an hydrometeorological forecast system for the metropolitan area of sÃo paulo
DESCRIPTION
AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO. Augusto José Pereira Filho Oswaldo Massambani Ricardo Hallak Hugo Karam Reinaldo Haas Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULOMETROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO
Augusto José Pereira FilhoOswaldo Massambani
Ricardo HallakHugo Karam
Reinaldo Haas
Departamento de Ciências AtmosféricasInstituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências
AtmosféricasUniversidade de São Paulo
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
MotivationACQUA 20/06/ 2003 City light NASA
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
(mm h-1)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
(mm)
Fonte: OESPFonte: OESP
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
01/02 02/02 04/02
29/01 30/01 31/01
(mm)
DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMUATION 2004
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
SEA BREEZE FLOOD EVENTS 2002 - 2004
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Heat Island in the MASP
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
FLOOD CHARACTERISTICSFLOOD CHARACTERISTICS
•75% FLASH FLOODS Td > 20 oC
•60% SEA BREEZE + T> 30 oC •13 FLOODS A YEAR ( 2000 - 2004)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
NCEP
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts:NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts:
• MESONET;
• MICRONET;
• DOW X-POL DUAL;
• ARPS/T-TEB SYSTEM.
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
FAPESP/GESP
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
VH
Junta rotativaelevação
Antena
Controle da Antena / Monitoração
MotorElevação
Redutor Mecânicoelevação
Encoder Elevação
Motor Azimute
Redutor Mecânico azimute
encoder Azimute
Slip Ring
RCP8
Servo Driver Azimute
Cont AZ
Cont EL
Ang EL
Ang AZ
Servo Driver Elevação
Processador Sinais
RX Digital
RVP8
ACOPACOP
Pedestal
ACPTR
ACPTR
STALO
Digitalizador
DAFC
TX
Controle da chave
Produtos
Link de dados Celular
Trigger
Cont Chave
Compressor
Nivelamento Eletrônico
Receptor GPS
Interface elétrica Interface elétrica
Container Climatizado c/ equipamentos
Sistema de nivelamento
Link de dados
Conjunto Antena pedestal do radar
Grupo gerador
DOW X-POL DUAL
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Rainfall Analysis
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
+
RADAR SATELLITE
ANALYZED
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Rainfall Forecasting - ARPS
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
12-km
2-km
ARPS Domain
(123x123x35) 24 hr ~ 30 min.
(147x123x35) 24 hr ~3 hr
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
4800
Init
4800
Init
00 48
Init
Init
00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
Operational Routine
(hour)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
CLUSTER Server (Dual Xeon ) 3.4 Ghz, 01
GB DDR ECC;
16 Nodes P4 3.6 GHz, 512MB DDR
400MHz ECC, 512K cache;
Clic Mandrake 10.1 with kernel
2.6.12;
Libraries MPICH, PVM ATLAS,
LAPACK, ScaLAPACK;
105 Gflops with Linpack;
38 Gflops with ARPS (estimated)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Example
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Wind and Rainfall Fields (2-km grid)(123 x 123 x 57)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Urban Boundary Layer Modeling of the Metropolitan Area of São
Paulo (MASP)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Totally urbanized in the MASP
CBERS-2 image (resolution = 20 m )
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Thermodynamics variables
• Calibration of the Urban Surface Model.
• Improve the Numerical Forecast.
• Model and Dataset Interface Set up.
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
e (K)
IAG-USP
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Goal of Tropical TEB (T-TEB)
• To develop a Tropical Urban Surface Model calibrated for the MASP, based on Masson (2000);
• Improve the short-term forecast of rainfall.
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Short Wave Radiation Forcing
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Precipitation: 04-05 Feb 2004
IAG-USP
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Water accumulation at urban surfaces (simul.)
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Urban Surfaces Heat Fluxes
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
Hydrological Modeling
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
ANN
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
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Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting WWRP-WMO, 5-9 September 2005, Toulouse, France
THE END