us wma overshoot analysis
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First piece of work, rest to follow soon
09
Overshoot Study Index overshoot study beyond its weekly moving
averages.
By :Harman Bajwa (bajwaharman@yahoo.com)
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
2
Index
Title Page no:
Introduction 2
Std Deviation Charts 3
Std Dev tables 4
Highest/Lowest ever shootout charts 7
No: of weeks index was above/below std dev 9
S&P 11
Dow Jones Industrial Average 14
Nasdaq Composite 17
Dow Jones Transport Index 20
Dow Jones Utility Index 23
Dow Jones – AIG Commodity Index 26
Nasdaq Financial 29
Nasdaq Bank 32
Nasdaq telecommunications Index 35
Nasdaq Computers Index 38
Conclusion 41
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
3
Stock Overshoot beyond Weekly Moving Averages study
The purpose of this report is to analyse the historical movement of US’s major indexes
beyond their 10 Week Moving Average, 20 Week Moving Average and 40 week moving
average. Benefit of this study would be:-
One can set realistic expectation out of each sector in its each bullish or bearish
move.
If the specific sector has over run and is way beyond its historic overshoot, one can
think of going under weight on particular sector. (Definition:- Overshoot is the
%age amount the stock has moved beyond its specific moving average)
Moving Averages are lagging indicators and if followed we miss near tops to exit
and near bottoms to enter. However, if we know the average standard deviation
expected from index, we can be in better position to take a well informed and
objective investment decision.
The overshoot %ages, can we kept as an stop loss or profit booking points. It will
reduce the variance and increase the returns/trade due to pre-determined low
deviation entry and exit.
One would be saved from wild swings in markets that come once in while or
decades, but once they come they wipe out more than 50% of the value.
For the purpose of study, following indexes were taken(Weekly data from -as mentioned -to
today):-
DJIA (Jan, 1928)
S&P 500 ( Jan, 1950)
Nasdaq Composite ( Feb ,1971)
Nasdaq Financials ( Jan, 2000)
Nasdaq Banking (Oct, 1990)
DJ Utility (Jan, 1929)
DJ Transport (Oct, 1928)
DJ-AIG Commodity (Jan, 1991)
Nasdaq telecommunication( May, 1996)
Nasdaq Computers( July 1995).
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
4
Following Charts show the Standard Deviation of the overshoot beyond indexes prepective
moving averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
S&P
DJI
A
Nas
daq
DJ
Tran
s
DJ
Uti
lity
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
Nas
daq
Ban
k
Nas
daq
Fin
Nas
daq
Tel
e
Nas
daq
Co
mp
u
Std Dev of Overshoot of Index beyond 10 WMA
Index beyong 10 WMA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
S&P
DJI
A
Nas
daq
DJ
Tran
s
DJ
Uti
lity
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
Nas
daq
Ban
k
Nas
daq
Fin
Nas
daq
Tel
e
Nas
daq
Co
mp
u
Std Dev of Index Overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Index beyond 20 WMA
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
5
Standard Deviation for all the Indexes In %age for overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Index
Index beyond 10
WMA
S&P 3.50
DJIA 4.39
Nasdaq 5.39
DJ Trans 6.19
DJ Utility 4.84
DJ-AIG Comm 3.61
Nasdaq Bank 4.33
Nasdaq Fin 4.75
Nasdaq Tele 8.40
Nasdaq Compu 7.73
0
5
10
15
20
25
S&P
DJI
A
Nas
daq
DJ
Tran
s
DJ
Uti
lity
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
Nas
daq
Ban
k
Nas
daq
Fin
Nas
daq
Tel
e
Nas
daq
Co
mp
u
Std dev of Index Overshoot beyond 40WMA
Index beyond 40 WMA
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
6
Standard Deviation for all the Indexes In %age for overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Index
Index beyond 20
WMA
S&P 5.14
DJIA 6.48
Nasdaq 8.24
DJ Trans 9.23
DJ Utility 7.03
DJ-AIG
Comm 5.67
Nasdaq
Bank 6.48
Nasdaq Fin 6.39
Nasdaq Tele 13.21
Nasdaq
Compu 11.67
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
7
Standard Deviation for all the Indexes In %age for overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Index
Index beyond 40
WMA
S&P 7.71
DJIA 9.45
Nasdaq 12.12
DJ Trans 13.10
DJ Utility 9.93
DJ-AIG
Comm 8.92
Nasdaq
Bank 10.01
Nasdaq Fin 8.94
Nasdaq Tele 20.76
Nasdaq
Compu 17.57
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
8
Following charts show highest and lowest ever overshoot beyond the respective moving
averages
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
Highest/Lowest Overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Highest/Lowest Overshoot
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
Highest/Lowest Overshoot beyond 20 WMA (%age)
Highest/Lowest Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
9
Now let us see that for how many weeks or %age of total weeks, indexes remain beyond the
standard deviation level of overshoots.
