fromthis simple system. And the fact that Jacqueline(who had no preconceptions) is making about £70 aday from this, proves my gut instinct right!

Here’s what she has to say:

“It is so simple and lucrative; you would wonderwhy nobody had ever come up with the idea before...Probably because most system inventors are toobusy creating complicated strategies that either don’twork long term or put most people off because oftheir complexity.

Anyway [the] system works – it works very well –and if the simple rules are adhered to, it’s a fun andeasy way to make a second income...

The best way to work the roulette system is tohave four or so bookmaker accounts, and go in shortbursts from one to another. That way you can comeout with a profit every day, because you have fourdifferent wheels to chop and change between.Modest profits of say £17 on each table in a day willdo me fine. This or any other type of gambling is notfor reckless or impatient types and it does requireconcentration on the staking.

Like I said, it’s easy and it works. I’m over themoon with it.”

So if you think you are open-minded enough thentake a look at the details enclosed in this issue or gostraight to:

www.orderroulette.com

And if, like Jacqueline, you start making goodmoney, let me know!

Best regards,

Nick Laight

24

WRWM_1011.qxd 19/10/11 16:09

an independent review of tipsters and betting systems · to be an each way goldmine! .....17 the...

Documents