an impact analysis of electrifying floridas public buses aer group, tallahassee fl buddy atkins,...
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An Impact An Impact Analysis of Analysis of Electrifying Electrifying Florida’s Public Florida’s Public BusesBuses
AER Group, Tallahassee FLAER Group, Tallahassee FLBuddy Atkins, Vesselka McAlarney, Alicia Queen
Project ScopeProject Scope
Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric
• Direct cost savings
• Indirect benefits
2
Electric Bus AlternativeElectric Bus Alternative
The Proterra EcoRide• Equivalent lifespan of
a diesel bus (12 years)• Improved fuel
efficiency • Simplified motor• FastFill™ Charging
Station
3
MethodologyMethodology
4
ImpactAnalysis
CostComparison
AdditionalBenefits
Initial Investment
Annual Expenditures
IncreasedEconomic Activity
ReducedExternalities
MethodologyMethodology
5
ImpactAnalysis
CostComparison
AdditionalBenefits
Initial Investment
Annual Expenditures
IncreasedEconomic Activity
ReducedExternalities
• Purchase Price• Facility
Upgrades
Initial Investment for Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Electric Higher than DieselDiesel
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012 6
$790,000
$790,000
$480,000
$480,000
Initial Investment for Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Electric Higher than DieselDiesel
7
$310,000
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012
Federal Grants Cover at least 80% Federal Grants Cover at least 80% of Initial Investment for Electric of Initial Investment for Electric and Dieseland Diesel
Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD 8
Tallahassee’s StarMetro received 100% federal funding for electric buses in 2011
Initial Investment for Electric Higher Initial Investment for Electric Higher than Diesel, but Offset by Federal than Diesel, but Offset by Federal GrantsGrants
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$62,000
Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook 2012
MethodologyMethodology
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ImpactAnalysis
CostComparison
AdditionalBenefits
Initial Investment
Annual Expenditures
IncreasedEconomic Activity
Reduced Externalities
• Maintenance• Fuel Cost
Electric Bus Has a Simpler Electric Bus Has a Simpler Mechanical SystemMechanical System
11Proterra Inc., 2013
Engine
Engine OilTraction MotorGearbox
Battery
ElectricElectricvsvs..
DieselDiesel
Engine Components
Fuel Systems Exhaust Systems
Belts Alternator
Retarder
Lifetime Maintenance Costs for Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than an Electric Bus Are Less than DieselDiesel
12US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011
Lifetime Maintenance Costs for Lifetime Maintenance Costs for an Electric Bus Are Less than an Electric Bus Are Less than DieselDiesel
13US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011
$112,000
Electricity and Diesel Price Electricity and Diesel Price Projections Needed to Estimate Projections Needed to Estimate Fuel Costs to 2035Fuel Costs to 2035
14Source: US Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook, 2013
Source: US Energy Information Administration 15
Apply National Diesel Price Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Projections to Florida without ModificationModification
Source: US Energy Information Administration 16
Apply National Diesel Price Apply National Diesel Price Projections to Florida without Projections to Florida without ModificationModification
Florida Projection
Electricity Prices Vary Due To Electricity Prices Vary Due To Numerous Utilities Throughout Numerous Utilities Throughout FloridaFlorida
17Source: Florida Public Service Commission, Facts and Figures 2013
Buses Concentrated in Buses Concentrated in Densely Populated AreasDensely Populated Areas
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EscambiaSanta Rosa
OkaloosaWalton
HolmesJackson
Washington
Bay
Calhoun
Gulf Franklin
Liberty
Gadsden
Leon
Wakulla
Jefferson Madison
Taylor
Hamilton
Suwannee
Lafayette
Dixie
ColumbiaBaker
UnionBradford Clay
Alachua
LevyMarion
Putnam
St. Johns
Duval
Nassau
Gilchrist
Citrus
Flagler
Volusia
SeminoleLake
SumterHernando
BrevardOrange
Pasco
Hillsborough
Pinellas
Manatee
Sarasota
PolkOsceola
Indian River
OkeechobeeHighlands
Hardee
DeSoto
Charlotte
Lee
Glades
Martin
St. Lucie
Palm BeachHendry
CollierBroward
Monroe
Miami-Dade
Number of BusesNo buses1-5051-200201-500501-1,000
Source: Florida Department of Transportation
Apply National Electricity Price Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%by 12%
19Source: EIA, FMEA
Apply National Electricity Price Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced Projections to Florida, Reduced by 12%by 12%
20Source: EIA, FMEA
Electric Buses Are 5x Electric Buses Are 5x More Fuel Efficient than More Fuel Efficient than DieselDiesel
Source: Penn State Bus Testing and Research Center, NTD 21
Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Electric $450K less than Diesel Electric $450K less than Diesel
22Source: Penn State, NTD
$445,000
Total Lifetime Cost for Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Electric Bus Lower than DieselDiesel
23Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA
Total Lifetime Cost for Total Lifetime Cost for Electric Bus Lower than Electric Bus Lower than DieselDiesel
24Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA
$464,000
