weekly market update 8-12-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa8-12-16.pdf2016/08/12  · back in april...

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Weekly Market Update 8-12-16

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Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

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Themarkethaschanged.Perhapsthesinglemostdifficultpartofinvestingduringabubbleisthatassetpricesbecomecompletelydisconnectedfromtheirtrueunderlyingdrivers(earningsandeconomicgrowth).Forthisreason,bubblescanalwayslastlongerthanonethinks.Andthisbubblehasproventobethecase.BackinApril2015,Inotedthatwehadreceivedararemonthly“sell”signalontheS&P500.ThatsellsignalwastherarebutoftenHIGHLYaccurateSELLonthemonthlyMACD.

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 8-12-16

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AtthattimeIwrote:

Asyoucansee,thissignalhasbeenfairlyaccurateforpickingtops.Ofcourseit’smoreofanartthanasciencewhenitcomestotimingtheendofabullmarket(twoofthe“sell”signalshitonshort-termtopsin1998and2011,asopposedtotheultimatemarkettopswhichcamelater).However,itisworthnotingthatevenduringthoseperiodsinwhich“sell”signalsonlycoincidedwithtemporarytops(1998and2011),BOTHtimesstocksstagedadramaticcollapsebeforebeginningtheirnextlegup.~PrivateWealthAdvisory4/1/15

Thekeyitemwasthatwiththis“Sell”triggerinplace,stockswouldhavetogoabsolutelyVERTICALotherwisethebullmarketstarted2009wasOVER.ThiswasourcentralthesisforinvestingfromApril2015untiltoday.Anditservedusverywell.However,themarketHASgonevertical,breakingoutofatwoyeartradingrangetotheupsideonthemonthlychart.

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Whyhasthishappened?Thebondbubble.AsI’vewrittenbefore,theBondBubbleisthesinglemostimportantfactorinthefinancialsystem.EverymajormonetarypolicyemployedbyCentralBankssince2008hasbeenaboutmaintainingtheBondBubblebyanymeanspossible.ThemostaggressivepolicyconcernedthemovetoNegativeInterestRatePolicy(NIRP)bytheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)inmid-2014andtheBankofJapan(BoJ)inearly2016.Whenthishappened,bondsforbotheconomiesbegantobreakout,pushingtheiryieldsintonegativeterritory.WHYDOESTHISMATTER?Becausethishascompletelyskewedtheentireinvestinglandscape.Withbondsnowpostingnegativeyieldsasfarouras10yearsinJapanand30-50yearsforsomeEUmembers,stockshavebecomeEXTREMELYattractivefromayieldperspective.Putanotherway,theoldadage“buybondsforincomeandstocksforcapitalgains”hascompletelyreversed.Investorsarenowbuyingbondsforcapitalgainsbyfront-runningCentralBanks…andinvestorsarebuyingSTOCKSforincome.Inthesimplesttermspossible,withbondsnowCHARGINGyoumoneytoownthem,investorsareseekingoutyieldinstocks.TheS&P500currentlyyields2.3%,whichisverylittle.ButcomparedtobeingCHARGEDtoownsomething,2.3%isMASSIVELYpositive.Asaresultofthis,stocksarebreakingout,drivenlargelybytradingalgorithmsprogramedtofindyieldanywherepossible.Thishaspushedstockstobreakoutofthatmassivetwoyearstradingrangetotheupside.ThisbreakouthasrefutedmythesisthatTHETOPisin.AsIsaidinApril2015,stocksneededtogoverticaltorefutethemonthlysellsignal.Theyhavedoneso.Anditnowlooksasthoughwe’reprimingforafinalblowoffrallytonewhighstosuckerineveryonebeforethebubblebursts.Howhighwillwego?

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TheS&P500willprobablytrytomakearunfor2,300.However,itfirstneedstoretesttheupperlineofthetradingrangetoconfirmthatthisupwardsbreakoutistheREALDEALandnotafalsebreakout.

Tobeveryclear…Stocksareseverelyoverboughtandoverextendedintheshort-term.WeNEEDtoseethatre-testoftheupperline.Thatwillbethemostcriticalpointforstocks.

• Ifthelineholds,thebubblewillenterafinalblowofftoptomid-2,200ifnot2,300.

• IfthelinedoesNOThold,it’safalsebreakoutandwe’regoingto1,900ontheS&P500andTHEtopisin.

