wecc resource adequacy methods and assessmentewh.ieee.org/cmte/pes/rrpa/rrpa_files/lbp20120726/item...

WECC Resource Adequacy Methods and Assessment

John Fazio, NW Power and Conservation Council

IEEE RRPA Subcommittee

San Diego, CaliforniaSan Diego, California

July 26, 2012

Western Electricity Coordinating Council

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WECC OrganizationWECC Organization

Loads and ResourcesSubcommittee 3

LRS DirectiveLRS Directive

• Under the direction of the Planning Coordination Committee • The Loads and Resources Subcommittee (LRS) and its 

respective workgroups oversees– the collection and dissemination of WECC load and resource datathe collection and dissemination of WECC load and resource data– directs studies assessing resource adequacy within WECC– addresses load and resource activities at NERC

• Most recent report: “2011 Power Supply Assessment,”  November 17, 2011 (link provided below), ( p )

http://www.wecc.biz/library/WECC%20Documents/Publications/Power%20Supply%20Assessments/2011%20Power%20Supply%20Assessment.pdfpp y p

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WECC MethodologyWECC Methodology

• Capacity only (single hour)Capacity only (single hour)

• Deterministic analysis (PROMOD)R– Resources

– Loads

– Transmission

• Capacity margin + target reserve margin* must be greater than zero

*Target reserve margins vary by sub‐region (see next slide)5

Target RMs Vary by Sub‐region( )(2011 Report)

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WECC Winter Assessment(2011 Report)

hold

Thresh

Highlights beginning and end values for the PNW  7

PNWWinter AssessmentPNW Winter Assessment(2010 Study)

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WECC Summer Assessment(2011 R t)(2011 Report)

dThreshold

T

Highlights beginning and end values for the PNW  9

PNW Summer AssessmentPNW Summer Assessment(2010 Study)

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WECC AssessmentWECC Assessment

• Mostly summer issuesMostly summer issues

• Some sub‐regions will fall short within the next 5 to 10 yearsnext 5 to 10 years

• Assessment for the PNW looks OK (from WECC’ i )WECC’s perspective)

• Different result from PNW Adequacy Forum (see next slide) 

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Draft Adequacy Assessment for 2015(Not for Distribution)

• Supply is adequate through 2015 (LOLP < 5%)

• LOLP dominated by capacity events• LOLP dominated by capacity events

• Sensitive to SW market availability 

• Summer capacity issues could arise between 2015 and 2017

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