AN EDUCATION & TRAINING AN EDUCATION & TRAINING STRATEGY STRATEGY

( & SYSTEM) FOR 2020 – ( & SYSTEM) FOR 2020 – THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME?THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME?

Ewart KeepEwart KeepESRC Centre on Skills, Knowledge & ESRC Centre on Skills, Knowledge &

Organisational PerformanceOrganisational Performance

IN THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE - IN THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE - THE BAD NEWS IS……….THE BAD NEWS IS……….

• All the easy problems are now more or All the easy problems are now more or less solved!less solved!

• Nearly all the skills ‘issues’ that can be Nearly all the skills ‘issues’ that can be tackled through publicly-funded increases tackled through publicly-funded increases to the skills supply have been ‘resolved’.to the skills supply have been ‘resolved’.

• What remain are the ‘wicked problems’.What remain are the ‘wicked problems’.

SKILLS POLICY - THE SKILLS POLICY - THE TRADITIONAL MODELTRADITIONAL MODEL• Policy makers are trapped in a cycle of intervention.Policy makers are trapped in a cycle of intervention.

• Employers say they want more skills AND/OR the Employers say they want more skills AND/OR the state aspires to move itself up the OECD league state aspires to move itself up the OECD league tables for stocks of qualifications/participation in tables for stocks of qualifications/participation in some form of E&T.some form of E&T.

RESULT:RESULT:• State funds expansion of education system AND/OR State funds expansion of education system AND/OR

offers employers subsidy. offers employers subsidy.

A PIECE OF WISDOMA PIECE OF WISDOM

Adair Turner, ex-DG of the Confederation of Adair Turner, ex-DG of the Confederation of British Industry:British Industry:

When I joined the National Skills Task Force When I joined the National Skills Task Force I thought skills was a simply problem. By I thought skills was a simply problem. By the time we finished our work, I had come the time we finished our work, I had come to realise that skills is the most complex to realise that skills is the most complex public policy problem that exists today.public policy problem that exists today.

SO WHAT MIGHT THE SO WHAT MIGHT THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?FUTURE LOOK LIKE?

The year is 2020. The model that The year is 2020. The model that follows draws on leading edge follows draws on leading edge developments taking place today developments taking place today across the OECD - in places like across the OECD - in places like Australia, Ireland, Scotland and the Australia, Ireland, Scotland and the Nordic countries.Nordic countries.

HEALTH WARNINGS!HEALTH WARNINGS!

• As yet, there is no off-the-peg, proven As yet, there is no off-the-peg, proven winner model available. There are winner model available. There are interesting developments in a group of interesting developments in a group of countries.countries.

• In the time available, I can only talk In the time available, I can only talk about design principles.about design principles.

BROAD INITIAL EDUCATIONBROAD INITIAL EDUCATION

In 2020 initial education, at every level (including In 2020 initial education, at every level (including vocational offerings for young people), aims to give vocational offerings for young people), aims to give individuals a broad platform of learning upon which individuals a broad platform of learning upon which subsequent, more specialised vocational learning can subsequent, more specialised vocational learning can be built.be built.

Initial learning is seen as a preparation, not just for Initial learning is seen as a preparation, not just for work, but for the whole of life.work, but for the whole of life. Belief that in C21 Belief that in C21 success will go to the countries that have, not just success will go to the countries that have, not just smart workforces, but also smart societies and smart workforces, but also smart societies and citizens.citizens.

THE SHALLOW V. THE DEEP THE SHALLOW V. THE DEEP MODEL OF INITIAL E&TMODEL OF INITIAL E&TLorry driver training in the UK and Germany:Lorry driver training in the UK and Germany:

UKUKBasic Heavy Goods Vehicle licence, plus H&SBasic Heavy Goods Vehicle licence, plus H&S

GermanyGermanyMaths, physics, German, logistics management, Maths, physics, German, logistics management,

vehicle maintenance and a large component of vehicle maintenance and a large component of citizenship learning (since workers have citizenship learning (since workers have ‘careers’ as citizens as well as in work).‘careers’ as citizens as well as in work).

