weather windows
Post on 02-Nov-2015
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1Weather windows. Example: Towing of module across North Sea.
ProblemThe barge can not widthstand Hs>5m in beam seasThis may occur if the barge is in free drift, I.e. towline breaks and Hs > 5m..
Main dataDuration of tow 60 hoursStart: If weather forecast on Hs < 3m is at least 48 hours
QuestionWhat is the probability of failure?
Approacha. and b. are 100% correlated.Find the probability of Hs>5m if the forecast says Hs
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2Wave statistics - scatter diagram
1 1 : 2 2: 3 03:04 04:05 05:06 06:07 07:08 08:09 09:10 10:11 11:12 12:13 13:14 14:15 15:16 16:17 17
0.5 7 18 5 2 32 321 215 691 376 77 6 1 1366 1398
1.5 82 1380 1161 354 67 3 1 3048 44462 13 797 1502 739 217 25 1 3294 7740
2.5 176 1314 826 287 66 8 2677 104173 1 22 734 851 359 77 25 4 2 1 2076 12493
3.5 11 244 873 381 133 34 8 2 1686 141794 6 76 669 481 162 50 7 1 1 1 1454 15633
4.5 2 22 350 440 159 47 3 3 1026 166595 1 10 104 400 161 44 9 1 1 731 17390
5.5 4 38 292 163 43 10 3 553 179436 1 14 149 169 60 17 5 415 18358
6.5 3 59 178 33 14 1 288 186467 28 130 42 10 210 18856
7.5 17 69 62 6 1 155 190118 47 60 6 113 19124
8.5 19 63 7 89 192139 9 43 8 3 63 19276
9.5 2 31 10 1 44 1932010 6 12 2 20 19340
10.5 2 16 18 1935811 1 11 2 14 19372
11.5 1 4 5 1937712 1 1 19378
12.5 1 2 3 1938113 1 1 19382
13.5 0 1938214 1 1 19383
14.5 0 1938315 0 1938315 0 19383
0 193830 193830 19383
0 0 0 318 3104 5449 4900 3184 1573 657 164 30 3 1 0 0 0 0 19383 5607850.0 0.000 0.000 1.641 16.01
428.11
225.28
016.42
78.115 3.390 0.846 0.155 0.015 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 100.0
0 0.00 0.00 1.64 17.65 45.77 71.05 87.47 95.59 98.98 99.82 99.98 99.99 100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
200 200
Zero crossing periodS
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3Wave statistics. Cumulative probability of significant wave height P(Hm0)
One year extreme: 10.7 m10 year extreme : 12.7 m100 year extreme : 14.6 m
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447
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Pipeline repair, large water depthInspection Large monohull Large semisubInstall welding habitat Large monohull Large semisub
34
Large crane vesselMooringPiling
54
3.5
Drill ship (head seas)DrillingRunning casingBOP and riser handling
3
1072
42
1.5
SemisubmersibleDrillingRunning casingBOP and riser handlingMooring
Significantwave height
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