view to a crime: a gis approach to homicides over time in chicago

View to a Crime: A GIS Approach to Homicides Over Time in Chicago

19 April 2012Champaign, Illinois

ILGISA Spring Conference

Noah SagerGraduate StudentDepartment of GeographyChicago State University

Criminal Background

Crime Time Summer – (Block 1984, Field 1992, Hipp et. al.

2004) Winter - (Koppen & Jansen 1999) Lunar - (Biermann et. al. 2009) Menstruation - (Dalton 1961)

Crime Place Gentrification - (Papachristos et. al. 2011) Hotspots - (Block & Block 1995, Ratcliffe 2004)

Crime Studies Don’t Pay Temporal Specificity/Generalizations Crime Specificity

Precision: the Missing Link Different Temporal Specificity Crime Generalizations

Criminal Background

All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak

Homicide: Death in the Streets

Homicide: Death in the Streets

All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak

All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily Time Animation (ArcGIS) One-way ANOVA (SPSS)

Homicide: Death in the Streets

All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak

All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily One-way ANOVA (SPSS) Time Animation (ArcGIS)

January (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes311

Average31.1

Rank11th

January = 31.1

February (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes256

Average25.6

Rank12th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes370

Average37.0

Rank10th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0

April (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes431

Average43.1

Rank7th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1

May (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes441

Average44.1

Rank6th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1

June (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes567

Average56.7

Rank2nd

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7

July (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes597

Average59.7

Rank1st

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes521

Average52.1

Rank3rd

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1

September (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes489

Average48.9

Rank4th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9

October (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes458

Average45.8

Rank5th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9October = 45.8

November (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes397

Average39.7

Rank8th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9October = 45.8

November = 39.7

December (2001 – 2010)

Total Crimes380

Average38.0

Rank9th

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9October = 45.8

November = 39.7

December = 38.0

Total (2001 – 2010)

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9October = 45.8

November = 39.7

December = 38.0

Total (2001 – 2010)

January = 31.1February = 25.6

March = 37.0April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9October = 45.8

November = 39.7

December = 38.0

30 DaysSeptemberAprilNovemberJune

28.2 DaysFebruary

Total (2001 – 2010)

January = 1.00February = 0.91March = 1.19April = 1.44May = 1.42June = 1.89July = 1.93August = 1.68September = 1.63October = 1.48November = 1.32December = 1.23

Monthly AverageJanuary = 31.1

February = 25.6March = 37.0

April = 43.1May = 44.1June = 56.7July = 59.7

August = 52.1September =

48.9October = 45.8

November = 39.7

December = 38.0

Daily Average

Homicide: Death in the Streets

All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak

All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily One-way ANOVA (SPSS) Time Animation (ArcGIS)

Crime Pays: Results

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

chApr

ilMay

June Ju

ly

Augus

t

Sept

embe

r

Octob

er

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Homicides (Average 2001-2010)

Homicides (Average 2001-2010)

Months

Hom

icid

es

Crime Pays: Significant Results January < June, July, August, September February < April, May, June, July, August, September,

October March < July April > February (and) < July May > February June > January, February July > January, February, March, April,

November, December August > January, February September > January, February October > February November < July December < July

Significant: p < 0.05

Homicide: Death in the Streets

All Crimes – One Year Data too large Conclusions too weak

All Homicides – Ten Years Total/Monthly/Daily One-way ANOVA (SPSS) Time Animation (ArcGIS)

Time Animation via ArcGIS

Conclusions

Criminal Intent High and Low months/seasons Significant differences

Future Studies Expansion of crime types, crime times Increased analysis Framework for GIS Applications

Future Study

More Crime, More Better Homicide, Arson, Gambling

▪ Assault, Burglary, Robbery

More Time, More Better Crime by Days

▪ Individual days, weekday days v. weekend days

Crime by Time▪ Four 6 hour periods, individual hours

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 349

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 344

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 324

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 257

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 229

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 178

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 160

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 86

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 114

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 134

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 121

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117z

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

7pm-8pm: 181

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

7pm-8pm: 181

8pm-9pm: 237

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

7pm-8pm: 181

8pm-9pm: 237

9pm-10pm: 283

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

7pm-8pm: 181

8pm-9pm: 237

9pm-10pm: 283

10pm-11pm: 290

Total (2002 – 2011)

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

7pm-8pm: 181

8pm-9pm: 237

9pm-10pm: 283

10pm-11pm: 290

11pm-12am: 323

Total (2002 – 2011): 4,939

Hourly Total

12am-1am: 3491am-2am: 3442am-3am: 3243am-4am: 2574am-5am: 2295am-6am: 1786am-7am: 1607am-8am: 868am-9am: 1149am-10am: 13410am-11am: 12111am-12pm: 117

Hourly Total

12pm-1pm: 138

1pm-2pm: 134

2pm-3pm: 163

3pm-4pm: 165

4pm-5pm: 195

5pm-6pm: 175

6pm-7pm: 242

7pm-8pm: 181

8pm-9pm: 237

9pm-10pm: 283

10pm-11pm: 290

11pm-12am: 323

View to a Crime: A GIS Approach to Homicides Over Time in Chicago

Thank You!

Questions?

Noah SagerGraduate StudentDepartment of GeographyChicago State Universitynsager@csu.eduwww.noahsager.net

19 April 2012Champaign, Illinois

ILGISA Spring Conference