visioning 2030 for region 6 george a. erickcek w.e. upjohn institute for employment research july...

Visioning 2030 for Region 6

George A. ErickcekW.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

July 24, 2014

Agenda

• Progress report on the preparation of the Regional Prosperity Plan– Listening Tour

• Agricultural and commuting profile• Economic and demographic baseline• Opportunity to play “what if” scenarios for the

region• Estimate the economic linkages between the two

sub-regions of the Thumb and I-69 corridor

2

Where are the next generation of farmers coming from?

3

Average age of farm operators 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012Genesee 53.0 54.1 54.9 55.9 58.2Huron 49.1 51.1 51.9 54.7 56.2Lapeer 52.2 53.7 53.8 56.4 57.4St. Clair 52.3 53.6 54.3 56.5 58.3Sanilac 51.6 52.8 54.3 55.4 56.3Shiawassee 52.9 53.4 54.4 56.3 57.5Tuscola 50.4 51.8 53.3 56.1 57.2

To support the region’s farming community, nonfarm opportunities are a must

4

2012 Principal Occupation of the Farm Manager

Farming Other % Non-farmGenesee 418 417 50%Lapeer 669 536 44%Huron 581 552 49%St. Clair 587 462 44%Sanilac 816 651 44%Shiawassee 529 504 49%Tuscola 643 679 51%

Agricultural production

5

Agricultural Production in Dollars (OOOs)

Product Genesee Huron Lapeer St. Clair Sanilac Shiawassee Tuscola

Grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas

52,714 229,754 66,733 85,376 220,428 107,142 183,435

Milk from cows 5,305 162,586 9,003 4,646 96,723 24,731 23,503

Other crops and hay 5,762 103,030 14,595 5,569 52,354 5,524 33,794

Misc. 27,559 159,194 23,024 12,346 51,461 7,773 33,714

Commuting patterns in Region 6

7

County Total

Work in the Thumb Work in the I-69 Corridor Work outside Region 6

Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentGenesee 138,210 2,506 1.8 80,816 58.5 54,888 39.7Huron 14,464 9,154 63.3 281 1.9 5,029 34.8Lapeer 31,035 1,475 4.8 11,917 38.4 17,643 56.8St. Clair 67,630 2,146 3.2 27,754 41.0 37,730 55.8Sanilac 13,018 6,797 52.2 1,631 12.5 4,590 35.3Tuscola 18,416 7,064 38.4 1,112 6.0 10,240 55.6Shiawassee 27,634 99 0.4 10,440 37.8 17,095 61.9

Employed Workforce by County of Residency

REMI Forecasting Model

• Regional Economic Modeling Inc.• A Forecasting and Simulation Model– A well-regarded model– Provides a baseline forecast for the region– Provides the ability to generate alternative

forecasts– Extremely flexible with thousands of policy and

business variables that can be changed

15

Forecast for Region 6

• Thumb Area–Huron– Sanilac– Tuscola

• I-69 International Corridor– Shiawassee–Genesee– Lapeer– St. Clair

16

The region’s changing population profile

17

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Population Profile

2010

Popu

latio

n in

thou

sand

s

Total: 878,434

The region’s changing population profile

18

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Population Profile

2010 2020

Popu

latio

n in

thou

sand

s

2020: 889,7002010: 878,4340.1% annual increase

The region’s changing population profile

19

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Population Profile

2010 2020 2030

Popu

latio

n in

thou

sand

s

2030: 937,6002020: 889,7002010: 878,434A 0.5% annual increase from 2020 to 2030

Population trends

20

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

Population by Age Group

Ages 0- 19 Ages 20-34 Ages 35-49 Ages 50-65 Ages 64-70 Ages 75+

Popu

latio

n in

thou

sand

s

Dependency populations: Fewer kids and more seniors

21

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

Population by Age Group

Ages 0- 19 Ages 64-70 Ages 75+

Popu

latio

n in

thou

sand

s

Population trends: Working-age adults

22

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

50

100

150

200

250

Population by Age Group

Ages 20-34 Ages 35-49 Ages 50-65

Popu

latio

n in

thou

sand

s

Will younger workers have the skills and experience necessary to replace retiring workers?

Employment forecast

23

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Total Employment

Total Employment Thumb Area I-69 Corridor

Empl

oym

ent i

n th

ousa

nds

Detailed employment forecast

24

Employment Forecast 2013 to 2030

2013 2030 Avg. ann. chg.Utilities 2,018 1,390 -2.2%Construction 15,529 25,472 3.0%Manufacturing 36,198 33,449 -0.5%Wholesale trade 12,435 13,664 0.6%Retail trade 46,851 51,348 0.5%Transportation and warehousing 9,053 9,402 0.2%Information 7,083 6,234 -0.7%Finance and insurance 15,731 15,494 -0.1%Real estate and rental and leasing 10,522 12,269 0.9%Professional, scientific, and technical services 13,353 17,439 1.6%Administrative and waste management services 23,738 29,913 1.4%Educational services 7,110 8,563 1.1%Health care and social assistance 49,081 64,151 1.6%Arts, entertainment, and recreation 6,873 7,711 0.7%Accommodation and food services 26,121 30,251 0.9%Other services, except public administration 21,229 22,645 0.4%Farm 9,602 6,741 -2.1%Government 45,102 44,936 0.0%Total 361,619 405,289 0.7%

The region’s economic base is becoming more diverse

25

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20300%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Composition of the Region's Economic Base

Manufacturing Health care and social assistance Retail tradeLeisure & hospitality Farm Other sectors

Economic linkages between the Thumb and I-69 Corridor

Industry Thumb Region I-69 Corridor RegionFarming 1000 30

Fabricated metals production

1000 80

Fabricated metalsproduction

14 1000

Food production 1000 125

Food production 20 1000

26

Note: Impact of 1,000 new jobs on the neighboring sub-region.

Source: Regional Economic Modeling, Inc.

Visioning 2030 for Region 6

George A. ErickcekW.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

July 24, 2014