NESTING SKILLS INSIDE ECONOMIC NESTING SKILLS INSIDE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND BUSINESS IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIESIMPROVEMENT STRATEGIESAll the available research evidence tells us two things:All the available research evidence tells us two things:

1. There is NO simple, direct causal link between 1. There is NO simple, direct causal link between stocks of skills and economic success (for stocks of skills and economic success (for economies or for firms)economies or for firms)

2. The reason for 1 is that:2. The reason for 1 is that:• Skills are one factor among many (R&D, innovation, Skills are one factor among many (R&D, innovation,

product market strategy, capital investment, etc).product market strategy, capital investment, etc).• Skills are a 3rd order issue.Skills are a 3rd order issue.

YOU DON’T START WITH YOU DON’T START WITH SKILLSSKILLS

1st Order1st Order = Product market/competitive = Product market/competitive strategy strategy and production system.and production system.

2nd Order2nd Order = HRM, work organisation & job = HRM, work organisation & job design to deliver 1.design to deliver 1.

3rd Order3rd Order = Workforce skills profile needed for = Workforce skills profile needed for 22

A NEW PLACE FOR SKILLS A NEW PLACE FOR SKILLS POLICYPOLICYTherefore, in 2020, beyond initial education, Therefore, in 2020, beyond initial education,

workforce skills policy nests inside:workforce skills policy nests inside:

1.1. Economic DevelopmentEconomic Development

2.2. Business ImprovementBusiness Improvement

3.3. Labour Market/Employee Relations/Work Labour Market/Employee Relations/Work Organisation/Job DesignOrganisation/Job Design

A NEW FOCUS FOR SKILLS A NEW FOCUS FOR SKILLS POLICYPOLICY

Old ModelOld Model• From building the biggest stockpile of qualifications From building the biggest stockpile of qualifications

(SUPPLY)(SUPPLY)

2020 Model2020 Model• Supplying the skills that are really needed, stimulating Supplying the skills that are really needed, stimulating

further demand for skill, and ensuring that the skill further demand for skill, and ensuring that the skill that has already been supplied gets used to maximum that has already been supplied gets used to maximum productive effect productive effect (SUPPLY, DEMAND & USAGE).(SUPPLY, DEMAND & USAGE).

AS A CONSEQUENCEAS A CONSEQUENCE

Many policies and interventions do not start with, Many policies and interventions do not start with, or have a primary focus on skills.or have a primary focus on skills.

They will be to do with issues such as innovation, They will be to do with issues such as innovation, the development of new products and services, the development of new products and services, and new forms of production system and work and new forms of production system and work organisation - which will have consequences for organisation - which will have consequences for the design and delivery of skills supply systems.the design and delivery of skills supply systems.

FROM THROUGHPUT TO FROM THROUGHPUT TO CAPACITY BUILDINGCAPACITY BUILDING

Traditional E&T funding systems obsessed about Traditional E&T funding systems obsessed about maximising throughput or volume in publicly-maximising throughput or volume in publicly-funded E&T schemes that aimed to substitute for funded E&T schemes that aimed to substitute for employer effort and spending.employer effort and spending.

In 2020 policy focuses more on effort and In 2020 policy focuses more on effort and resources on helping employers to help resources on helping employers to help themselves, through state investment in E&T themselves, through state investment in E&T capacity building.capacity building.

CAPACITY BUILDINGCAPACITY BUILDING• Training of trainersTraining of trainers

• Group training associations/clubs/collective Group training associations/clubs/collective training provision.training provision.

• Shared trainers/HRD expertsShared trainers/HRD experts

• Learning hubs (e.g. for a trading estate)Learning hubs (e.g. for a trading estate)

SHARED RESPONSIBILITY AND SHARED RESPONSIBILITY AND POLICY PARTNERSHIPPOLICY PARTNERSHIPIn 2020 the E&T system is managed through:In 2020 the E&T system is managed through:

• Clear division of labour (‘the 3Rs’ - rights, roles Clear division of labour (‘the 3Rs’ - rights, roles and responsibilities) between the state, and responsibilities) between the state, employers and individuals.employers and individuals.