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
Highest/Lowest Overshoot beyond 40 WMA (%age)
Highest/Lowest Overshoot
02468
1012141618
S&P
+ti
ve
S&P
-ti
ve
DJI
A +
tive
DJI
A -
tive
Nas
q C
om
po
+ti
ve
Nas
q C
om
po
_ti
ve
DJ
Tran
s +i
ve
DJ
Tran
s -t
ive
DJ
Uti
li +t
ive
DJ
Uti
li -t
ive
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
+ti
ve
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
-ti
ve
Nas
q B
ank
+tiv
e
Nas
q B
ank
-tiv
e
Nas
q F
in +
ive
Nas
q F
in -
tive
Nas
q T
el +
tive
Nas
q T
el -
tive
Nas
q C
om
p +
tive
Nas
q C
om
p -
tive
%age number of weeks Index was more/less than Std Dev of overshoot of 10 WMA
%age weeks
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
S&P
+ti
ve
S&P
-ti
ve
DJI
A +
tive
DJI
A -
tive
Nas
q C
om
po
+ti
ve
Nas
q C
om
po
_ti
ve
DJ
Tran
s +i
ve
DJ
Tran
s -t
ive
DJ
Uti
li +t
ive
DJ
Uti
li -t
ive
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
+ti
ve
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
-ti
ve
Nas
q B
ank
+tiv
e
Nas
q B
ank
-tiv
e
Nas
q F
in +
ive
Nas
q F
in -
tive
Nas
q T
el +
tive
Nas
q T
el -
tive
Nas
q C
om
p +
tive
Nas
q C
om
p -
tive
%age number of weeks Index was more/less than Std Dev of overshoot of 20 WMA
%age weeks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
S&P
+ti
veS&
P -
tive
DJI
A +
tive
DJI
A -
tive
Nas
q C
om
po
+ti
veN
asq
Co
mp
o _
tive
DJ
Tran
s +i
veD
J Tr
ans
-tiv
e
DJ
Uti
li +t
ive
DJ
Uti
li -t
ive
DJ-
AIG
Co
mm
+ti
veD
J-A
IG C
om
m -
tive
Nas
q B
ank
+tiv
eN
asq
Ban
k -t
ive
Nas
q F
in +
ive
Nas
q F
in -
tive
Nas
q T
el +
tive
Nas
q T
el -
tive
Nas
q C
om
p +
tive
Nas
q C
om
p -
tive
%age number of weeks index was more/less than std dev of overshoot of 40 WMA
%age weeks
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
11
S&P : June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 0.99% (10 WMA), 7.6% (20 WMA), 2.6 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -tive std
dev
10 WMA 3.500 -6.120 5.107 12.4 -25.87 16.600 10.250
20 WMA 5.150 -9.479 7.540 19.36 -29 20.950 8.790
40 WMA 7.710 -12.939 11.143 22.07 -35.38 23.800 8.350
Since 1950
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
06
/03
/19
50
06
/03
/19
53
06
/03
/19
56
06
/03
/19
59
06
/03
/19
62
06
/03
/19
65
06
/03
/19
68
06
/03
/19
71
06
/03
/19
74
06
/03
/19
77
06
/03
/19
80
06
/03
/19
83
06
/03
/19
86
06
/03
/19
89
06
/03
/19
92
06
/03
/19
95
06
/03
/19
98
06
/03
/20
01
06
/03
/20
04
06
/03
/20
07
S&P Overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
S&P overshoot beyond 10 WMA, last 5 years
10 WMA
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
12
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
301
5/0
5/1
95
0
15
/05
/19
53
15
/05
/19
56
15
/05
/19
59
15
/05
/19
62
15
/05
/19
65
15
/05
/19
68
15
/05
/19
71
15
/05
/19
74
15
/05
/19
77
15
/05
/19
80
15
/05
/19
83
15
/05
/19
86
15
/05
/19
89
15
/05
/19
92
15
/05
/19
95
15
/05
/19
98
15
/05
/20
01
15
/05
/20
04
15
/05
/20
07
S&P overshoot beyond 20WMA
Overshoot
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
S&P overshoot beyond 20 WMA, last 5 years
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
13
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
02
/10
/19
50
02
/10
/19
53
02
/10
/19
56
02
/10
/19
59
02
/10
/19
62
02
/10
/19
65
02
/10
/19
68
02
/10
/19
71
02
/10
/19
74
02
/10
/19
77
02
/10
/19
80
02
/10
/19
83
02
/10
/19
86
02
/10
/19
89
02
/10
/19
92
02
/10
/19
95
02
/10
/19
98
02
/10
/20
01
02
/10
/20
04
02
/10
/20
07