Irealizetheaboveanalysisisprobablyshockingtomanyofyou.Butmycentralthesis(thatweareinabubblethatwillresolveinaCrashfargreaterthan2008)hasnotchanged.Theonlythingthathaschangedismytimelineforthisevent.Thefactisthatweareincompletelyunchartedwatersinthefinancialsystem.NEVERinhistoryhaveweseen$13trillioninbondspostingnegativeyields.Thisisbeyondlunacy…itisoutrightludicrous.

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ItlookedasthoughthegamewasupbackinlateFebruary/earlyMarchwhentheBoJwenttoNIRP.Atthattime,theYensurgedaggressivelyandtheJapanesebondmarketalmostcollapsed.

However,Japangotahandleonthesituation,andthebondbubblecontinued.Atthatpoint,twoofthefivemajorCentralBanksintheworldwereatNIRP.Andthemarketbeganitssharpbreakout.PutverysimplyCentralBankshavebettheentirefinancialsystemontheirtheories.TheprofessionalinvestorclasshasnochoicebuttodancetothetunetheDevilisplaying.Sohereismycentralthesisgoingforward:

1. Stocksandriskingeneralareseverelyoverboughtandneedtocorrect.ThiswillfeaturetheS&P500fallingto2,100orso,Oilplungingtosub-$40,andprobablyGoldandSilvercorrectingaswell.

2. AtthatpointtheMAJORmovehigher(theblowofftop)willbegin.AsImentionedearlier,theS&P500willprobablyshootfor2,300.Thisrepresentsabreakoutequaltothewidthofthetradingrange(200points)abovetheoldline(2,100).

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Oilwillprobablymakearunto$60perbarrel.

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InaworldinwhichbondsarenowNEGATIVE,preciousmetals,whichyieldZERO,arenowVERYattractive.Yes,we’vereachedthepointatwhichfinanceissoscrewedupthataZEROyieldisHIGHLYattractivefromanincomeperspective.Withthatinmind…Goldwillprobablymakearunto$1600.However,firstwe’recorrectingto$1,100orso.

Silverwillprobablymakearunto$27.50.However,firstwehaveadatewith$15.00.

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Mytimelinefortheaboveis:

1) Thecorrectioninriskassetsshouldhitinthenext3-4weeks.Afterthat…

2) Thefinalblowofftopwillhitandrunintoearly2017.Forthisreason,we’resittingonourhedgesfornow.Iexpectquiteafewofthemwillendbeinglosses,butbywaitingforthecorrectiontohit,thelosseswillbesmallerthantheyarenow.Oncethecorrectionhits,wewillunloadthesehedgesandclosemanyofourshorts.AtthatpointwewillbebuyingHEAVILYinpreciousmetalsminers,someoilplays,andsomeindividualstocks.Ialsoexpectwe’llseeUSTreasuryyieldsfallaggressivelytotrademoreinlinewithJapanandGermansovereignbondsyields.

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Thatwillbethefinalstageinthebubble.Itwillbetheultimatetrapthatluresinvestorsin.AsI’venotedbefore,thislatestbreakouthasoccurreddespitemostinvestorsSELLING.AsZeroHedgehasnoted,theSmartMoneyhasbeensellingstocksthroughout2016.Thiscontinuedlastweekasstockshitnewhighs.

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Oncestockscorrect/putinanewbase,itwillbethefinaltrapthatluresinvestorsintostocks.Thiswillbewhatpropelsthefinalblowofftopto2,300.Andthat’swhenTHERESETwillbegin.OncetheBondBubblegoes,THERESETwillbegin.THERESETwilltakeyearstounfoldbutwillendwhentheS&P500fallstonewlowsbelowtheMarch2009lows.Currentlymytargetis400orsoontheS&P500.

Here’stheVERYBIGPICTURE…Since2000wehavehadsuccessivebubblesinmoreandmoreseniorassetclasses.TheTechBubblewasastockbubble.ThencametheHousingBubble,whichrepresentedthesinglelargestassetclassmostconsumerseverpurchase(homes).WearenowintheBONDbubbleorabubbleforENTIRECOUNTRIES.Whenthisbubblebursts,(whenbondsimplode),theRESETwillhit.Atthatpoint,Gold,Silver,andanythingthatisacrisishedge/currencythatcannotbetrashed,willgoBALLISTIC.

