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Washington State Employment Estimates and Forecasts for Transportation Investment Planning
Washington Transportation CommissionJanuary 18, 2012
Chris Mefford, President & CEOCommunity Attributes Int’lSeattle, Washington
Contents
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 2
Context: Statewide Employment Trends and Outlook
Data charts
Regional Economic Drivers, Industry Employment and Transportation Needs
Discussion, Data charts
County Growth and County Sectors Data, maps
Conclusions Conclusions
Statewide Employment,1990 to 2011
Source: Washington State Employment Security Dept.; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CAI, Nov. 2011Non‐Farm Employment
2.0%
2.8%
‐1.2%
2.3%
‐3.4%
1.5% 1.4%
‐3.5%
‐2.5%
‐1.5%
‐0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
19901996
19962001
20012003
20032008
20082010
20102012
19902012
CAGR
Annual Growth Rates
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 3
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Thousands (000s)
Statewide Employment, 1990 to 2019
Source: Washington State Employment Security Dept.Non‐Farm Employment
2.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2012 ‐ 2019
CAGR
Annual Growth Rates
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 4
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Thousands (000s)
Washington State Employment
Contents
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 5
Context: Statewide Employment Trends and Outlook
Data charts
Regional Economic Drivers, Industry Employment and Transportation Needs
Discussion, Data charts
County Growth and County Sectors Data, maps
Conclusions Conclusions
Regional Economy Circular Flow
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 6
External sectors
ExportsImports
Households
Businesses & Non-Profits
Consumer purchasesPrivate contributions
Income
Capital markets
Private investment
Personal savings Government
Taxes
Transfer payments
Gov’t Purchases
In‐Migration
Where transportation investmentscan make a difference
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 7
Imports, Exports and Intraregional Distribution
Workers, Talent, Families
Transport / Transmission / Delivery Speed
Quality of Life (Access & Mobility)
Access to Skilled Labor and Talent
Cost of Living (Access & Mobility)
Energy and Fuel Energy and Fuel
Employment data must be re-grouped to align with investment choices
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 8
Prelim Revised Revised Revised Jul-11 Aug-10 Jul-10
**NAICS Industry Title Aug-11 Jul-11 Aug-10 Jul-10 Aug-11 Aug-11 Aug-10Total Nonfarm 1 2,822,200 2,835,200 2,775,700 2,794,300 -13,000 46,500 -18,600Total Private 2,313,700 2,308,400 2,260,600 2,258,900 5,300 53,100 1,700Goods Producing 430,000 422,900 416,800 415,000 7,100 13,200 1,800 Mining and Logging 6,400 6,300 6,300 6,300 100 100 0 Construction 149,900 146,900 149,000 147,400 3,000 900 1,600 Manufacturing 273,700 269,700 261,500 261,300 4,000 12,200 200 Durable Goods 194,700 193,700 185,100 185,400 1,000 9,600 -300 Aerospace Product and Parts Mfg. 88,000 87,400 80,500 80,700 600 7,500 -200 Nondurable Goods 79,000 76,000 76,400 75,900 3,000 2,600 500 Food Manufacturing 37,400 34,300 35,500 34,900 3,100 1,900 600Service Providing 2,392,200 2,412,300 2,358,900 2,379,300 -20,100 33,300 -20,400 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 532,500 534,400 519,900 520,000 -1,900 12,600 -100 Wholesale Trade 124,300 126,300 121,400 121,700 -2,000 2,900 -300 Retail Trade 315,000 314,200 309,200 308,600 800 5,800 600 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 37,300 38,000 36,400 36,300 -700 900 100
Nonfarm Employment in
Not Seasonally Adjusted/*Updated with ***QCEW Data: March 2011
Change
Washington State
Washington Jobs, Grouped by Economic Impact
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 9
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
201,100144,900
63,400 79,000
217,500
707,300
422,700
166,100
569,500
314,100
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
Manufacturing Durable Goods & Resources Information
Technology
Farming Manuf. Non‐
Durable Goods
Wholesale, Transport, Ware‐housing
Retail, Hotels,
Entertain,Svcs
Prof. Services
Const., Waste & Utilities
Health & Education
Government (all levels, no
educ)
Jobs, 2011
Washington Jobs, Grouped by Economic Impact
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 10
201,100144,900
63,400 79,000
217,500
707,300
422,700
166,100
569,500
314,100
Intra‐Region Mobility for Labor & Freight
x x x x x x x x x x
Access for Labor x x x x x x x x xOut of StateFreight Mobility Infrastructure