S&P overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
S&P overshoot beyond 40 WMA, last 5 years
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
14
DJIA : June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot : 1.1% (10 WMA), 6.5% (20 WMA), 0.6% (40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std
dev
10 WMA 4.390 -8.467 6.753 36.390 -27.720 11.230 9.250
20 WMA 6.490 -12.537 9.718 40.320 -33.000 13.210 9.400
40 WMA 9.460 -18.083 13.821 53.670 -45.120 17.600 9.230
-40.000
-30.000
-20.000
-10.000
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
03
/12
/19
28
03
/12
/19
32
03
/12
/19
36
03
/12
/19
40
03
/12
/19
44
03
/12
/19
48
03
/12
/19
52
03
/12
/19
56
03
/12
/19
60
03
/12
/19
64
03
/12
/19
68
03
/12
/19
72
03
/12
/19
76
03
/12
/19
80
03
/12
/19
84
03
/12
/19
88
03
/12
/19
92
03
/12
/19
96
03
/12
/20
00
03
/12
/20
04
03
/12
/20
08
DJIA overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30.000
-25.000
-20.000
-15.000
-10.000
-5.000
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJIA overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
15
-40.000
-30.000
-20.000
-10.000
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.0001
1/0
2/1
92
9
11
/02
/19
33
11
/02
/19
37
11
/02
/19
41
11
/02
/19
45
11
/02
/19
49
11
/02
/19
53
11
/02
/19
57
11
/02
/19
61
11
/02
/19
65
11
/02
/19
69
11
/02
/19
73
11
/02
/19
77
11
/02
/19
81
11
/02
/19
85
11
/02
/19
89
11
/02
/19
93
11
/02
/19
97
11
/02
/20
01
11
/02
/20
05
11
/02
/20
09
DJIA overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-30.000
-25.000
-20.000
-15.000
-10.000
-5.000
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJIA overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
16
-60.000
-40.000
-20.000
0.000
20.000
40.000
60.0000
1/0
7/1
92
9
01
/07
/19
33
01
/07
/19
37
01
/07
/19
41
01
/07
/19
45
01
/07
/19
49
01
/07
/19
53
01
/07
/19
57
01
/07
/19
61
01
/07
/19
65
01
/07
/19
69
01
/07
/19
73
01
/07
/19
77
01
/07
/19
81
01
/07
/19
85
01
/07
/19
89
01
/07
/19
93
01
/07
/19
97
01
/07
/20
01
01
/07
/20
05
DJIA overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-35.000
-30.000
-25.000
-20.000
-15.000
-10.000
-5.000
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJIA overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
17
Nasdaq : June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 2.8% (10 WMA), 10.8% (20 WMA), 9.9 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std
dev
10 WMA 5.400 -10.113 8.040 17.48 -26.94 16.130 10.330
20 WMA 8.240 -14.658 12.532 29.26 -32.3 18.470 10.240
40 WMA 12.130 -20.865 19.153 51.71 -43.64 18.910 10.190
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
05
/04
/19
71
05
/04
/19
73
05
/04
/19
75
05
/04
/19
77
05
/04
/19
79
05
/04
/19
81
05
/04
/19
83
05
/04
/19
85
05
/04
/19
87
05
/04
/19
89
05
/04
/19
91
05
/04
/19
93
05
/04
/19
95
05
/04
/19
97
05
/04
/19
99
05
/04
/20
01
05
/04
/20
03
05
/04
/20
05
05
/04
/20
07
05
/04
/20
09
Nasq Comp overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Comp overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
18
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
401
4/0
6/1
97
1
14
/06
/19
73
14
/06
/19
75
14
/06
/19
77
14
/06
/19
79
14
/06
/19
81
14
/06
/19
83
14
/06
/19
85
14
/06
/19
87
14
/06
/19
89
14
/06
/19
91
14
/06
/19
93
14
/06
/19
95
14
/06
/19
97
14
/06
/19
99
14
/06
/20
01
14
/06
/20
03
14
/06
/20
05
14
/06
/20
07
14
/06
/20
09
Nasq Comp overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Comp overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