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Ontothemarkets!Thewarningsignsofthenear-termcorrectionarealreadyhere.Indeed,itlookslikeanotherroundofdeflationishittingasIwritethis.Long-termUSbonds(TLT)havebrokenoutofawedgepattern.

Commodityproducers,likeUSSteel(X)arealreadyrollingoversharply.

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ActiontoTake:ShortUSSteel(X).BasicmetalsproducerRioTinto(RIO)looksreadytogo.

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ActiontoTake:ShortRioTinto(RIO)Freeport-McMoran(FCX)isabouttotakeoutitsrallytrendline.

ActiontoTake:ShortFreeport-McMoran(FCX).Preciousmetalswillbenext.Silverlooksverysicktome.$17isbeckoning,henceourowningUltraShortSilverETF(ZSL).

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ThestoryisthesameforGold.We’vesimplycometoofartoofast.Iwouldn’tbesurprisedtoseeabreakto$1150,henceourexposureviatheUltraShortGoldETF(GLL).

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Thisconcludesthisweek’sWeeklyMarketUpdate.Inconclusion,thebreakoutinriskassetshasalteredtheinvestmentlandscape.ItissettingthestageforafinalblowofftoptosuckerinEVERYONE.ThisblowofftopwillbedrivenbyacrazedsearchforyieldandthebeliefthatCentralBankscansomehowmaintainthebondbubbleasmoreandmorebondyieldsmoveintonegativeterritory.However,intheverynearterm,weareoverdueforanotherroundofdeflation.Theriskonrallyneedstocool/correct.Wewillbeusingthiscorrectiontogetoutofourhedgesandprepareforthefinalblowofftop.Mycentralthesisremainsthesame…butthetiminghasshifted.TheRESETloomsbutistakinglongerthanIthoughtitwould.ThisisALWAYStheproblemwithbubbles…andwillbeparticularlytruefortheBONDBUBBLE,thesinglelargestbubbleinfinancialhistory.However,thefactremains,theCentralBankshavecompletelybackedthemselvesintoacorner.With$13trillioninbondspostingnegativeyields,theycannottightenwithoutblowingupthebondbubble.EVER.Thefinalblowofftopbeckons.Afterthat,THERESETbegins.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourusualWeeklyMarketUpdate.Untilthen…

ChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 $24.7213%

UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.68 $24.01 -13% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $60.47 -36%

RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $16.30 42% Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.78 $73.96 5% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $87.79 -2% 7-10YrTreasuryETF UST 11/26/14 $55.54 $64.09 17%

20+YrTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 $140.10 23% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $10.71 -31% Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.21 $108.01 -4%

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon8/12/16at2:30PM

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INFLATION PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10

$1,120$1,342.00

20%

Silver* 3/17/10

$16.23$19.73 22%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $14.38 -7%*Avg.priceof$17.50and$14.97

RETAILMELTDOWNPORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Amazon(SHORT) AMZN 2/25/15 $484.19 $771.08 -59% AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 $18.90 -23%

*Avg.priceof$385.37and$583

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon8/12/16at2:30PM

20

MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $42.30 -37% UltraShortEmergingMarketETF EEV 1/20/16 $24.03 $15.41 -36% UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $32.39 -46% UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 1/20/16 $74.40 $19.98 -73% UltraShortFinancials* SKF 2/10/16 $56.82 $40.68 -28% UltraShortRussell2000ETF** TWM 2/10/16 $47.92 $30.37 -37% UltraShortGoldETF GLL 5/26/16 $82.75 $68.39 -17% UltraShortSilverETF ZSL 7/20/16 $29.20 $27.69 -5% UltraShortS&P500ETF SDS 7/27/16 $16.60 $16.36 -1% USSteel(SHORT) X 8/12/16 $21.08 NEW SHORT RioTinto(SHORT) RIO 8/12/16 $31.08 NEW SHORT Freeport-McMoran(SHORT) FCX 8/12/16 $11.75 NEW SHORT

*Avgpriceof$60.95and$51.69**Avgpriceof$52.94and$42.90

EU BANKING CRISIS PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL

BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuropeanFinancialsETF EUFN 7/5/16 $14.86 $16.82 -13%CreditSuisses CS 7/5/16 $10.30 $12.00 -17% DeutscheBank(SHORT) DB 7/5/16 $14.18 $14.23 0% Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $4.13 $4.27 -3% Barclays(SHORT) BCS 7/5/16 $7.92 $8.46 -7% Pricesasofmarket’scloseon8/12/16at2:30PM

