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Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Urban Transport: Introduction
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Outline
• Urban Transport Today
• Urban Transport Policy• The Land Use-Transport link• Road congestion as a Policy Driver• Transit as a Critical Element
• Arguments in support of Transit
Thanks to Mikel Murga for providing many of the figures throughout this presentation
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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US Urban Transport TodayTrends in Modal Split for Daily Travel in the United States (1969-2001)
Mode of Transportation 1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001
Auto 81.8 83.7 82.0 87.1 86.5 86.4
Transit 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6
Walk n/a 9.3 8.5 7.2 5.4 8.6
Bicycle n/a 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9
Other 5.0 3.7 6.5 3.0 5.4 2.5
Source: Socioeconomics of Urban Travel: Evidence from the 2001 NHTSby John Pucher and John L. Renne. Transportation Quarterly, Vol. 57, No. 3, Summer 2003 (49–77). Eno Transportation Foundation, Inc., Washington, DC.
Federal Highway Administration, Nationwide Personal Transportation Surveys 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990, and 1995; and National Household Travel Survey, 2001.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Transit Share of Commute for Metropolitan Areas Over 2 Million in Population (2000)
Sources: U.S. 2000 Census Journey to Work (http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/c2kbr-33.pdf) andU.S. Department of Transportation Census Transportation Planning Package http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ctpp/jtw/
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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US Urban Transport Today: Metropolitan AreasTrends in the Modal Split of the Home-to-Work Journey (1990-2000)
Source: Journey to Work Trends in the United States and its Major Metropolitan Areas 1960-2000
Modal Split %1990-2000 Car Transit Non-Motorized Work at homeGreater Boston 82.7-82.7 8.6-9.0 6.2-5.1 2.5-3.2
Chicago Counties 79.5-81.5 13.4-11.5 4.9-4.2 2.1-2.9
NY-NJ-CT-PA 65.8-65.7 24.8-24.9 7.0-6.4 2.4-3.0San Francisco -Oakland 81.3-81.0 9.3-9.5 5.9-5.5 3.5-4.1Washington DC-Baltimore 81.5-83.2 11.0-9.4 4.8-3.9 2.7-3.5
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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US Urban Transport Today: Significant Influences
• Suburbanization of homes, employment and attractors
• High car ownership and low operation costs
• Extensive urban road infrastructure
• Government policies towards roads and public transport
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Suburbanization:2000 Journey to Work
Jobs in:
Homes in: Central City Suburbs Total Homes
Central City 28.2 (27%) 9.2 (9%) 37.4 (36%)
Total Jobs 49.0 (48%) 53.8 (52%)
Suburbs 20.8 (20%) 44.6 (43%) 65.4 (64%)
Jobs in:
65%16%Suburbs
14%5%Central City
SuburbsCentral CityHomes in:
Jobs in:
2%6%Suburbs
6%14%Central City
SuburbsCentral CityHomes in:
A. Total Trips (in millions of daily trips)
B. Share of 1990-2000 Increase C. Public Transport Mode Share
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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US Urban Transport Today
• High car ownership levels• 600 cars per 1000 population
• High car usage• 10,000 veh-km per capita annually
• Low taxes, fees and user charges for car ownership and use• Sales taxes range from 5-8%• Users pay only 60% of road infrastructure costs in US• Petrol taxes are from 10-20% of European levels
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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• Urban parking supply is relatively widely availableand often free• 95% of car commuters enjoy free parking• 380 parking spaces per 1000 central city workers in 10 largest
US cities
• Highly developed urban road system• 6.6 metres of road per capita in 10 largest US cities; 3 times
European levels
US Urban Transport Today
Source: The Urban Transportation Crisis in Europe and North America, by John Pucher and Christian LeFevre, 1996.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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US Urban Transport Today:A Critical Assessment
• Public transport has been stabilized
• Many new rail initiatives in operation or under construction
• Some real success stories: New York City, Houston, Seattle
• Institutional change is occurring slowly
• Retention of political support
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The Land Use-Transport Link
• Transit makes high density central city possible
• Even in the US with transit serving only 2% of all person trips, it is critically important in shaping the big cities
• The home to work commute in Boston (and in other American cities like Chicago, New York, San Francisco..) shows the critical role of transit in its downtown
• The downtown job density makes it impossible to rely solely on the automobile
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The Land Use-Transport Link
• As a chicken and egg problem, job density and parking restrictions go hand in hand
• But parking restrictions do not impede economic development
• In fact, Boston development since its EPA led parking freeze in 1973 has been very impressive
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The Land Use-Transport Link:Boston’s 1973 Parking Freeze and …
Photographs of the Charles River and the Boston skyline. Imagesremoved due to copyright restrictions.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The Land Use-Transport Link
• Transit as a critical component of cities:• Economic Competitiveness• Quality of the Urban space
• In parallel, it requires:• Adequate parking policies• Substantial priority that can be easily implemented
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Road Congestion as the Policy Driver
Front cover images from the following books:
Downs, Anthony. Stuck in Traffic: Coping With Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion.Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1992. ISBN: 0815719248.