19
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
600
1/1
1/1
97
1
01
/11
/19
73
01
/11
/19
75
01
/11
/19
77
01
/11
/19
79
01
/11
/19
81
01
/11
/19
83
01
/11
/19
85
01
/11
/19
87
01
/11
/19
89
01
/11
/19
91
01
/11
/19
93
01
/11
/19
95
01
/11
/19
97
01
/11
/19
99
01
/11
/20
01
01
/11
/20
03
01
/11
/20
05
01
/11
/20
07
Nasq Comp overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Comp overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
20
DJ Tran: June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: -0.13% (10 WMA), 7.7% (20 WMA), 2.9 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std
dev
10 WMA 6.190 -11.032 9.794 71.69 -31.52 11.280 10.300
20 WMA 9.240 -15.958 14.112 85.2 -48.26 10.970 13.220
40 WMA 13.110 -23.260 19.255 79.59 -60.97 17.350 10.480
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
03
/12
/19
28
03
/12
/19
32
03
/12
/19
36
03
/12
/19
40
03
/12
/19
44
03
/12
/19
48
03
/12
/19
52
03
/12
/19
56
03
/12
/19
60
03
/12
/19
64
03
/12
/19
68
03
/12
/19
72
03
/12
/19
76
03
/12
/19
80
03
/12
/19
84
03
/12
/19
88
03
/12
/19
92
03
/12
/19
96
03
/12
/20
00
03
/12
/20
04
03
/12
/20
08
DJ Trans overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ Trans overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
21
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
11
/02
/19
29
11
/02
/19
33
11
/02
/19
37
11
/02
/19
41
11
/02
/19
45
11
/02
/19
49
11
/02
/19
53
11
/02
/19
57
11
/02
/19
61
11
/02
/19
65
11
/02
/19
69
11
/02
/19
73
11
/02
/19
77
11
/02
/19
81
11
/02
/19
85
11
/02
/19
89
11
/02
/19
93
11
/02
/19
97
11
/02
/20
01
11
/02
/20
05
11
/02
/20
09
DJ Trans overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ Trans Overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
22
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1000
1/0
7/1
92
9
01
/07
/19
33
01
/07
/19
37
01
/07
/19
41
01
/07
/19
45
01
/07
/19
49
01
/07
/19
53
01
/07
/19
57
01
/07
/19
61
01
/07
/19
65
01
/07
/19
69
01
/07
/19
73
01
/07
/19
77
01
/07
/19
81
01
/07
/19
85
01
/07
/19
89
01
/07
/19
93
01
/07
/19
97
01
/07
/20
01
01
/07
/20
05
DJ Trans overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ Trans Overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
23
DJ Util: June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 2.5% (10 WMA), 3.4% (20 WMA), -2.1 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std
dev
10 WMA 4.850 -9.050 8.123 44.93 -35.1 9.700 10.000
20 WMA 7.040 -13.261 11.700 52.97 -37.61 10.170 10.530
40 WMA 9.940 -18.277 15.298 44.83 -45.23 12.470 11.800
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
04
/03
/19
29
04
/03
/19
33
04
/03
/19
37
04
/03
/19
41
04
/03
/19
45
04
/03
/19
49
04
/03
/19
53
04
/03
/19
57
04
/03
/19
61
04
/03
/19
65
04
/03
/19
69
04
/03
/19
73
04
/03
/19
77
04
/03
/19
81
04
/03
/19
85
04
/03
/19
89
04
/03
/19
93
04
/03
/19
97
04
/03
/20
01
04
/03
/20
05
04
/03
/20
09
DJ Utility overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ Utility Overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
24
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601
3/0
5/1
92
9
13
/05
/19
33
13
/05
/19
37
13
/05
/19
41
13
/05
/19
45
13
/05
/19
49
13
/05
/19
53
13
/05
/19
57
13
/05
/19
61
13
/05
/19
65
13
/05
/19
69
13
/05
/19
73
13
/05
/19
77
13
/05
/19
81
13
/05
/19
85
13
/05
/19
89
13
/05
/19
93
13
/05
/19
97
13
/05
/20
01
13
/05
/20
05
13
/05
/20
09
DJ Utility overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ Utility overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