• Partnership between (rather than state Partnership between (rather than state dominance of) individuals and their dominance of) individuals and their representatives, employers and their representatives, employers and their representatives, and E&T providers.representatives, and E&T providers.

DEVOLVED STRUCTURESDEVOLVED STRUCTURES

• In 2020, the overall strategic funding, design and In 2020, the overall strategic funding, design and management of the E&T system and its linkages to other management of the E&T system and its linkages to other areas of economic and social policy is managed by a areas of economic and social policy is managed by a central partnership.central partnership.

• The detailed design, development, execution and The detailed design, development, execution and monitoring of policy is devolved to local, sectoral/sub-monitoring of policy is devolved to local, sectoral/sub-sectoral, cluster, occupational levels.sectoral, cluster, occupational levels.

• Blanket, one-size-fits all interventions are now rare!Blanket, one-size-fits all interventions are now rare!

TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UPTOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP

Traditional top-down models of policy design Traditional top-down models of policy design and implementation have been and implementation have been supplemented, via devolution of supplemented, via devolution of responsibility, with opportunities for the responsibility, with opportunities for the bottom-up design of interventions, for bottom-up design of interventions, for networking across the E&T system, and the networking across the E&T system, and the use of strong feedback loops that allow those use of strong feedback loops that allow those at the front line of delivering policy to offer at the front line of delivering policy to offer views and advice to those who design and views and advice to those who design and manage the system at the top.manage the system at the top.

HIGH TRUST RELATIONSHIPSHIGH TRUST RELATIONSHIPS

Within a system with a clear set of Within a system with a clear set of responsibilities, and where power is responsibilities, and where power is devolved, there is also a high degree of trust devolved, there is also a high degree of trust between the different actors, agencies and between the different actors, agencies and levels.levels.

As a result, reliance on management by simple As a result, reliance on management by simple output targets has become much rarer.output targets has become much rarer.

POLICY RESEARCH & POLICY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENTThe E&T system in 2020 supports, and is supported The E&T system in 2020 supports, and is supported

by, a programme of action research/policy by, a programme of action research/policy development that aims to create the new policy development that aims to create the new policy instruments and agencies needed to address skill instruments and agencies needed to address skill demand and usage issues. demand and usage issues.

Evaluation is built into all policy lines and there are Evaluation is built into all policy lines and there are good feedback loops that allow its fruits to be good feedback loops that allow its fruits to be shared and used across the policy community.shared and used across the policy community.

ONGOING CHALLENGESONGOING CHALLENGESIn 2020 there are still unanswered questions and In 2020 there are still unanswered questions and

challenges:challenges:

• Skills certification: of what, for what, for whom, and how?Skills certification: of what, for what, for whom, and how?

• Adult workforce development v. wider lifelong learningAdult workforce development v. wider lifelong learning

• Developing, sustaining and replicating a cadre of facilitators and Developing, sustaining and replicating a cadre of facilitators and consultants with the expertise to help businesses think about consultants with the expertise to help businesses think about competitive strategies, labour markets, job design and skills in competitive strategies, labour markets, job design and skills in new ways. This requires a very different skill set from someone new ways. This requires a very different skill set from someone whose jobs is to set up a new training course. whose jobs is to set up a new training course.

MORE CHALLENGESMORE CHALLENGES

• Policy makers learning to work across silos Policy makers learning to work across silos and outside the ‘departmental’ box - and outside the ‘departmental’ box - joined up policy is hard.joined up policy is hard.

• Top level policy makers learning to do less Top level policy makers learning to do less and to let go (more really can be less, and and to let go (more really can be less, and less really can be more).less really can be more).

GETTING FROM THE HERE GETTING FROM THE HERE AND NOW TO 2020AND NOW TO 2020

We can only find out what works by trying it!We can only find out what works by trying it!

The only alternative on the table is to go back to The only alternative on the table is to go back to traditional skills supply models.traditional skills supply models.

The country or countries that get closest to the The country or countries that get closest to the kind of model outlined above are liable to have kind of model outlined above are liable to have a big advantage in the C21.a big advantage in the C21.