Downs, Anthony. Still Stuck in Traffic: Coping With Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion.Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1994. ISBN: 0815719299.
Images removed due to copyright restrictions.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Road Congestion as the Policy DriverCo
sts a
nd B
enef
itsEstimated Costs and Benefits, Ignoring Generated Traffic
Highway Investments:Business as Usual
Project CostsTravel Time SavingsVehicle Operating Cost Savings
Years
Costs
and
Ben
efits
Estimated Costs and Benefits, Considering Generated Traffic
Generated Travel BenefitsVehicle Operating Cost SavingsTravel Time SavingsInduced Travel External CostsDiverted Trip External CostsProject Expenses
Years
Figure by MIT OCW.
Road Congestion as a Policy Driver in spite of the system complexity
Delay
Road Construction
Travel Time
Trips per Day
Travel Desire
Adequacy of Public Transit
Pressure to Reduce Congestion
+
+
++
+
+ +
+
+++ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-+
+
-
-
Highway Capacity Capacity Expansion
Open the Hinterlands
Size of Region within Desired Travel Time
Discretionary Trips
Extra Miles
Delay
Delay
Delay
Delay
Average Trip Length
Cars in Region
Population and Economic Activityof Region
Cars per Region
Public Transit Ridership
Public Transit Network
Public Transit Fares
Public Transit Revenue
Road Congestion as a Policy Driver in Spite of the System Complexity
Public Transit Costs
PT Capacity Expansion
Cost Cutting
Route Expansion
FareIncrease
Take the bus?
Choke off Ridership
Can't get there on the buses
Move to the Burbs
Traffic Volume
Attractiveness of Driving
Public Transit Deficit
Figure by MIT OCW.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Transit as a critical element
• The high density of jobs and residences needed for a livable environment is only possible with an efficient transit system
• Transit can provide not only high economic efficiency, but an attractive and safe environment
• All high quality urban cores have a high percentage of non motorized and transit trips
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The higher the density, the higher…
… the percentage of sustainable modesSource: UITP Millenium Database
020
U.S.A. Western Europe
40Density (Inhabitants/Hectare)
80 160 320
20
Mod
al C
hoic
e (%
Pub
lic T
rans
port
-C
yclin
g-W
alki
ng)
40
60
80
100All Cities
Density (Inhabitants/Hectare) vs Modal Choice (% Public Transport + Cycling + Walking)
Figure by MIT OCW.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The cost of a balanced system
Economic sustainabilitySource: UITP Millenium Database
0,00 10 20 30
Modal Choice (% Public Transport - Cycling - Walking)
40 50 60 70 80 90
4,0
U.S.A.8,0
12,0
Tran
spor
t Cos
t (%
GD
P)
16,0
20,0
Developed Cities
Modal Choice (% Public Transport + Cycling + Walking) vs Transport Cost (% GDP)
Western Europe
Figure by MIT OCW.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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The high price of road fatalities
Source: UITP Millenium Database
Modal Choice (% Public Transport - Cycling - Walking)
00 10 20 30
50
Fata
litie
s (P
er M
illio
n In
habi
tant
s)
U.S.A.
40 50 60 70 80 90
100
150
200
250
Modal Choice (% Public Transport + Cycling + Walking) vs Fatalities
Western Europe
Developed Cities
Figure by MIT OCW.
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Traditional Arguments Supporting Transit
• Equity:• Access for those who cannot or do not choose to drive
• Congestion:• The need for a high-quality alternative
• Land use influence:• Public transport is necessary, but not sufficient to change trends
• Environmental:• Car technology strategies are effective
• Energy:• Car technology strategies are effective
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Other Arguments Supporting Transit
• Transit allows agglomeration of economic activity in cities:• New York, Boston, San Francisco, etc. could not have developed
without transit
• The current contribution of earlier investments in heavy rail is not valued today appropriately
• New investments bound to have a lasting impact – thus the need for a long view
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Other Arguments Supporting Transit
• Transit is a most effective tool to decrease external costsin cities:• These costs may exceed $1,000 per person per year
(Ref: External Costs Study for the Basque Country, 2006)
• They correspond in order of importance to accident-related costs, impacts on human health, congestion, noise impacts and the current market value of global warming
Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.201, Fall 2006Lecture 10
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Other Arguments Supporting Transit
• Business as usual translates into annual congestion cost today of more than $60 billion/ year (AASHTO)
• Implications of the number of automobiles in USA exceeding the number of licensed drivers
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