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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
10 Dec 2014
Equity Index World Tour
Many countries in deep trouble
Walter J. Zimmermann Jr.
United-ICAP
The market commentary contained in this document represents the opinions of the author. Such opinions are subject to change without notice. Principalsand employees of United-ICAP may or may not trade in the commodities discussed in this document, taking positions similar or opposite to the positionsdiscussed herein. The information contained in this document is taken from sources we believe to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by us as to theaccuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Any traderecommendations contained in this document are generated by Walter Zimmerman who is a registered futures broker with United-ICAP (ICAP CorporatesLLC) and are intended to be a solicitation to enter into the recommended trades through United-ICAP (ICAP Corporates LLC) as futures broker.
Buckminster Fuller’s Dymaxion Map
A projection of a world map onto the surface of an icosahedron, which is then unfolded
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Sixteen Indices
OEX - S&P 100 Index ( USA ) - Marginally higher highs still on tap.
Nasdaq Composite ( USA ) - Huge, ominous bearish rising wedge
Bolsa IPC ( Mexico ) - Would evacuate on a decisive close below 39,635.00
Bovespa ( Brazil ) - The election euphoria peak created the expected bull trap. The trend is still down.
FTSE 100 ( UK ) - No change in outlook. Would evacuate on a decisive close below the rising wedge support line.
MICEX ( Russia ) - Just peaked into ideal resistance. The trend is now down.
DAX Index ( Germany ) - The bullish case is derailed by a deciisve monthly close below 8726.00
CAC ( France ) - The huge, bearish rising wedge up from the 2009 low means there will be no happy ending for the French
MIB 40 ( Italy ) - Bulls have no cushion. It is rally or disaster time.
PSI 20 ( Portugal ) - Speaking of ‘rally or else time’ the next stop on our world tour is the disaster of Portugal.
Athex 20 ( Greece ) - Here is a market that looks much worse than Portugal. Still headed for disaster. Abandon ship.
NSE Nifty ( India ) - The Nifty appears to be on a distant universe far, far away from Southern Europe. Bears need a deep drop.
Hang Seng ( Hong Kong ) - Fast approaching the key support line up from the October 2011 lows.
Shanghai Composite ( China ) - The risk here is that this month’s peak completed a bear market correction up from October 2008.
All Ordinaries ( Australia ) - The Aussie index is poised for a major break down. It is rally or else time for the bulls.
Nikkei ( Japan ) - Nikkei bulls are having a rough month. But bulls have a nice cushion.
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Summary
There are as many national indices with severe
downside risk as there are bullish and neutral
indices combined. This is a world of extremes.
And extremes breed instability.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
OEX ( S&P 100 Index ) - daily
Where is key support ?
• OEX bears have no case whatsoever without a decisive
break below 896.00 without first bettering 921.80
• Without at least a break below 896.00 from here a test
of the 964.00 to 972.00 range is still in the cards.
• From the recent 921.80 high I need a decisive break
below 837.00 to get a major sell signal.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Nasdaq Composite - monthly
Big Bearish Rising Wedge
The all important rising wedge support line cuts this
month at 3689.00 and at 3724.00 for calendar January.
Suggest evacuate this index on a decisive monthly close
below this rising wedge support line.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Nasdaq Composite - monthly
Elliott Wave Resistance
• Peg pivotal Elliott wave resistance for the -C- leg up
to to the 5014.64 area.
• This aligns nicely with the just cited 1.618 -A- = -C-
at the 4924.00 area.
Summary
• Peg 4924.00 - 5015.00 long term resistance
• A decisive break below 3724.00 by late January opens
the door for a retest of the 2002 lows.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Intermediate Term Key Pivots
• Still peg 49,245.00 long term resistance
• Get an intermediate term sell signal on a
decisive break below 39,635.00 from here
Mexican Bolsa IPC Index - monthly
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Mexican Bolsa IPC Index - monthly
Long Term Downside Risk
• Get a long term sell signal on a decisive
break below 35.587.00 from here
• Such a break down would target 17,837.00
- 8 -
the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Brazil’s Bovespa - monthly
Down Trend Channel Still Intact
From August 2014 I has pegged the pop up in the Bovespa as an unsustainable
election euphoria peak. Presidential elections are always the scourge of bulls dur-
ing a bear market. The false hopes that they engender merely create bear market
corrections - bull traps. The run up into September 2014 was no exception.
