wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing, and seismicity ... · 1867 mmi-vii near manhattan 1906...

Wastewater Disposal, Hydraulic Fracturing, and Seismicity in Southern Kansas

Justin Rubinstein | Earthquake Science Center

With Thanks To:

1867 MMI-VII near Manhattan

1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------

1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)

1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)

Earthquake History in Kansas

1973-2012

Earthquake History in Kansas

1973-02/23/20161867 MMI-VII near Manhattan

1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)

1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)--------------2014 Oct 2 M4.3 near Anthony DYFI – MMI-VI

2014 Nov 12 M4.8 near Milan DYFI – MMI-VI

109 M≥3 Earthquakes2013 - 02/23/2016

4 M≥4 Earthquakes

Earthquake History in Kansas

1973-12/09/20151867 MMI-VII near Manhattan

1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)

1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)--------------2014 Oct 2 M4.3 near Anthony DYFI – MMI-VI

2014 Nov 12 M4.8 near Milan DYFI – MMI-VI

104 M≥3 Earthquakes2013 - 12/09/2015

4 M≥4 Earthquakes

1867 MMI-VII near Manhattan

1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)

1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)--------------2014 Oct 2 M4.3 near Anthony DYFI – MMI-VI

2014 Nov 12 M4.8 near Milan DYFI – MMI-VI

104 M≥3 Earthquakes2013 - 12/09/2015

4 M≥4 Earthquakes

Earthquake History in Kansas

1973-12/09/2015

Primarily Normal Faulting

• Issued 3/19/2015

• 5 zones defined by seismicity w/

widths of 3 miles

• 10 days - 16K bbl/day

• 55 days - 12K bbl/day

• 100 days - 8K bbl/day

• Daily injection volume and pressure

• Plug Back wells into basement

There are even more wells…

165 Permitted

≥= 10K Bbl/day

232 Permitted

>= 5K Bbl/day

Has this reduced seismicity?

After RulesBefore Rules

Has this reduced seismicity?

Before Regulations

Has this reduced seismicity?

• 530 M≥2 in 8 months prior

• 477 M≥2 in 8 months since

• 48 EQs, GK decluster

– 11 clusters pre

– 37 clusters post

Has this reduced seismicity?

Before Rules

580 M≥2 in 10 months

530 in AOSC

50 outside

After Rules

514 M≥2 in 10 months

327 in AOSC

187 outside

Has this reduced seismicity?

Zone 1

• 5 high rate wells (twin)

• Active since Mar 2014

• M4.3 and M4.10

50

100

Nu

mbe

r o

f M

2+

ea

rth

qua

ke

s

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct0

20

40

Daily

In

jecte

d V

olu

me (

10

00 *

bbl)

Zone 1

• 5 high rate wells (twin)

• Active since Nov 2014

• Mmax 3.6

Zone 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nu

mbe

r o

f M

2+

ea

rth

qua

ke

s

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Daily

In

jecte

d V

olu

me (

10

00 *

bbl)

Zone 2

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Da

iy In

jecte

d V

olu

me

(1

00

0xB

Bl)

Zone 5

• 1 nearby high rate well

• Active since June 2014

• Mmax 4.8

Zone 5

Magnitude Distribution

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 510

0

101

102

Magnitude

Nu

mb

er

of

EQ

sMagnitude Frequency Diagram

Jul−Sep14 0.9

Oct−Dec14 1.0

Jan−Mar15 0.9

Apr−Jun15 1.0

Jul−Sep15 1.0

Oct−Dec15 0.9

• Rules in place for > 10 months

• Injection in large wells has decreased

• Has water been moved to other wells?

• Earthquake rates are reduced in AOSC

• EQ rates increased outside AOSC

• EQs are more diffuse

• USGS catalog available online*

*not completely the same as ComCat

Summary

M5.1 Fairview Earthquake

• Feb 12 M5.1 EQ

• 6 M4 EQs in the preceding 4 months

• 3rd largest EQ in state history

• USGS Deployed 8 seismometers

M5.1 Fairview Earthquake

• Feb 12 M5.1 EQ

• 6 M4 EQs in the preceding 4 months

• 3rd largest EQ in state history

• USGS Deployed 8 seismometers