visualising climate change it's all in the mind

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Chris Rapley

Visualising Climate Change !

It’s All in the Mind

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Not The Higgs

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Anxiety, Fear, Loss, Grief, Guilt, Helplessness

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IPCC AR5 Summary for Policy Makers

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There’s a Limit

How can we stop? Who gets what?

A Personal Journey

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Jodrell Bank 1970

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Cassini Titan Radar 1994

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Science Museum 2007

? Conclude

or Believe

?

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atmosphere 2010

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Primary Instrument

Mk1 Brain

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Ken Robinson - TED talk on creativity

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Automatic

Deliberative

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System 1 (Automatic) Intuitive - autonomous and effortless. Outside conscious awareness and does not require controlled attention. Generates fast, automatic responses. Wellspring for spontaneous creative thoughts and ideasSystem 2 (Deliberative) Reflective reasoning - conscious, deliberative, effortful. Requires controlled attention. Flexible and can be applied to different problem domains. Underlies capacity for abstract thinking, mental simulation and introspection

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System 1

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Keeping You Alive Avoiding Disadvantage

Seeking Advantage

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“Meaning in Context”

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Perception

• Optic nerve axons equivalent to 1 Megapixel camera!

• Rapidly scan ‘searchlight’ to build up visual scene ~80% of which is constructed in brain

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Beau Lotto

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Beau Lotto

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Visual Processors!- Automatic !- Always on!

- In the hidden part!- Err on the side of false positives!

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T e mind a tom tic lly extra ts t e ost

li ely mean g fr m a sent ce wi h miss n l tt rs

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A System for Jumping to Conclusions

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Heider and Simmel 1946

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What Did We See?!- Agency!

- Intentions & Motivations!- Emotions!

- Character Traits

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Social Evaluation and Narrative Processors!

- Automatic!- Always on!

- In the hidden part!- Snap judgements!

- Stereotypes!

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Hidden Contributions to A Thought

mental sensations (perceptions and cognitive

feelings)

thoughts

actions

individual genetic factors

evolutionary history / species-level biological factors

memories and experiences

emotions and mood

pressures from the social environment

Adapted from Burton,”A Skeptic’s Guide to the Mind” 2013

physical sensations

influences from cultural heritage

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Massive Committee

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Automatic Associations

Feelings steer What we Think

Determine What we Feel

drive need to formulate meaning even if there is none

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Capable of Believing Almost Anything

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Divergent Beliefs

Cycle of Action and Self-Justification

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Pre-existing hidden associations tip us down one side of the triangle

Step by step we consolidate our position as we seek to eliminate

Dissonance - To feel right not wrong

in doing so we become increasingly practiced and resolute

Thought becomes Belief / Conviction

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To account for those who differ we assume they are ...

- Ill-informed / Misled - Incapable / Crazy

- Self-interested / Evil

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Another Possibility

As Convinced and Sincere as we are

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Powerful Influences

• Care - Harm!

• Liberty - Oppression!

• Fairness - Cheating!

• Loyalty - Betrayal!

• Authority - Subversion!

• Sanctity - Degradation

(Joanathan Haidt - Moral Foundations Theory)

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Threat

Life Support

Reducing Harm

Collective Action

Nature

Hoax

Personal Freedom

Regulation

State Interference

Individuality

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We Care Very Much What Others Think of Us

We Make Sense Of The World Through the Lenses Of Those With Whom We Identify And

Whose Esteem We Seek

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How do minds change?

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More Facts Don’t Work

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• Assuming others have pieces of the answer!

• Collaborative!• About finding common ground!• Listening to understand!• Exploring assumptions!• Discovering new possibilities!• Seeking constructive progress

Debate Dialogue

Mode of Engagement

• Assuming there is one right answer!• Combative!• About winning!• Listening for flaws!• Defending assumptions!• Pursuing your outcome!• Asymmetries of engagement!• Entertainment× ✓

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Telling Stories

Universal Structure

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Message In the Waves

BBC

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Cars

CPSL

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3 minutes

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Welcome to the Anthropocene

IGBP

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We Can Shape Our Future !

You and I are Part of This Story