weather services for emergency management
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Weather Services for Emergency Management
John Paul Cragg
March 2012
Meteorological Service of Canada
Calgary June 2005
Edmonton July 11, 2004
Calgary November 27, 2011Calgary August 9, 1999W Maple Creek, June 19, 2010 (Kevin Wingert)
Pine Lake July 14, 2000 (Dennis Dudley)
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• Environment Canada Meteorologists, Who We Are
• The Impacts Of Weather On Saskatchewan
• Weather Information That Environment Canada Provides And Where You Can Find It
• Extra Services Provided To EMO• Future EC Weather Services
Weather Services for Emergency Management
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Warning Preparedness Meteorologist
• Focus on Severe/High Impact weather• Media spokesperson Severe/High
Impact Weather• Work with Emergency Measure
Organizations (Environment Canada products and services, weather safety and preparedness, reviewing and participating emergency exercises, etc.)
• Storm Site Surveys (major weather event)
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PASPC- Largest area of responsibility
in the world– ~140 forecast regions– Over 800 warning regions– Large marine responsibility– 9 Doppler Radars
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The impacts of weather
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Natural Disasters
• In Canada over the last century,
80% of all natural disasters were Weather or Water related!!!
(Pine Lake July 2000, photo courtesy Dennis Dudley EC)
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Emergencies – Direct Result of Weather• Thunderstorms (large hail, damaging
winds, intense lightning, flash flooding)• Damaging winds (non Thunderstorm)• Heavy Rains (flooding)• Tornadoes (Saskatchewan ~ 12/year)• Heavy Snow• Blizzards• Extreme Wind chills• Freezing Rain
1991-2010 avg. Severe Thunderstorm Event Stats
Of course, this only includes the events we are told about or otherwise detect!
EVENT TYPE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN MANITOBA TOTAL
HAIL 49 47 32 128
WIND 14 18 11 44
TORNADO 11 12 9 31
RAIN 7 6 7 21
TOTAL 81 84 59 224
Plus Lightning!
Total Lightning Days Summer 2010
14
Flooding
July 1st 2010– Thunderstorm complex tracked through central SK into the MB Interlake. Golf ball to baseball sized hail in central SK and flash flooding in Yorkton, SK.
15
Flooding
July 22nd 2010– Slow-moving intense thunderstorm produced 125 mm (5 inches) of rain in the North Battleford.
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Tornadoes
Widespread Damage from Devastating F3 Tornado in Kawacatoose First Nation and around Raymore and Semans, July 2, 2010.
Winter Severe Weather• Kills and injuries many more Canadians than
Summer Severe Weather– Traffic collisions– Snow shovelling– Slips and falls– Hypothermia/exposure to cold
• Storms on a massive scale with large impacts
Scale of a Summer Storm
One storm covering part of a countyOne storm covering part of a county
LX
SnowHeavySnow
RainShowers
Freezing Rain
One storm covering thousands of square kilometres
Scale of a Winter Storm
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Emergencies – Weather Secondary Impact
• Major Fires• Well Blow-outs• Pipeline ruptures• Train Derailments• Major Chemical spills/releases• Etc.
Weather Information that Environment Canada provides and
where you can find it
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Environment Canada’s Weather Service number 1 mandate is to provide Canadians with as much lead time as possible in advance of severe events throughout the year
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Environment Canada Watch/Warning Program
Weather Warnings, Weather Watches
and Special Weather Statements
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Special Weather Statement
• Significantly unusual and noteworthy weather that does not necessarily meet weather warning criteria
– Early or Late seasonal Snowfall (less than 10 cm)
– Extensive fog, smoke or airborne dust– Patchy freezing drizzle
• Lead time 12 hours to 2 days
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Weather Watch
WATCH - Yellow Alert– Nothing may be happening, but the potential exists for severe
thunderstorms to develop within the next few hours (watch generally issued with 2-6 hrs lead time)
– Stay tuned for updated forecasts/warnings
Summer (Thunderstorm and Tornadoes)- target lead time Tornado watch: 1 to 2 hours- target lead time for Thunderstorm watch: 6 hours
Winter (Winter Storms)- target lead time 12 to 48 hours
Weather Warning
WARNING – Red Alert– Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
• Severe weather is occurring or immanent, Take immediate action!– Other Weather Warnings
• Severe weather is occurring or is expected to occur within the next 12 hours
Summer (Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms)- target lead time for Tornado Warnings: 30 minutes- target lead time for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 30 minutes
Other Weather Warnings (Blizzard, Snowfall, Rainfall, Wind, etc)- target lead time 12 hours
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Weather Watch – Be aware of the potential dangers!