Conversion Plan – Conversion Plan – Purchase 200 Electric Purchase 200 Electric Buses Each YearBuses Each Year
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Full Conversion
Annual Total Cost of Annual Total Cost of Diesel Fleet and Diesel Fleet and ConversionConversion
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Initial Investme
nt
Increased Fuel
Efficiency
Battery Purchase
Full Conversi
on
Total Cost Difference
Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost of Electric Fleet is $120M Less of Electric Fleet is $120M Less Per YearPer Year
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Initial Deficit
Recoupment $120
million
Full Conversion
Electric Fleet Continues to Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Generate Savings with Constant Federal GrantsFederal Grants
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Reference
Constant Grants
$85 M
Electricity and Diesel Prices Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035Stay Constant Until 2035
29Source: US Energy Information Administration
Electricity and Diesel Prices Electricity and Diesel Prices Stay Constant Until 2035Stay Constant Until 2035
30Source: US Energy Information Administration
Electric Fleet Continues to Electric Fleet Continues to Generate Savings with Constant Generate Savings with Constant Fuel PricesFuel Prices
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Constant Fuel Prices
Reference
$80 M
MethodologyMethodology
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ImpactAnalysis
CostComparison
AdditionalBenefits
Initial Investment
Annual Expenditures
IncreasedEconomic Activity
Reduced Externalities
MethodologyMethodology
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ImpactAnalysis
CostComparison
AdditionalBenefits
Initial Investment
Annual Expenditures
IncreasedEconomic Activity
Reduced Externalities
Electrifying Public Bus Electrifying Public Bus System May Create New System May Create New JobsJobs
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Additional Electricity Demand Additional Electricity Demand May Require a New Power Plant May Require a New Power Plant in Floridain Florida
Current supply and demand of electricity is in equilibrium
Charging electric buses at peak times will create unplanned demand for electricity
A new electricity plant of 85 MW may be needed
35Source: Florida Public Service Commission
If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is Built, It Will Stimulate the Built, It Will Stimulate the Florida EconomyFlorida Economy
Category Estimate
Construction Spending $110 million
Operating Cost $2.5 million/year
Annual Sales $50 million/year
New Jobs (direct & indirect)
100 permanent jobs
Personal Income Increase
$20 million
36Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission
Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.
Local Governments Can Divert Local Governments Can Divert Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Transit Cost Savings of $120M to Other ServicesOther Services
If cost savings are spent on education:
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Category Estimate
Annual Cost Savings $120 million
New Jobs (direct & indirect)
500 permanent jobs
Personal Income Increase
$40 millionEstimates produced using a regional economic
model by REMI, Inc.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, FMEA, FDOT, Proterra Inc.
Electrifying Public Bus System Electrifying Public Bus System Could Reduce Negative Could Reduce Negative ExternalitiesExternalities Since 2001, “clean diesel” has helped
reduce air pollutants
CO2 emissions have not been reduced
Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?
Source: USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (2009), US EPA 38
CO2 from Electric Buses Comes CO2 from Electric Buses Comes from Production of Electricity at from Production of Electricity at Power PlantsPower Plants
Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA
40 metric tons of CO40 metric tons of CO22 per bus per bus annuallyannually
39
COCO22 Emissions Are Emissions Are
Significantly Lower for Significantly Lower for Electric BusesElectric Buses
CO2 emissions are 75% lower for an electric
bus!
Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission 40
Electrifying Transit Will Electrifying Transit Will Continually Reduce Continually Reduce COCO22 EmissionsEmissions
At full conversion, 300k tons of CO2 can be
saved
41Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission
Electrifying Could Reduce Electrifying Could Reduce Externality Cost by as Much as Externality Cost by as Much as $7M Annually$7M Annually
42Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission
$4m
$4.5m
$7.5m
ConclusionConclusionImpact of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses
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MethodologyMethodology
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ImpactAnalysis
CostComparison
AdditionalBenefits
Initial Investment
Annual Expenditures
IncreasedEconomic Activity
Reduced Externalities
Florida Would Benefit from Florida Would Benefit from Electrifying the Public Bus Electrifying the Public Bus SystemSystem
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At full conversion:• Annual cost savings of $120M$120M• Creation of up to 600 jobs 600 jobs • Reduced externality effect by $7M $7M
It makes economic sense economic sense for Florida to adopt an electric bus system
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