25
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
503
0/0
9/1
92
9
30
/09
/19
33
30
/09
/19
37
30
/09
/19
41
30
/09
/19
45
30
/09
/19
49
30
/09
/19
53
30
/09
/19
57
30
/09
/19
61
30
/09
/19
65
30
/09
/19
69
30
/09
/19
73
30
/09
/19
77
30
/09
/19
81
30
/09
/19
85
30
/09
/19
89
30
/09
/19
93
30
/09
/19
97
30
/09
/20
01
30
/09
/20
05
DJ Utility overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ Utility overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
26
DJ C: June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 4.4% (10 WMA), 9.5% (20 WMA), 3.5 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive
std dev
% weeks
beyond -tive
std dev
10 WMA 3.620 -6.958 5.067 10.04 -23.73 13.490 10.07
20 WMA 5.680 -11.669 7.748 14.27 -33.78 12.800 9.75
40 WMA 8.290 -17.444 11.644 19.27 -43.53 12.540 10.82
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
03
/01
/19
91
03
/01
/19
92
03
/01
/19
93
03
/01
/19
94
03
/01
/19
95
03
/01
/19
96
03
/01
/19
97
03
/01
/19
98
03
/01
/19
99
03
/01
/20
00
03
/01
/20
01
03
/01
/20
02
03
/01
/20
03
03
/01
/20
04
03
/01
/20
05
03
/01
/20
06
03
/01
/20
07
03
/01
/20
08
03
/01
/20
09
DJ-AIG Commodi overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ-AIG Commodi overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
27
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
201
3/0
5/1
99
1
13
/05
/19
92
13
/05
/19
93
13
/05
/19
94
13
/05
/19
95
13
/05
/19
96
13
/05
/19
97
13
/05
/19
98
13
/05
/19
99
13
/05
/20
00
13
/05
/20
01
13
/05
/20
02
13
/05
/20
03
13
/05
/20
04
13
/05
/20
05
13
/05
/20
06
13
/05
/20
07
13
/05
/20
08
13
/05
/20
09
DJ-AIG Commodi overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ-AIG Commodi overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
28
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
DJ-AIG Commodi overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
DJ-AIG Commodi overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
29
Nasq F: June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 0.53% (10 WMA), 8.0% (20 WMA), -2.2 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std dev
10 WMA 4.760 -9.668 7.266 15.44 -22.6 8.920 9.940
20 WMA 6.400 -13.323 8.576 17.83 -29.03 12.010 10.760
40 WMA 8.940 -17.722 11.304 18.24 -40.43 15.110 12.010
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Nasq Fin overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
07/06/2004 07/06/2005 07/06/2006 07/06/2007 07/06/2008 07/06/2009
Nasq Fin overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
30
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
NAsq Fin overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
07/06/2004 07/06/2005 07/06/2006 07/06/2007 07/06/2008 07/06/2009
Nasq Fin overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
31
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Nasq Fin overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
07/06/2004 07/06/2005 07/06/2006 07/06/2007 07/06/2008 07/06/2009
Nasq Fin overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
32
Nasq B: June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: -3.4% (10 WMA), 0.9% (20 WMA), -13.9%(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive
std dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std
dev
10 WMA 4.340 -8.673 6.346 18.28 -24.98 16.820 8.300
20 WMA 6.480 -12.090 9.439 20.14 -33.6 22.900 8.810
40 WMA 10.010 -16.822 14.814 25.96 -41.6 28.350 8.780
