woody biomass for energy in minnesota: consumption and availability

Woody Biomass for Energy in Minnesota:

Consumption and Availability

April 29, 2008

Dr. Steve BratkovichDovetail Partners, Inc.www.dovetailinc.org

Woody Biomass for Energy in Minnesota:

Consumption and Availability

• Energy from biomass – exciting options for Minnesota

• Biomass availability – several studies• Current biomass consumption• A need for better information

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Energy from Biomass: Exciting Opportunities for

Minnesota

Energy from Biomass: Exciting Opportunities for

Minnesota• Minnesota is currently one of the

nation’s leading producers of ethanol and biodiesel.

Energy from Biomass: Exciting Opportunities for

Minnesota• Minnesota is currently one of the

nation’s leading producers of ethanol and biodiesel. Current production is based on corn starch and soybean oil.

Ethanol Production and Consumption in Minnesota

1990-2007

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Production Consumption

Source: Minnesota Department of Commerce (2008).

Net

exp

ort

s

Energy from Biomass: Exciting Opportunities for

Minnesota• Minnesota is currently one of the

nation’s leading producers of ethanol and biodiesel. Current production is based on corn starch and soybean oil.

• Technologies allowing production of ethanol, biodiesel, biobutanol, and other liquid fuels from woody biomass are under development.

Energy from Biomass: Exciting Opportunities for

Minnesota• Minnesota is currently one of the

nation’s leading producers of ethanol and biodiesel. Current production is based on corn starch and soybean oil.

• Technologies allowing production of ethanol, biodiesel, biobutanol, and other liquid fuels from woody biomass are under development. Forest biomass will soon be a preferred raw material.

Ethanol Production and Consumption in Minnesota

1990-2030

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Production Consumption

Source: Minnesota Department of Commerce (2008).

Million

Gallon

s

Biomass Availability in Minnesota – Results of

Several Studies

Availability of Biomass for Energy Production in Minnesota, Based on ONRL

1999 Study*

Resource

Quantity Available(000 dry tons/year)

Quantity Available Without Ag. Residues

(000 dry tons/year)

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t <$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

Forest residues 468 682 875

468 682 875

Mill residues (wd) 71 916 1,121

71 916 1,121

Ag. residues 0 11,936 11,936

Energy crop pot. 0 427 5,783

0 427 5,783

Urban wd waste 1,533 1,533 1,533

1,533 1,533 1,533

Total 2,072 15,494 21,248

2,072 3,558 9,312*Walsh et al. 1999.

Current biomass prices in Minnesota are about $25 /green ton

($50/dry ton).

Availability of Biomass for Energy Production in Minnesota, Based on ONRL

1999 Study*

Resource

Quantity Available(000 dry tons/year)

Quantity Available Without Ag. Residues

(000 dry tons/year)

<$30/t <$40/t <$50/t <$30/t <$40/t <$50/t

Forest residues 468 682 875

468 682 875

Mill residues (wd) 71 916 1,121

71 916 1,121

Ag. residues 0 11,936 11,936

Energy crop pot. 0 427 5,783

0 427 5,783

Urban wd waste 1,533 1,533 1,533

1,533 1,533 1,533

Total 2,072 15,494 21,248

2,072 3,558 9,312*Walsh et al. 1999.

Biomass Resources in Minnesota by Three Studies

Source of Biomass

Biomass in Resources from ORNL database (tons/year

at < $50/ton)

Biomass Resources from NREL GIS Group (tons/year)

Biomass Resource est. from

1997 Institute for Local Self-Reliance

(tons/year)

Forest residue

874,900 - -

Mill residue 1,121,000 1,017,688 571,960

Agricultural residue

11,935,896

40,709,527

22,040,438

Energy crops

5,783,002 - -

Urban wood waste

1,532,529

-

-

Total 21,247,327 41,727,215 22,612,398

Source: NREL (2005)

Biomass Source

Current

Near-Term Achievable

Future Potential

NotesDry tons/yr. Dry tons/yr. Dry tons/yr.

Roundwood 0 1,495,000 1,495,000 Current 3.7 m cord harvest; future 5.5m

Harvest Residues

750,000 1,155,000 1,155,000 Residues from specified harvest level

Red Pine Thinning

184,000 310,500 409,400 50% of volume in 1st thinning assumed fuelwood

Aspen Thinning 0 0 1,000,000 100,000 ac. @ 10 tons/ac.

Brushlands 0 400,000 400,000

Energy Crops 0 0 5,600,000 3.5 tons/ac/yr yield, 1.6 million acres

Total 934,000 3,360,500 10,059,400Berguson, NRRI 2007.

NRRI Study of Minnesota Forest-based Biomass Availability for Energy

Production

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Study: 3,558,000 9,312,000

$40/ton $50/ton

Biomass Source

Current

Near-Term Achievable

Future Potential

NotesDry tons/yr. Dry tons/yr. Dry tons/yr.