21

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%

UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%

UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%

UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%

EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%

UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%

Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%

BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14

$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%

ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30

5/20/15 $65.27 4%

RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36

7%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

22

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%

UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%

Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%

IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%

UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF(half)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)

SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%

LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%

AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%

UltraShortEmergingMktsETF

EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

23

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%

ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17

8/24/15 $43.82 10%

IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%

AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)

FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%

UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84

8/26/15 $132.02 9%

UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%

UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%

CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)

FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%

Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%

UltraShortSemiconductorsETF

SSG9/18/15

$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%

UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16

9/24/15 $199.00 16%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%

24

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Santander(SHORT)SAN

10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%

UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00

11/27/15 $117.38 5%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18

13%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46

9%

BancoDeChile(Short)

BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%

RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35

12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14

12/8/15 $23.767%

SpainETF(SHORT)EWP

9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%

UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF

EEV12/17/15

$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%

SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31

1/7/16 $9.57 7%

MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%

FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ

9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%

Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14

1/13/16 $30.04119%

Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73

1/13/16 $716.2169%

Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14

1/13/16 $32.4036%

Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34

1/13/16 $72.6838%

25

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%

UltraShortFinancialsSKF

9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20

5%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)

EUFN1/6/16

$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33

1/15/16$23.58 6%

MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50

1/15/16 $7.16 5%

Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79

27%

McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25

29%

Santander(SHORT)SAN

1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%

RetailETF(SHORT)XRT

1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%

Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80

1/22/16 $41.8121%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57

1/22/16 $27.9120%

EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09

20%

UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15

$48.051/22/16 $52.23

12%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16

8%

Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70

16%

26

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.152/8/16 $81.55 11%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(half)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/9/16

$10.88 10% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(half) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/9/16$9.09 12%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)(half) DB 2/3/16 $16.65

2/9/16$14.95 10%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(otherhalf)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/11/16

$10.71 11% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(otherhalf) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/11/16$8.64 17%

GoldMinersETF GDX 5/13/15 $17.49 3/23/16 $19.22 11% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 1/27/16 $19.12 3/23/16 $26.91 41% SilverStandardResources SSRI

4/20/16 $8.08 4/28/16 $9.0812%

DRDGOLD DRD 4/20/16 $4.34 4/28/16 $4.97 15%

OilETF OIL 3/17/16 $5.64 4/29/16 $6.17 9% SugarETN SGG 4/27/16 $35.79 5/12/16 $38.66 8%

DBCommoditiesETN DBC 3/17/16 $13.59 5/19/16 $14.466%

WheatETF WEAT 4/27/16 $9.03 6/7/16 $9.44 5% AgricultureETN RJA 4/27/16 $6.49 6/7/16 $6.87 6% DeutscheBank(SHORT)(otherhalf) DB 2/3/16 $16.65 6/9/16 $15.68 6% UltraShortOilETF SCO 5/26/16 $79.52 6/14/16 $83.50 5% SpainETF(SHORT)(otherhalf) EWP 1/22/16 $26.44 6/14/16 $25.46 4%

27

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

NovaGold NG4/20/16 $5.95 6/24/16 $6.51

9%

GoldMinersETF GDX6/8/16 $26.36 6/24/16 $26.86

2%

GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ6/8/16 $40.21 6/24/16 $42.22

5%

DRDGOLD DRD6/8/16 $5.12 6/24/16 $5.47

7%

SilverStandardResources SSRI

6/8/16 $11.09 6/24/16 $12.2611%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.866/27/16

$3.61 6%

GermanyETF(SHORT) EWG 3/10/16 $24.256/27/16

$22.86 6%

USNaturalGasFund UNG6/8/16 $7.44 6/27/16 $8.11

9%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB 7/5/16

$13.45 7/6/16 $12.50 7%

Barclays(SHORT)BCS 7/5/16

$7.23 7/6/16 $6.88 5%

UltraShortOilETFSCO 7/6/16

$84.54 7/8/16 $92.52 9%

Stamps.com(SHORT) STMP 5/26/16 $84.407/11/16 $78.31 7%

UltraShortOilETFSCO 7/20/16

$92.70 7/25/16 $102.47 11%