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
24
/12
/19
90
24
/12
/19
91
24
/12
/19
92
24
/12
/19
93
24
/12
/19
94
24
/12
/19
95
24
/12
/19
96
24
/12
/19
97
24
/12
/19
98
24
/12
/19
99
24
/12
/20
00
24
/12
/20
01
24
/12
/20
02
24
/12
/20
03
24
/12
/20
04
24
/12
/20
05
24
/12
/20
06
24
/12
/20
07
24
/12
/20
08
Nasq Bank overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Bank overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
33
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
300
4/0
3/1
99
1
04
/03
/19
92
04
/03
/19
93
04
/03
/19
94
04
/03
/19
95
04
/03
/19
96
04
/03
/19
97
04
/03
/19
98
04
/03
/19
99
04
/03
/20
00
04
/03
/20
01
04
/03
/20
02
04
/03
/20
03
04
/03
/20
04
04
/03
/20
05
04
/03
/20
06
04
/03
/20
07
04
/03
/20
08
04
/03
/20
09
Nasq Bank overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Bank overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
34
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Nasq Bank overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Bank overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
35
Nasq T: Jun 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 3.05% (10 WMA), 14.3% (20 WMA), 17.4 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -tive std
dev
10 WMA 8.410 -14.861 11.89382 21.69 -30.37 13.32 14.930
20 WMA 13.220 -22.246 19.05433 33.62 -36.14 13.96 16.040
40 WMA 20.760 -33.832 29.35643 51.53 -51.5 14.7 17.830
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Nasq Tele overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Tele overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
36
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Nasq Tele overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Tele overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
37
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Nasq Tele overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Tele overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
38
Nasq Co: June 15th
, 2009 Overshoot: 5.0% (10 WMA), 14% (20 WMA), 16.5 %(40 WMA)
Std
Deviation
Down
side
aver
beyond
std dev
up side
aver
beyond
std dev
Highest
+tive
Overshoot
Lowest -
tive
overshoot
%age
weeks
beyond
+tive std
dev
% weeks
beyond -
tive std
dev
10 WMA 7.730 -13.979 11.697 7.73 -29.03 15.580 11.440
20 WMA 11.680 -20.236 17.590 11.68 -34.3 15.660 12.020
40 WMA 17.570 -28.871 27.635 17.58 -51.71 15.680 13.380
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Nasq Comput overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Comput overshoot beyond 10 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
39
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nasq Comput overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq Comput overshoot beyond 20 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
40
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Nasq Compt overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01/06/2004 01/06/2005 01/06/2006 01/06/2007 01/06/2008 01/06/2009
Nasq COmput overshoot beyond 40 WMA
Overshoot
By: Harman Bajwa Stock Overshoot Study bajwaharman@yahoo.com
41
Conclusion:- Based on this study one can rejig his/her portfolio accordingly.
We get a fair idea on which sector is heating up and which sector is still lying in cold.
Another point is, we can set our expectation limits on each sector and can decide on our
investment decisions.
Happy Investing
Harman Bajwa.
bajwaharman@yahoo.com
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