xtreme continuous change - antifragility strategies

from fragility --> agility

gar@inspiringarchitects.com @aspiringarc

what if xtreme continuous change is the new ‘stable state’

WARNING: work-in-progress

finding antifragility strategies

Your job (later) today?

1. Find me 2.  Share a story 3. Challenge my

hypothesis

open innovation in action

My hypothesis

(what if we are wrong?)

it was a sunny spring morning in Berlin

& 250 other likeminds

Rita Gunther McGrath, Professor Columbia Business School

Rita made me question my assumptions? What if….

1.Industry isn’t stable & understandable 2. Advantages aren’t sustainable 3. Stability isn’t the stable state

What if the new normal is about

TRANSIENT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 1.  We surf short-lived waves (get in & get out) 2.  We compete in arenas (arena = market + segment

+ offer + location) 3.  We accept that change is the stable state (design

for change)

If this was news to business people

Hmm!!

then IT must be in the dark

“denial is the most predictable of all human emotions”

Agenda

I started to question the wisdom of some our actions

(but before we go there)

Steve Blank, UC Berkeley Business School

Eric Ries, Entrepreneur in Residence Harvard Business School

Steve & Eric made me question the way we approach change

1. Use scientific methods & measures 2. Use structured change processes 3. Move from rationalism -> to incrementalism

Lean Change Canvas – leanchange.org

Brian Solis Altimeter Group

Brian tells us that our customers are mutating

Zero Moment Of Truth Ultimate Moment Of Truth

Brian also says experience is everything

(what else is happening)

let’s meet the 4 horsemen of the digital apocalypse

and finally disruptors

debt-ridden fragile rigid

complex

Oh wait I forgot the march of the milennials

47% by 2020

a workforce of digital problem solvers

*MYOA

What capabilities are essential for?

Are their patterns? Are their anti-patterns?

a question today…

(xcc)

the stability dilemma

In a turf war, someone always loses

dynamic competition is ‘the new normal’

Industry A

Industry B

Agenda

I started to question the wisdom of some our actions

in the end it’s all about capability

what is an antifragility architecture?

“wind extinguishes a candle

& energizes fire”

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.1189.pdf

V(X, fΛ, K,s`) OR

in the end your architecture either enables or constrains your business model

so what’s stopping you?

well…you need to break out of the vicious merry-go-round

BAR

PPP

FF

EAM

TIM

SD

SRP

PM

My hypothesis cont.

1.  Change is the new stable state

2.  Build people; provide tools 3.  Assumptions aren’t knowledge

3 Takeaways

“If you want to teach people a new way of thinking, don't bother trying to teach them. Instead, give them a tool, the use of which will lead to new ways of thinking.”

― Richard Buckminster Fuller

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_f_kennedy.html#cWKIWigxSBrHvgq1.99

“Change is the law of life; those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”

JFK

gar@inspiringarchitects.com @aspiringarc http://ie.linkedin.com/in/garmaccriosta www.iasa.ie | www.ivi.ie | www.ics.ie

Research worlds are colliding