Weather Warning – Take Action!
Lightning…
• Environment Canada Does not issue Watches and Warnings if lightning is the only threat.
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www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
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www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings
Large Scale Regions – Forecasts, Watches, Winter Warnings
Small Scale Warning Regions –Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado
RadarRadarImageryImagery
• Imagery available in Imagery available in near real-timenear real-time
• Loops at 10 minute Loops at 10 minute intervals over a 1 or 3 intervals over a 1 or 3 hour periodhour period
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Historical Weather Data
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Seasonal Forecasts
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Seasonal Forecasts
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Seasonal Forecasts
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Seasonal Forecasts
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(*62 City Pages)
Weatheradio
• Continuous broadcast of weather info• Line of sight broadcast…trees, hills
may disrupt signal• Standby mode Tone Alert when
Warnings issued• Specific Area Message Encoding –
(SAME) Get the Warnings for YOUR area
• Special frequencies…so require a special receiver
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Extra Services Provided To EMO
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Environment Canada EMO Training Sessions
1) Weather Services for EMO’s2) Weather Safety and Weather
Preparedness (general weather)3) Storm Recognition (summer focus)
Emergency Exercises
• Assist in hazard identification and risk assessment• Assist in exercise design• Provision of mock weather bulletins • Presentation on severe weather as prelude to exercise
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EC Storm Prediction Centres
•1 800-66STORM (1 800 667 8676)
• To be used by Emergency Management Personnel (municipal, provincial or federal) for major emergencies or catastrophic events when;– Current weather forecast lacks detail necessary to combat
situation or Significant discrepancy between EC weather forecast and current conditions
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Wabamum, AB August 3, 2005
• 43 Rail cars derailed• Up to 1.3 million litres of heavy Bunker
C Fuel Oil spilled from rail cars• Spilled substance made it to the lake• Emergency request made to
Environment Canada to provide specialized point weather forecast to assist clean-up operations
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Specialized Product
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Tsuu T’ina Nation Garbage Fire Feb 15, 2012
(SW Calgary, Feb 15/12, Rick Donkers YYC Herald)
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Hythe AB, Gas Well Blow-Out
• February 24, 2010• Gas well blow-out• Environment Canada
Environmental Emergency Response Section
• (Dec 20, 2011 Port Lambton On Marina fire, dispersion model information available in 58 minutes)
(Photo courtesy CBC News)
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Specialized Product
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Future EC Weather Services
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Future EC Weather Services – I-Alert
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Future EC Weather Services – I-Alert (email notification)
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Future EC Weather Services – I-Alert
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I-Alert Output
(Long Message) (Short Message)
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MASAS (Multi-Agency Situational Awareness System)
Goal: Enable sharing of location based situational awareness non-sensitive informationand alerts between Emergency Management and Response Agencies
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MASAS•www.MASAS-X.ca(view or apply to sign up)
•www.MASAS.ca(technical details)
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Future EC Weather Services “Early Notification Project”
• Providing some type of information service to highlight significant weather for a 3 day period
• Focus on “High Impact Weather”• Base weather information on known
weather sensitivities
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EMO Weather Outlook (Example)
Significant Weather Discussion for Ontario Provincial Emergency Operations Centre provided by Environment Canada’s Ontario Storm Prediction Centre issued at 5:00 AM EST Friday 20 January 2012. Discussion valid for today, tonight and Saturday with an outlook for Sunday.
Today… Cold Arctic air will generate flurries and localized snow squalls to the east of Lake Superior, affecting Hwy 17. A snow squall watch will likely be upgraded to a warning as the squalls intensify later this morning. Snowfall amounts up to 15 centimetres are possible. Otherwise no significant weather is expected.
Tonight... Flurries and squalls east of Lake Superior will gradually weaken and shift south. An area of snow from a passing disturbance south of the Great Lakes will give upwards of 5 cm across southwestern Ontario (grazing the GTA). There is high confidence in this event.
Saturday… No significant weather is expected.
Outlook for Sunday... A more significant disturbance will head towards the upper Great Lakes with 10 to 15 centimetres of snow possible around Lake Superior and northeast toward Hearst and Timmins.
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In Closing;1)1 800 667 8676 (Emergency Environment Canada
Weather Services Contact Number)
2)Specialized Emergency Services for EMO’s (emergency phone consultation, atmospheric dispersion products, specialized forecasts for longer term catastrophic situations, etc.)
3)I can be contacted at John.Cragg@ec.gc.ca or 306-975-6911 after May 1st
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