using resstock to evaluate emerging technologies across ......using resstockto evaluate emerging...

Using ResStock to evaluate emerging technologies across the U.S. housing stock

Eric Wilson, National Renewable Energy LaboratoryDecember 12, 2017

2017 BTO FOA Kick-off Meeting

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Approach – Data Sources

Highly granular open-source modeling for national, regional, and local housing stocks

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Approach – Data SourcesEIA Res. Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)NAHB Homebuilder SurveysIECC Historical Energy CodesOther national, regional, and local audit databases

Census Data

Climate Locations

Costs

BuildingCharacteristics

Census American Community Survey (ACS)

EIA Electricity and fuel costsNREL OpenEI.org Utility Rate DatabaseNREL/Navigant Measure Cost Database

NREL TMY3 weather data

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EIA Res. Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)NAHB Homebuilder SurveysIECC Historical Energy CodesOther national, regional, and local audit databases

Census Data

Climate Locations

Costs

BuildingCharacteristics

Census American Community Survey (ACS)

EIA Electricity and fuel costsNREL OpenEI.org Utility Rate DatabaseNREL/Navigant Measure Cost Database

NREL TMY3 weather data

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Detailed sub-hourly energy simulations

OpenStudio

EnergyPlus

U.S. DOE Tools

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Ability to simulate emerging technologies

OpenStudio

EnergyPlus

U.S. DOE ToolsEmergingtechnology

Systemperformancecharacterization

Detailedopen-sourcecomponentmodels

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OpenStudio

EnergyPlus

U.S. DOE Tools Many Partners: Shared Development Resources

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350,000

20 million

2.4

simulations for baseline U.S single-family housing stock

simulations for 50+ upgrades

years of computing time

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A high-granularity approach to cost-effectivenessTypical Approach High-Granularity Approach

Gas Heat

Electric Heat

5 10+3

Payback, in years, for drill-and-fill wall insulationin Washington and Oregon single-family homes

= 50,000 homes

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A high-granularity approach to cost-effectivenessTypical Approach High-Granularity Approach

Gas Heat

Electric Heat

5 10+3

Payback, in years, for drill-and-fill wall insulationin Washington and Oregon single-family homes

= 50,000 homes

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Application: Product Design & Marketing

• Early-stage: What is the value proposition in different regions?

• Mid-stage: How can performance be optimized?

• Late-state:Target marketing for customer segments with most to save Potential revenue from high-efficiency

variable-speed heat pump equipment salesand installation in households where theupgrade has a less than 5 year paybackperiod.

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Evaluate Price Point – Drill-and-Fill Wall Insulation

7 million homes with less than 5 year payback

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Evaluate Price Point – Drill-and-Fill Wall Insulation

7 million homes with less than 5 year payback

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Evaluate Price Point – Drill-and-Fill Wall Insulation

7 million homes with less than 5 year payback

23 million homes with less than 5 year payback

Acknowledgements

EERE Building Technologies OfficeEERE Office of Strategic ProgramsOffice of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Regions 8 & 10

Contact Eric.Wilson@nrel.govto learn how ResStock & ComStock can benefit your organization.