x x x x
Business / Tourism Travel x x x
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
Manufacturing Durable Goods & Resources Information
Technology
Farming Manuf. Non‐
Durable Goods
Wholesale, Transport, Ware‐housing
Retail, Hotels,
Entertain,Svcs
Prof. Services
Const., Waste & Utilities
Health & Education
Government (all levels, no
educ)
Mobility Needs
Jobs, 2011
Industries grouped by common needs, ranked for economic impact
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 11
Industries
Washington Jobs
(2.9 Million)
High Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
Transportation NeedsIntra‐region mobility, freight and
labor
Access for
Labor
Out‐of‐State Freight Infra‐
structure
Business / Tourism Travel
Production of Durable Goods & Resources 201,100 High High x x xInformation Technology 144,900 High High x x xFarming 63,400 High High x xProduction of Non‐Durable Goods 79,000 Med‐
High High x x xWholesale, Transport, Warehousing 217,500 High x x xConsumer Services, Hospitality, Retail 707,300 Med x x xProfessional Services 422,700 Med x x xConstruction, Waste & Utilities 166,100 x xHealth & Education 569,500 x xGovernment (all levels, no educ) 314,100 x x
Department of Commerce Key Industries for Washington State
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 12
• Aerospace • Information and communication technology
• Clean energy • Manufacturing
• Forest products • Marine technology
• Global health and life sciences
• Value‐added agriculture and food processing
• Tourism
Washington State Export Industries
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 13
Sector Exports and Examples
Top Ranking Mobility Needs
Freight Commuter Int’l Travel
Aerospace Planes, parts, expertise x x x
I.T. Virtual products, on‐line commerce x x
Durable goods manufacturing
Smaller products, supplies x x
Food and perishables
Apples, Fruit, Hops, Wine, much more x x
Professional services
Design expertise, CleanTech, innovation x x
Research & Education
Expertise, collaboration x x
Contents
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 14
Context: Statewide Employment Trends and Outlook
Data charts
Regional Economic Drivers, Industry Employment and Transportation Needs
Discussion, Data charts
County Growth and County Sectors Data, maps
Conclusions Conclusions
Geographic economic impact considerations
1.Regional economies do not fit neatly into governmental jurisdictions
2.Specific industries have relatively and significantly different impacts among counties and cities
3.Similar transportation investments may be more critical to some industries, more critical to some regions
4.Some investments may enable growth, others may help prevent economic deterioration … and shades of gray in between
5.Some investments may be significant by themselves, others may be part of system and their impacts may be less distinct
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 15
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 16
Jobs by County, All Jobs, 2010
• Map, change in total jobs by county (actual change)
• Regional boundaries on map
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 17
Jobs Growth Change by County, All Jobs, 2002 - 2010
Washington Transportation Commission 17January 11, 2012
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 18
Jobs Growth Rates by County, All Jobs, 2002 - 2010
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 19
Forecasted Job Growth, All Jobs, 2011 - 2019
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 20
Forecasted Job Growth Rates, All Jobs, 2011 - 2019
Washington Transportation Commission 20January 11, 2012
Jobs by Region in Washington, August 2011
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 21
144,600 253,100
1,154,900
511,400
199,700 237,600
91,400
246,400 16,40033,800
130,700
53,400
28,800 28,500
8,800
26,700
‐
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Northwest SnohomishCounty
Seattle‐KingCounty
Olympic Southwest SouthCentral
NorthCentral
Eastern
Jobs
2019 Forecasts2011 Estimates
2011 Statewide Total: 2,822,000plus approx. avg. 40,000 farm jobs2019 Forecast: 3,166,000 (w/ farm jobs)
5% 9% 41% 18% 7% 3% 3% 9%
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
161,000
266,900
1,285,600
564,800
228,500 266,100
103,200
273,100
Statewide Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 22
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
6,310
269,370
113,800
39,200
523,350
272,900
138,120
352,880
150,640
325,100
139,730
507,530
1,260
24,460
20,630
44,750
30,200
3,470
91,490
13,810
55,200
5,120
36,730
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