An acceleration lower through the down trend channel support line in green would
target a retest of the 2008 lows.
Commodity Bubble Bursts Election Euphoria Peak
Election Euphoria Peak
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
UK - FTSE 100 - monthly
Key Pivots
• No change in outlook.
• Bulls still need a decisive close
above the 6937.00 level.
• A break below the rising wedge
support line targets a retest of
the 2003 lows.
- 10 -
the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Russia - MICEX - monthly
Trend Is Down
• Peaked into the pivotal
1627.50 resistance
• Minimum target zone is the
1915.00 to 1000.00 range.
• Next step down would be to
the 695.00 to 625.00 area.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Germany - DAX - monthly
Where is Key Support Now
Bears need a deciisve break down below
8727.00 from here to derail the case for a
continuing up trend and much higher prices.
Held Key Support
In Elliott wave terms bears needed
the decline from the 10500.98 high
to break decisively below the 8108.00
level. Instead the Dax ricocheted
higher from an 8354.97 low.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
France - CAC 40 - monthly
Big Bearish Rising Wedge
• Bulls have zero case without a
decisive break out above the
red wedge resistance line.
• A decisive monthly close below
the green wedge support line
targets the 1725.00 area.
- 13 -
the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Italy - MIB 40 - monthly
Flirting with Disaster
• No change in outlook.
• Bulls still need a decisive break out above
the 22745.00 level.
• A decisive monthly close below the green
support line targets 6280.00 minimum with
2795.00 the next step down from there.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Portugal - PSI 20 - monthly
Rally or Else Time
A decisive monthly close below 4877.00 opens
room down to the 2490.00 area.
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Trend still down
No change in outlook. The message of the price
action is decisive and irrefutable. The failure
to clear the pivotal 500.00 hurdle targets an-
other major leg down. The I = V in percent
loss targets the 110.00 area. That would mark
a 75% loss from the 445.52 high.
Greece - Athex 20 - monthly
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Bullish Case
• This retreat from the 8626.95 high meets solid
support by the 1990.00 area.
• One more leg up to a 9200.00 area peak ensues
• To derail the bullish case a decisive break be-
low 7598.00 from here is required.
See next page for the bearish case.
India - NSE Nifty - monthly
- 17 -
the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Bearish Case
• The bearish case for a completed ABC up from
the 2252.75 low requires a decisive break below
the 7120.00 level.
• On a decisive break below 7120.00 the minimum
downside becomes the 4690.00 area.
India - NSE Nifty - monthly
- 18 -
the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Hong Kong - Hang Seng - monthlyPeaked into Most Bearish Case Resistance
The bottom falls out for the Hang Seng on a decisive monthly
close below the rising wedge support line in green. By the
end of January that line cuts at 22520.00
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
China - Shanghai Composite - monthly
Peaked into Most Bearish Case Resistance
The rally up from the 1935.59 low of June 2013 did not do
the bulls any favors. This rally carried just high enough to
fit the case for a completed bear market correction up
from the 1749.02 low of October 2008. That would be as an
<ABC> with .618 <A> = <C>.
- 20 -
the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Australia - All Ordinaries - monthly Peaked into Key Long Term Resistance
• Reversed sharply lower from pivotal resistance.
• About to break the first rising wedge support line.
Steps Lower
• First rising wedge support line = 5199.0
• Next wedge support line = 4760.0
• Nest step down from there = 3342.0
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the technical advisory service
walter j. zimmermann jr. walterz@united-icap.com
Equity Index World Tour
10 Dec 2014
Inflating the Nikkei
The continuing collapse of the Yen, engineered
by the BOJ, has been having the desired effect.
The value of the Nikkei is inflating. And as in-
tended this inflation is diverting attention from
the rapidly shrinking and ageing population, and
the rapidly exploding national debt.
Japan - Nikkei - monthly
Key Pivots
• Peg 19690.00 key resistance.
• From the recent highs bears
need a decisive break below
15426.00 to have any case.
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