Roundwood 0 1,495,000 1,495,000 Current 3.7 m cord harvest; future 5.5m

Harvest Residues

750,000 1,155,000 1,155,000 Residues from specified harvest level

Red Pine Thinning

184,000 310,500 409,400 50% of volume in 1st thinning assumed fuelwood

Aspen Thinning 0 0 1,000,000 100,000 ac. @ 10 tons/ac.

Brushlands 0 400,000 400,000

Energy Crops 0 0 5,600,000 3.5 tons/ac/yr yield, 1.6 million acres

Total 934,000 3,360,500 10,059,400Berguson, NRRI 2007.

NRRI Study of Minnesota Forest-based Biomass Availability for Energy

Production

Note the large assumed contribution of energy crops (plantations) to future woody biomass supply. This will require planning, investment. Without energy crops, future availability is only 3.4 million dry tons annually.

Current Consumption of Biomass in Minnesota

Biomass consumption data courtesy of:

Mimi Barzen, MN Dept of Natural

Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

Consumption figures presented for four regions:

• St Paul/Rosemount/Sartell/Little Falls/Benson/ Collegeville.

• Grand Rapids/Mountain Iron/Virginia/Hibbing/ /Hoyt Lakes/Marcell/Deer River/Bemidji.

• Duluth/Superior/Cloquet/Ashland/Park Falls.

• International Falls/Fort Francis/Grand Marais/ Thunder Bay

Biomass consumption estimates from Mimi Barzen, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

1,270,000 - 1,320,000 gt/yr.

Current Woody Biomass Consumption in and near Minnesota

769,000 gt/yr.

520,000 –gt/yr.

320,000 – 380,000 gt/yr.

Biomass consumption estimates from Mimi Barzen, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

Current Woody Biomass Consumption in and Near Minnesota

3,000,000 – 3,120,000 gt/yr.

1.5 – 1.6 million dry tons/yr.

Biomass consumption estimates from Mimi Barzen, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

Current Woody Biomass Consumption in Minnesota

If considering consumption within the

borders of Minnesota only, then this number becomes

2,000,000 – 2,050,000 gt/yr.

1.0 – 1.1 million dry tons/yr.

Biomass consumption estimates from Mimi Barzen, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

1,300,000 - 1,350,000 gt/yr.

Current and Announced Woody Biomass Consumption in and near

Minnesota1,519,000 gt/yr.

910,000 –gt/yr.

579,000 – 879,000 gt/yr.

Biomass consumption estimates from Mimi Barzen, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

Current and Announced Woody Biomass Consumption in and Near

Minnesota

4,600,000 – 4,650,000 gt/yr.

2.3 million dry tons/yr.

Biomass consumption estimates from Mimi Barzen, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, and Calder Hibbard, University of

Minnesota, St. Paul.

Current and Announced Woody Biomass Consumption in Minnesota

Again, if considering consumption within the

borders of Minnesota only, then this number becomes

2,800,000 gt/yr.

1.4 million dry tons/yr.

A comparison of current consumption of woody biomass

for energy production with estimates of biomass availability suggests considerable potential

for expansion.

Compare current Minnesota consumption (1.0 mdt/yr.) and current

plus developing consumption (1.4 mdt/yr.) with the following estimates

that do not include volumes from energy crops or plantations:

3.1 mdt/yr – NREL ($40/ton)

3.5 mdt/yr – NREL ($50/ton)

3.4 mdt/yr – Berguson near termPotential exists for about 2.5X expansion if all estimates are correct, and all volumes

identified are realistically available.

Also, compare current Minnesota consumption (1.0 mdt/yr.) and current

plus developing consumption (1.4 mdt/yr.) with the following estimates that do include volumes from energy

crops or plantations:

3.6 mdt/yr – NREL ($40/ton)

9.3 mdt/yr – NREL ($50/ton)

10.1 mdt/yr – Berguson future

In this case a 6 to 7-fold expansion might be possible.

Conclusions:

• It would appear, based on various estimates of biomass availability and recent estimates of consumption, that there is room for significant expansion of biomass consumption for energy production. The greatest expansion potential is linked to plantation development.

Conclusions:

• If full biomass energy potential from woody biomass is to be realized, planning and investment in dedicated tree plantations for energy development will be needed. It is not too early to embark on this process.

Conclusions:

• In areas where significant volumes of woody biomass and agricultural residues both exist, development of facilities capable of handling both types of biomass should be considered; this possibility significantly increases the potential for biomass energy development in some regions.

Conclusions:

• All current use and announced expansions involve production of electricity or fuel pellets.

• In the future, and perhaps soon, liquid biofuels and biochemicals will emerge as options for use of woody biomass, posing a new source of competition for this resource.

Conclusions:

• Biomass availability estimates are highly variable and none (with perhaps the exception of Berguson) consider what volume is realistically available.• Biomass consumption and availability within Minnesota is not being monitored by any state agency or institution. It should be.

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