144,600 jobs in 2011161,000 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 23
North-Northwestern Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 24
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
200
14,290
2,790 1,000
28,020
17,950
3,900
14,150
10,330
2,150
20,050
29,740
30
2,100
300
2,130
1,680
270
3,730
1,060
400
1,060
3,610
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
144,600 jobs in 2011161,000 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
Snohomish Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 25
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
200
58,800
5,800 1,000
42,800
22,800
10,600
21,40015,700
29,100
9,600
35,300
150
6,680
550
4,560
2,730
660
6,3502,060
5,770
480
3,820
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
253,100 jobs in 2011266,900 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
King County, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 26
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
500
100,10081,700
400
215,700
113,600
64,300
190,100
52,600
137,700
42,500
155,700
80
2,79018,790
0
14,500
13,590
220
49,280
1,900
19,600
990
8,980
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000Jobs 2011 – 19 Forecasts
2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
1,154,900 jobs in 20111,285,600 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 27
Olympic Region, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 28
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
1,720
28,520
9,440 1,000
95,470
43,600
27,30040,500
30,170
50,900
28,040
126,990
280
3,320
450
9,590
4,410
570
9,8803,550
9,300
1,130
7,900
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
511,400 jobs in 2011564,800 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 29
Southwestern Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 30
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
1,400
22,150
3,850 2,900
37,800
19,080
8,150
20,690
13,060
25,570
10,190
34,860
110
3,610
730
4,480
2,190
440
6,120
1,610
5,790
560
3,200
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000Jobs 2011 – 19 Forecasts
2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
199,700 jobs in 2011228,500 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 31Washington Transportation CommissionJanuary 11, 2012
South Central Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 32
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
1,270
19,990
4,550
17,400
40,930
21,270
6,630
31,350
11,130
30,600
8,230
44,200
300
2,330
‐250
3,890
2,490
420
7,340
2,000
6,300
170
3,470
‐10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
237,600 jobs in 2011266,000 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 33
North Central Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 34
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
620
5,680
1,460
12,000
18,170
8,460
2,450
4,800 5,6007,400
3,900
20,810
160
900
0
1,910
940
140
1,010 4001,330
140
1,840
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
91,400 jobs in 2011100,100 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 35
Eastern Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 36
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
Finance Other
Information
Farming
Construction
Education & Health Services
Government
Professional and Business Services
400
19,840
4,210 3,500
44,460
19,700
13,290
23,990
12,050
40,380
13,780
50,790
150
2,730
60
3,690
1,520
720
6,340
1,230
6,480
450
3,340
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000Jobs
2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates
Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.
246,400 jobs in 2011273,100 jobs in 2019
High to Medium Export Activity
High Multiplier Effect
Contents
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 37
Context: Statewide Employment Trends and Outlook
Data charts
Regional Economic Drivers, Industry Employment and Transportation Needs
Discussion, Data charts
County Growth and County Sectors Data, maps
Conclusions Conclusions
Conclusions
• Employment data must be analyzed and re-packaged to align information with decisions
• Transportation investments should – reduce operating costs for employers – reduce access cost for employees
• High impact industries have high multiplier impacts and high export value
• Jobs will increase again, and investments should support their growth, regionally and by industry
• Each region has different needs for their economy and their transportation
• Recommendation: Address consistency of data products statewide for better decision-making
January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 38
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